Reference News Network, August 7 report: The "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" published an article on August 1 titled "The Future of Africa - Regional and International Diplomatic Relations Are Becoming Closer," authored by Professor Shingo Takeuchi of the Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. The full text is as follows:

What are the elements that determine the future of Africa? In abstract terms, it is internal driving forces and external relations. Among them, the primary factor determining Africa's internal driving force is the rapid population growth. How to incorporate the explosive growth of the youth population into the social system has a decisive significance. In addition, the relationship between Africa and the outside world will also have a significant impact on its future. This article will explore Africa's development prospects from these two dimensions.

While most regions of the world face stagnant or declining population growth, Africa's population continues to grow. According to United Nations forecasts, the global population will reach about 10.2 billion by 2100, with the population of sub-Saharan Africa reaching approximately 3.3 billion, accounting for about one-third. The median age in this region is currently around 18 years old, and it is expected to rise to about 34 years by the end of this century, maintaining a generally young population.

Generally speaking, from the perspective of reducing the burden of social security, the growth of a young population has a positive impact on economic development. However, the prerequisite is that society can provide sufficient job opportunities. In this regard, African countries are facing difficulties in general.

The fundamental reason for the lack of jobs is the weak industrial base, which is undeniable. African countries generally rely on agriculture and mining, while manufacturing, which can create a large number of jobs, is not sufficiently developed.

Although many countries take crude oil and other mineral resources as their main export commodities, unlike oil-producing countries in the Middle East, Africa has a large population, and relying solely on resource exports cannot significantly increase national income. In fact, Africa has become one of the regions with the most pronounced wealth gaps in the world.

Therefore, Africa is unlikely to replicate the East Asian model in the short term, where manufacturing becomes the engine of economic growth. However, with population growth and the development of other industries, Africa's economy will continue to expand. A possible future development trend is that the total economic volume continues to grow, but the wealth gap remains significant.

Africa has long been plagued by armed conflicts, a problem that cannot be ignored.

If we only discuss internal driving forces, due to the significant wealth gap and political instability, the development prospects of Africa are not optimistic. Then, what kind of relationships will African countries build with the outside world in the future? It can be determined that African countries will not go into isolation, but will establish closer ties with countries inside and outside the region.

Africa has always attached importance to regional diplomacy. Under the influence of pan-Africanist ideas, African countries have a strong sense of regional cooperation. In addition to the African Union, Africa has established regional economic organizations such as the West African Economic Community and the Southern African Development Community. Regardless of the effectiveness of these organizations, African countries continuously build mechanisms to promote regional economic development and security cooperation through these regional institutions.

In addition, diplomatic relations between African countries and countries outside the region will inevitably become closer in the future. The reason is that emerging countries are rapidly deepening their relations with African countries, and regardless of ideological positions, building cooperative relationships with African countries has become increasingly important.

In recent years, the main countries strengthening their relations with Africa have been emerging economies such as China, Middle Eastern countries, and Russia. For these countries, Africa's market, resources, and labor force have great appeal. In addition, areas such as the "Horn of Africa" have significant geopolitical significance, thus attracting attention from neighboring countries.

In today's international politics, the stance of multilateralism and the emphasis on international coordination is engaged in a fierce struggle with unilateralism. From the former perspective, issues such as poverty, conflict, and environmental destruction faced by Africa are topics that need to be addressed globally, and all countries should deepen their commitments to Africa.

On the other hand, even countries with a unilateralist position have a strong motivation to get closer to Africa. The charm of rare mineral resources goes without saying, and in recent years, the situation of countries strengthening contact with Africa over immigration issues has also increased significantly. As a representative of unilateralism, the Trump administration of the United States is also seeking to strengthen relations with African countries for purposes such as obtaining mineral resources and solving illegal immigration problems.

While facing many challenges, deepening international connections will be the future picture of Africa. The proportion of Africa's population in the global population is increasing, and for countries outside the region, there is no option of "not establishing relations with Africa." Whether willing or not, all countries will have to deal with African countries.

Although African countries face many challenges, if their population and economic scale continue to expand, their political influence will inevitably increase. Japan also needs to strategically explore how to build relations with Africa. (Translated by Ma Xiaoyun)

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7535735023626912265/

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