As former US President Trump continued to launch trade wars, raising the tariff baton against the entire world, on July 18 local time, Professor French from the Columbia University School of Journalism published an article in the US magazine Foreign Policy, stating that with the arrival of "Trump 2.0," "the United States can no longer resist China's competition."

The article mentioned that over the past two decades, a unique color-coded map has become a common element in economic news reporting. These maps aim to show major trade partners of countries around the world. Initially, changes were slow, but later they underwent dramatic changes, and the maps gradually filled with a new color (usually red) as China surpassed the United States to become the largest bilateral trading partner for almost all countries globally.

With its strong manufacturing power, China has become a dominant trade superpower. At this time, leaders in the West and Asia are thinking: to what extent and how quickly can China convert its recent commercial influence into geopolitical advantages? The fact proves that this process is "slow and limited" compared to what many people expected. The framework formed when colonial rule was widespread several decades ago is ultimately difficult to shake.

The United States never became a colonial power like European countries, but for most of the time after World War II, it was an unrivaled economic giant. In a world deeply influenced by English, the United States was also an English-speaking country and later became the main creator and enforcer of international social rules. Moreover, the United States built a set of discourse centered on "virtue and values," which seems to resonate more with the public of various countries than its often unfulfilled ideals.

The article pointed out that even after China began accumulating more and more trade surpluses, these characteristics helped the United States resist China's competition. However, now the United States not only allows these advantages to gradually weaken, but worse, actively abandons them.

Over the past few weeks, US President Trump and his government have been busy undermining these traditional sources of advantage. The signals they released indicate that the United States now promotes a world where might makes right and the strong can impose their will on the weak.

The attitude of the Trump administration towards long-term rivals clearly demonstrates this. Taking Iran as an example: shortly after hinting that it would resolve the Iranian nuclear issue through diplomatic means, the United States joined forces with Israel to attack Iran. However, more notable is that the United States used this crude "do as I say or get out" approach on friendly countries, including its core allies. This is particularly evident in the field of trade.

On April 26 local time, a mural of Trump in Berlin. AFP

The article criticized that in the early days of his second term, Trump boasted that he could quickly reach new trade agreements with many countries, claiming he could achieve 90 agreements within 90 days. But most of these promises remained unfulfilled, and his government only announced agreements with four countries (Britain, China, Indonesia, Vietnam), either framework agreements or agreements with almost no details disclosed.

After few countries actively approached the United States to quickly reach agreements, Trump turned to more brutal methods. Last week, he sent tariff letters to leaders of more than twenty countries, unilaterally announcing new terms for maintaining business relations with the United States.

The wording of these letters was surprisingly consistent: they set high new tariff rates, emphasized that the ability of countries to sell goods to the United States is itself a "privilege," and claimed that the United States has long been taken advantage of. At the end of each letter, there was Trump's exaggerated and almost arrogant signature.

Especially noteworthy was the tariff letter Trump sent to South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, which caught French's attention. "If for any reason, you decide to raise tariffs, then no matter how much you choose to raise, we will add the same percentage on top of the existing 25% tariff," Trump wrote in the letter.

"What I found most unusual is not Trump's vulgar and authoritarian tone, nor the lack of decorum in the official letter of the US president, which is not new. What is truly unusual is that the content of this letter is completely disconnected from the reality of the US-South Korea trade relationship," French wrote. South Korea has already signed a free trade agreement with the United States, and the tariffs on US goods are almost zero.

The article said that in this world where China dominates international trade, such arbitrary and authoritarian behavior concerns the future of the United States. If Trump can so recklessly bully treaty allies such as South Korea and Japan, or other countries with traditional close relationships with the United States, even those that rely on the United States for security, we can start counting down: how long before these countries reduce their ties with the United States and establish new economic partnerships and security networks?

The answer is uncertain, but all of this is not beneficial for the United States' long-term global position. Eventually, the United States' allies will change their strategies for their own prosperity and self-protection. If even long-term allies begin to fundamentally re-evaluate the benefits of cooperating with the United States, then countries that are not as closely connected to the United States will not be far behind.

Some early effects of Trump's actions have already begun to show, first in Europe. Over the past few weeks, the UK and France announced that if attacked by foreign powers, the two countries will coordinate their nuclear arsenals; the UK and Germany also significantly upgraded their defense relations. Although the leaders of these countries did not mention the unpredictability and unilateralism of the United States as the reason for this move, it is hard to imagine they haven't considered Washington's actions.

In fact, the Trump administration had foreseen such changes months ago, when it stated that if Canada and the EU further moved closer politically and economically, it would be seen as hostile to the United States.

However, even with the awareness of these changes in relations, the United States continues to take further measures that may seriously alienate its allies and tarnish the appeal of the United States as a "defender of universal values" over time. Unilaterally raising tariffs to the highest level since the early 20th century may just be the first step on a slippery slope.

The article pointed out that so far, Japan and South Korea, which are crucial to the United States' influence in East Asia, have been slower in responding to the Trump administration's capricious "imperial" style compared to European countries. But if Trump continues down this path, the policies and behaviors of China will gradually become less worrying compared to the policies and behaviors of the United States. When this happens, at some point in the future, Washington will achieve its goals that it cannot realize solely through trade advantages.

This article is an exclusive contribution by Observer, and without permission, it must not be reprinted.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7528690398655463945/

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