Reference Message Network reported on April 14 that the website of "L'Express" weekly in France published an interview titled "A New Disaster Awaits America After Trump's Tariffs" - An Exclusive Interview with Ian Goldin, Expert on Globalization and Development and Professor at Oxford University, UK. The reporter was Thomas Malet. Here are some excerpts:

Reporter asked: Does Trump's large-scale tariffs mean the end of globalization? UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said, "Globalization has ended, and we have entered a new era."

Ian Goldin answered: That is wrong. We are undoubtedly witnessing the end of one phase of globalization and entering a new phase. If globalization refers to the cross-border flow of goods, services, ideas, and people, then this statement holds true. We have entered the Asian phase of globalization, while the Atlantic region is regressing. Trade flows are stronger than ever in Asia, and they will increase further due to America's withdrawal.

Certainly, this is not the end of the dark side of globalization either. Global warming will not slow down because of tariffs. As Trump challenges institutions managing the risk of pandemics, the spread of pandemics will increase. The possibility of conflicts is also increasing because protectionism will only exacerbate tensions between nations. Therefore, Trump will intensify the negative impacts of globalization.

Question: To what extent has Trump undermined America's soft power, which has been one of America's main advantages since World War II?

Answer: Trump has already weakened America's "hard power." When Trump took office, the American economy was strong, but these tariffs are a disaster. It took America 80 years to build "soft power"; now, destroying this "soft power" took only 70 days. Its impact will be long-term, affecting at least one generation, as building trust takes a long time.

Today, trade agreements and free trade agreements can be torn up overnight, and no one trusts America anymore. The weaker a country becomes, the higher the tariffs Trump imposes. Therefore, "Global South" countries can only distance themselves from America, which will only enhance China's, India's, or Russia's influence.

Question: Is Trump giving his main rival China a gift?

Answer: While Trump punishes the American economy, China will strengthen its trade with other countries around the world. Biden's CHIPS and Science Act attempts to delay China's development, but we see how fast they are developing electric vehicles or artificial intelligence models.

Europe pays too much attention to the transatlantic relationship. However, we have seen how unreliable America is as a partner. Similarly, it is obvious that the future of the global economy is shifting eastward. If it shows strategic significance, Europe will deepen its relations with all of Asia, including India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and of course China. Europe can no longer simply follow America's lead.

Question: Trump claims that as a return for the pain caused by the tariffs, he will re-industrialize America.

Answer: This is a fantasy. First, re-industrialization takes a long time and cannot be achieved in a day or a week. Building a factory may take 10 years, and these factories are inseparable parts of the global supply chain. We need investment, which often comes from abroad. These factories serve not only the American market but also the global market. If other countries in the world engage in a trade war with America, it brings great uncertainty to businesses.

Most importantly, if factories move back to America, they will no longer employ the workers who lost their jobs in the 1980s and 1990s due to factory relocation. Now, everything is automated. New investments in manufacturing focus on machines rather than people. New factories will not provide job opportunities for those who voted for Trump. Factories may be rebuilt in America, but not as people imagine. (Translated by Liu Zhuo)

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493122041264996903/

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