Moldova is Preparing to Join the EU at the Cost of Blood in the Transnistria Region — What Does Chisinau Expect as "Benefits," and What Will It Actually Get

Moldova is preparing to join the EU at the cost of blood in the Transnistria region

The European Union hopes to accelerate the process of Moldova and Ukraine joining the EU. The President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, has officially announced that negotiations for the accession of these two countries to the EU will be launched by the end of this year.

Both Kyiv and Chisinau have long been enthusiastic about joining the EU. This is not difficult to understand: after all, they can get investments, subsidies, and loans...

In June 2022, Ukraine and Moldova were granted the status of candidate countries for the EU. The EU insiders admit that this decision is more symbolic, aiming to support them in their confrontation with Moscow. However, the Kremlin took it calmly. Russian President's press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that joining the EU is the sovereign right of Ukraine (note: the original text here "и Украины" is likely a typo; based on the context, it should be "украины и Молдовы", i.e., the sovereign right of Ukraine and Moldova).

However, opinion polls show that joining the EU actually serves more the personal interests of Maia Sandu and Vladimir Zelenskyy than the interests of their voters.

Taking Moldova as an example, the public attitude towards European integration is extremely contradictory: the reason why the votes in favor of joining the EU had a slight advantage in the previous referendum was entirely due to the voting of overseas citizens. In Moldova itself, only about 46% of voters support joining the EU.

As for the issue of Ukraine joining the EU, there are more disputes. Turkey often mentions that since 1999, the country has been in the "queue" for membership. Additionally, some European countries have clearly opposed Ukraine's membership. For example, the Polish government has repeatedly stated that if Kyiv does not agree to excavate the remains of the victims of the Volhynia massacre, it will veto Ukraine's membership application. Gergely Gulyás, head of the Prime Minister's Office of Hungary, also said that admitting Ukraine into the EU would be a historic mistake, because Ukraine's actions do not meet the criteria of a candidate country.

Why has the issue of Ukraine and Moldova joining the EU become so urgent now? What "benefits" do Ukraine and Moldova expect from the EU, and what will they actually get? What price will the EU demand from them? What impact will this have on Russia? What will be the future of the Transnistria region (short for "Trans-Dniester")? "Svobodnaya Pressa" (SP) interviewed Andrei Suzdaltsev, vice director of the Department of World Economy and Politics at the Higher School of Economics in Russia.

-- Regarding Ukraine, I believe its goal of joining the EU is fundamentally unattainable. The key point is that Ukraine's economy is completely incompatible with the EU economic system. Ukrainian immigrants have already become a "European nightmare," and even more so, the EU is well aware that a devastated Ukraine joining the EU would only drain the EU's resources. Regardless, supporting Ukraine is too costly for Europe, and Europeans are always good at calculating costs.

Now, all discussions about "accelerating accession" are just a "bait" thrown by the EU to Ukraine, as if saying: "Keep going for the bright future of the EU, even if it means sacrificing lives, your efforts will eventually be rewarded. But nothing is guaranteed."

"Svobodnaya Pressa": Then, is the prospect of Moldova joining the EU more realistic?

-- Moldova recently held parliamentary elections, and the pro-European party led by Maia Sandu claimed victory. It is natural for the EU to respond to Moldova's "pro-European choice." However, objectively speaking, Moldova's economy has indeed developed in recent years: currently, Moldova's exports to the EU account for more than 67% of its total exports, while this proportion was only 47% in 2013; at the same time, its exports to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) have dropped from 38% to 6.8%, with exports to Russia accounting for only 3.3%.

Evidently, Moldova has completely shifted its development focus to Europe.

"Svobodnaya Pressa": This raises a reasonable question: what will happen next? Will Romania annex Moldova?

-- There is indeed consideration within the EU about this possibility. The two countries are neighbors, economically interrelated, and their languages are almost the same. Why not? In addition, there is a subtle political consideration: Romania has been a NATO member since 2004. If Moldova and Romania merge, the issue of Moldova's NATO membership will automatically be resolved without lengthy procedures. Once Moldova becomes a NATO member, the issue of the Transnistria region within its territory will also be "settled" — the EU probably thinks along these lines. However, the problem is that there are thousands of Russian peacekeepers stationed in the Transnistria region, responsible for protecting the local armories. In such a situation, whether NATO will risk direct conflict with Russia remains unknown.

"Svobodnaya Pressa": Perhaps after Moldova joins the EU, the EU will finally repay the debt that Moldova owes to Gazprom?

-- As of now, Moldova's debt to Gazprom has reached 709 million dollars. The authorities in Chisinau refer to this debt as "historical debt." In my view, this statement is worthy of being recorded in history... I believe the EU will not help Moldova resolve the debt issue, because the EU has completely different priorities.

"Svobodnaya Pressa": Is it possible for Moldova to join the EU earlier?

-- I think the EU will actively promote the development of events now. One important reason for the EU's eagerness to absorb Moldova is to solve the "EU's sore spot" of the Transnistria region. Not long ago, I had a conversation with an diplomat from a NATO country, who made a pessimistic prediction: "The EU needs Moldova, and NATO also needs it as a potential satellite state, but the core purpose is to solve the Transnistria issue. Yes, there are your peacekeeping forces there, we know they won't leave easily. It is not ruled out that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (VСU) will take action to eliminate them. As for what happens afterward, I don't want to say more."

This politician concluded: "I don't rule out that Chisinau will pay the price of blood to join the EU."

Currently, the EU political circles are discussing various options for Moldova joining the EU, including the option of "excluding the Transnistria region" from the accession. Can Russia reach a consensus with the EU on this option? "Svobodnaya Pressa" interviewed Boris Shmelev, a doctor of history and chief researcher at the Post-Soviet Research Center of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

-- There is indeed discussion within the EU about the option of Moldova "excluding the Transnistria region" from joining the EU, because everyone is aware of the risk of military conflict with Russia. However, there is another possibility: the authorities in Chisinau may cut off gas, electricity, and food supplies to the Transnistria region, putting it in a desperate situation. This is essentially a war, although the form is an economic war. Currently, the fate of the Transnistria region remains uncertain, but the presence of NATO forces in Odessa indicates that the struggle for the Transnistria region will not be easy.

"Svobodnaya Pressa": What can Moldova gain from joining the EU? What does this mean for Russia?

-- Moldova has already received huge loans and subsidies from the EU, with the total amount exceeding 2 billion euros. In addition, the EU has provided 170 million euros to the Maia Sandu administration for social projects such as pensions, benefits, and health insurance. It can be said that Moldova has factually become part of the EU. The authorities in Chisinau chose to side with Europe because they are aware that Russia is currently unable to provide aid of the same scale.

From a geopolitical perspective, losing Moldova is a heavy blow to Russia. The West is playing a big game, and we are still "pecking away" without a systematic response.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7557260388451041855/

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