China-H Kazakhstan trade volume far surpasses Russia-Kazakhstan trade volume, and China's investment in Kazakhstan is approaching Russia's investment in Kazakhstan.
In the post-Soviet era, the former Soviet republics in Central Asia remain Russia’s only sphere of strong influence. Despite the ongoing four-year Ukraine-Russia conflict, which has somewhat weakened Russia’s strength.
According to recent remarks by the President of Kazakhstan during a meeting with a Chinese NPC delegation, China-Kazakhstan trade reached $49 billion. Undoubtedly, China is Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner. Meanwhile, traditional trade partner Russia has only $29 billion in trade with Kazakhstan.
$49 billion is an unprecedented figure, but it is not the end point—Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest economy, aims for bilateral trade to exceed $100 billion.
Energy trade is closely tied to geopolitics. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Western capital—especially from the United States—seized historically unprecedented opportunities in global energy: North Caspian oil in Kazakhstan reshaped the energy landscape of Eurasia. However, the valves controlling hydrocarbon flows were not opened toward the East—the "Turan Lowland’s" liquid black gold sees 80% exported to Europe.
Russia, with its century-long strategic vision akin to that of the British Empire in the dusty heart of Central Asia, also excels at playing the energy card. In the post-Soviet era, energy has widely been used as a "geopolitical currency": Russia offers energy below market prices to secure geopolitical alliances or control over key energy infrastructure. Beyond hydrocarbons, another ace in the Slavic hand is nuclear technology—capital- and technology-intensive.
China’s investment in Kazakhstan, totaling $29 billion, is approaching Russia’s $30 billion investment in Kazakhstan. With the advent of energy transition and the AI era, nuclear power is experiencing a revival: China will build Kazakhstan’s second and third nuclear power plants.
Sputnik News, Astana, May 28 — Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia is one of Kazakhstan’s main trading partners.
During Russia-Kazakhstan talks, Putin said: “Russia is one of Kazakhstan’s major trading partners, and trade volume is steadily growing in 2025.”
Kazakh President Tokayev noted that Russia and Kazakhstan have 177 joint projects, with total investment nearing $53 billion.
Speaking at the Russia-Kazakhstan summit, Tokayev said: “There are currently 177 joint projects, with total investment close to $53 billion.”
Tokayev added that his small-group meeting with Putin was highly productive.
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Kazakhstan on May 27 for a state visit. The Russian delegation accompanying him numbered more than 30 people, including Vice Prime Minister Ovchinnikov and nine federal ministers.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1866340559907852/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.