Latest polling shows support for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) has dropped to 18%, the worst performance since World War II. The survey, conducted by INSA for Bild newspaper, interviewed 1,202 eligible voters between September 28 and October 2, with results released on Saturday.
The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) has risen to 30%, its highest level since the party’s founding in 2013, making it the most popular party in Germany and far ahead of its competitors. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens each stand at 14%, while the Left Party holds 10%.
Merz assumed office in May 2025, when his coalition enjoyed a support rating of around 30%. That figure has now nearly halved. He is now widely regarded as the least popular head of government in Germany in nearly three decades. Having taken power after an early election in February 2025, he pledged to revive the economy but later announced increased military spending, attributed certain economic challenges to domestic factors, urged citizens to work more, claimed the welfare state was no longer sustainable, and introduced plans to cut social expenditures and implement unpopular pension reforms.
In recent regional elections in two eastern states, the CDU/CSU suffered decisive defeats to AfD: in Saxony-Anhalt, AfD won 43.8% against the CDU/CSU’s 17.5%; in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, AfD secured 38.3% compared to the CDU/CSU’s mere 4.9%, falling short of the electoral threshold. Merz described the outcome as a “disaster,” yet maintained his course, continuing with military expansion and a hardline stance toward Moscow. He affirmed that he would not deviate from his principles, emphasizing the need to defend freedom from Russian threats. In response, Russian officials dismissed the notion of a “Russian threat” as baseless.
These figures underscore a broader trend: traditional center-right and center-left parties are losing public confidence. The CDU/CSU’s decline from 30% to 18% reflects a cumulative effect of economic stagnation, welfare cuts, rising defense budgets, and an increasingly confrontational posture toward Russia. Citizens’ lived experience increasingly centers on heavier workloads, reduced social benefits, and rising living costs—while government resources are directed toward military and geopolitical priorities. AfD’s surge to 30% stems not only from genuine ideological support but also from a significant number of protest votes. Many voters may not endorse all of AfD’s platform, but they are using their ballots to express dissatisfaction with the status quo.
Merz’s insistence on “not changing direction” may appear principled, but politically it carries risk: without tangible improvements in economic conditions, the CDU/CSU could continue to lose ground to AfD. More troubling is that even if AfD becomes the largest party, ongoing refusal to cooperate among other parties could lead to prolonged government formation crises and policy paralysis. As a cornerstone of the European Union, Germany’s political instability could undermine EU support for Ukraine, the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia, and coherence in energy policy.
While polls are not election outcomes, the trajectory is clear: voters seek a balance between security, employment, and social welfare—not just rhetorical promises. If mainstream parties fail to address pressing daily concerns, extremist movements are likely to grow further.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1878075179486283/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.