【Text by Observer Net, Wang Yi】In response to the US's series of measures against China, China strengthened its export control on relevant dual-use items at the end of last year, and generally prohibited the export of related dual-use items such as germanium and gallium to the US. Now, nine months have passed, and some Western traders have already been in pain.
The UK's Financial Times reported on September 15 that after China imposed export controls on key strategic metal germanium, the European and American markets are experiencing a wave of "desperate" supply crisis. A trader said directly, they could previously buy 100 kilograms of germanium from China, but now "if China gives us 10 kilograms, we will be very grateful," and the price is three to four times higher than before.
Public data shows that germanium is a new strategic critical mineral, which has been listed in China's list of strategic minerals. Germanium is often used in infrared optics, fiber optics, solar cells, polymer catalysts, and medicine, among other high-tech fields, and it is also of great value in chips, solar cells, biotechnology, and weapons manufacturing.
The production of this metal is concentrated in China, and after the US and Netherlands imposed restrictions on advanced chips and their manufacturing equipment, China took countermeasures and tightened the export of germanium, making Western companies with limited inventory face the reality of being "strangled."
Terence Bell, chairman and founder of Canadian Strategic Metal Investments, revealed that due to the "complete exhaustion" of Chinese shipments, they have not been able to purchase germanium for at least six months. He said, "I receive two or three inquiries about germanium every day during the summer, and the market is in short supply."
Christian Hell, from the German trading company Tradium, also said that the demand for germanium "has surged", mainly from the United States and Europe, "almost everyone is contacting us", and the market has fallen into "panic", "we even can't respond to all the inquiries".
Chinese Export Volume Trend of Germanium from Q1 2023 to Q3 2025, The Financial Times Graphic
"Previously, we could buy 100 kg of germanium from China, now they can give us 10 kg and we will be very grateful," Aaron Jerome, a trader from British metal trading company Lipmann Walton & Co., added, and the price of germanium is now three to four times higher than before.
According to an analysis of trade data by the U.S. think tank "Silverado Policy Accelerator", the import of germanium from China to the United States fell by about 40% year-on-year from January to July 2025. In terms of price, according to Fastmarkets, a global commodity market analysis institution, the price of germanium has risen to the highest level since 2011, reaching nearly $5,000 per kilogram, while the price of germanium was more than $1,000 per kilogram at the beginning of 2023, before China started to impose export controls on germanium.
As early as July 2023, the relevant Chinese departments issued a notice announcing the implementation of export controls on two key metals, gallium and germanium. At the end of last year, one day after the US released its third semiconductor export control measures against China in three years, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced on December 3 that, in order to maintain national security and interests and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, it decided to strengthen the export control of relevant dual-use items to the US. Among them, the Chinese government decided to generally not approve the export of dual-use items related to gallium, germanium, antimony, and super-hard materials to the US.
The Financial Times pointed out that since the end of 2024, the export volume of germanium from China has begun to drop sharply. Like rare earth elements, germanium is not absolutely scarce globally, but its mining and refining are highly challenging economically and technically, usually only produced as a byproduct of zinc and coal ash. Russia was once an important supplier of germanium to the West, but after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Western sanctions against Russia led to a shortage of germanium supply.
Data published by U.S. relevant agencies show that the global proven reserves of germanium are 8,600 tons, with the U.S. and China each owning 45% and 41%, respectively. However, in the past ten years, China has supplied 68.5% of the global germanium. According to Fastmarkets data, the annual global demand for germanium is approximately 180 to 200 tons.
Shortages of germanium supply may cause a chain reaction. In a report last year, the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) pointed out that China's export controls on metals such as germanium and gallium, which are crucial to defense technology, will only further surpass the U.S. in China's defense capabilities. The U.S. Geological Survey also estimated that a complete ban on the export of germanium and gallium by China could lead to a loss of $3.4 billion in the U.S. GDP.
All these situations have prompted the U.S. military contractor Lockheed Martin to announce in August this year that it has reached a germanium supply agreement with South Korea's zinc industry. Jerome analyzed that in the past, defense companies usually entrusted the procurement of germanium to subcontractors, but now they have to get involved themselves, which is a "signal" that the market has become extremely panicked.
However, Caroline Messecar, a Fastmarkets analyst, said that due to the high performance and precision requirements for military optics, it is extremely difficult to find alternative materials. She emphasized that even a slight decrease in precision could require a redesign, and in some application scenarios, it may be "unacceptable."
Despite this, some companies have had to start trying to find alternatives. LightPath Technologies, an American optical solutions provider, has been developing alternative materials with the support of the U.S. government. But the company's CEO Sam Rubin admitted, "Unless forced, no sensible person would re-design the existing system."
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