【By Guan察者网, Ruan Jiaqi】

Soybeans are not only a key raw material for edible oil and animal feed, but also a core commodity in Sino-US trade relations, and their strategic importance to China is self-evident.

According to a report released this week by Goldman Sachs analysts, as China accelerates its efforts to achieve food self-sufficiency, including enhancing the resilience of its food supply chain against trade shocks, China's soybean import dependency is expected to drop below 30% over the next decade from 90% currently.

The report pointed out that China's strategy for managing soybean demand has reduced annual consumption by 15 million tons between 2021 and 2024. This initiative, launched during the first round of the Sino-US trade war in 2018, "has played a crucial role in alleviating trade barriers and uncertainties between China and the US, as well as between China and Latin America."

US soybean monthly exports and exports to China. Screenshot from a September 2024 paper published by Purdue University, data from the US Department of Agriculture

China imports more than 100 million tons of soybeans annually, accounting for about 60% of global soybean trade volume, and has long been the largest buyer of American soybean farmers.

In recent years, due to intensified trade friction, the impact of climate change, and the reality of limited arable land for 1.4 billion people, the importance of food security has become increasingly prominent, with soybeans being the largest single agricultural product imported by China.

Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in their assessment report, "Soybeans are a core pain point in China's food security domain, facing issues such as low self-sufficiency, supply vulnerability to trade fluctuations, and a highly concentrated source of imports."

The report pointed out that China has taken multiple measures, including reducing the proportion of soybeans added to animal feed, improving feed conversion efficiency, and optimizing feed protein formula structures. This soybean strategy "is gradually increasing soybean alternative capacity, thereby strengthening the food security defense line."

Analysts assessed that overall, China has "achieved significant results," successfully reversing the trend of continuously rising soybean import dependency over the past 30 years.

Additionally, three years ago, data had estimated that due to the dual pressure of demand growth and limited arable land resources, China's arable land gap could reach 90 million hectares by 2032.

The new report revised this estimate, stating, "Thanks to advances in farming technology, we now estimate that China's arable land gap has narrowed to 840 million hectares, and there is a clear path plan indicating that by 2035, this gap will further narrow to 5 million hectares."

Goldman Sachs analysts believe that in the future, China may further reduce its soybean imports. These measures may have been implemented following commitments made to Washington.

Recent statements by officials in the Trump administration indicated that China has agreed to purchase at least 12 million tons of US soybeans "this season" and at least 25 million tons annually for the next three years.

According to a report by NBC, since the resumption of purchases in late October, China has conducted at least 10 rounds of soybean purchases of varying sizes. As of Tuesday of this week, the cumulative purchase amount has reached approximately 2.85 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture also announced on Monday that a private exporter had reported an additional order of 132,000 tons of soybean exports to China.

Some U.S. media then quickly made a big deal, claiming that China's soybean procurement progress in recent weeks is far from meeting the requirements stated by the White House that "the agreed procurement volume should be completed by the end of this year."

In the past two weeks, U.S. Treasury Secretary Brian Deese and Trade Representative Katherine Tai have both made statements confirming that China has always complied with the terms of the bilateral trade agreement with the United States. They directly refuted the claim of "stagnation in China's soybean procurement."

On December 9, during a Senate hearing, Tai responded to an inquiry, stating that the deadline for China to purchase 12 million tons of soybeans from the United States was not the end of this year, but rather the end of the "growing season."

NBC reported that Deese also used the term "growing season" in his recent statement to describe the deadline for China's procurement. At that time, he emphasized that China's current procurement pace "completely can complete" the 12 million-ton procurement target. Regarding the specific completion deadline, he mentioned, "I think it will be February 28, 2026."

Soybean trade is of great significance to U.S. agriculture. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture show that in 2024, soybeans accounted for about 20% of the income from U.S. cash crops, worth $46.8 billion, with about a quarter sold to China. However, due to the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, China temporarily suspended purchases of U.S. agricultural products for several months, causing billions of dollars in losses to U.S. farmers and grain traders.

Latest developments in Sino-U.S. economic and trade negotiations show that both sides are promoting the implementation of agreements through high-level dialogue. On December 5, Chinese lead negotiator for Sino-U.S. economic and trade, Vice Premier He Lifeng, held a video call with U.S. lead negotiators, U.S. Treasury Secretary Brian Deese and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai. Both sides had in-depth and constructive exchanges and will continue to play the role of the Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, constantly expanding the cooperation list and reducing the problem list, promoting the continuous stable improvement of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations.

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Original: toutiao.com/article/7582970420429718057/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.