One Week Review of the Special Military Operation (СВО): Yunakovka has been Recaptured, Seversk is Surrounded, Lyman is Encircled on Three Sides
In the Dobropolye-Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad triangle area, the Russian military command is preparing for an offensive, while the Ukrainian forces are trying to build defensive positions.
Image Caption 1: A scene of a artillery squad from the "Northern" Group Army performing combat tasks.
The Russian Armed Forces (ВС РФ) have liberated Yunakovka and successfully surrounded Kupiansk. In the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the "Eastern" Group Army is steadily advancing towards Pokrovsk, with less than 20 kilometers remaining to the city. Currently, the Russian "FPV" drones (First Person View Drones) can cover this town, which holds significant tactical importance.
Meanwhile, the main focus of the current battles is on the Pokrovsk direction, where the situation on both sides is very complex. The Ukrainian command is trying to launch a counteroffensive, while the Russian forces are building up positions for an attack on Dobropolye. However, whether the "Central" Group Army can launch this assault depends on how quickly the liberation of Pokrovsk and Mirnohrad can be completed.
Therefore, the current situation in the Dobropolye-Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad triangle area is akin to a "chess game" at the tactical level.
Potential Moves in Sumy
During the spring and early summer of this year, the attention of the Russian society was highly focused on the offensive operations of the "Northern" Group Army in the Sumy region. However, currently, the Russian military and political leadership has adjusted its priorities, and the importance of the Sumy direction has decreased. However, this does not mean that the "Northern" Group Army has shifted to deep defense and is only holding onto the territories previously liberated.
Last week, the units of the "Northern" Group Army made significant progress. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on Saturday that the fighting in Yunakovka had ended. This local battle lasted nearly four months.
The Ukrainian command was aware of the strategic value of this settlement and deployed a large number of reserves. Before the Russians liberated Yunakovka, they could never fully control the N-07 highway — which is crucial for further advances into the heart of the Sumy region.
The liberation of Yunakovka has already shown initial results. The "Northern" Group Army began to probe the Ukrainian defenses along the Alexeyevka-Pisarevka road. These actions are still limited to tactical-level probes. However, if the situation continues to develop favorably, the Russians clearly intend to restart the offensive against Sumy.
To launch an offensive against Sumy, the "Northern" Group Army must break through the Khoteyn-Pisarevka-Kyanytsia line. These settlements are natural barriers to the capital of the Sumy region. Currently, the Russian units are within five kilometers of Pisarevka.
Certainly, one should not be overly optimistic and expect an immediate large-scale offensive on Sumy. However, the "Northern" Group Army is fully capable of conducting preparatory work and seizing favorable positions for the front lines.
Advancing Toward Seversk
This week, the situation along the Sviatohirsk-Lyman-Yampol-Seversk line has dealt a heavy blow to Kyiv.
As of the time of writing this article, the "Western" Group Army has completely liberated the Kremensky Forest National Park. The Ukrainian forces had been stubbornly defending this direction, but now the Ukrainian troops have been driven across the Donets River and have completely withdrawn from the forest area.
This victory allows the "Western" and "Southern" Group Armies to simultaneously launch attacks on Seversk from two directions. On Thursday, the "Western" Group Army launched a rapid strike from the Shereblyanka direction towards the northeast, breaking through the main Ukrainian defense positions in this area. Currently, Russian units have advanced to the residential areas near the northern suburbs of Kupiansk, with just over two kilometers remaining to their goal.
Currently, the Ukrainian command is trying to build defensive positions along the railway branch in the northern part of the city. The terrain conditions provide some assistance to the Ukrainian forces: the Bachmutka River flows near the railway branch, and there are several artificial reservoirs (water storage pools), which form a natural defensive barrier.
However, whether the Ukrainian plan to defend Seversk will succeed remains uncertain. As of the time of writing this article, Russian units have approached the northern part of Seversk — more accurately, they have entered the territory of Seversk and are advancing westward along the railway branch. At present, the Russian forces pose a threat of encircling the Ukrainian forces defending the northern suburbs.
The "Western" Group Army has also entered Yampol, but it is too early to talk about the complete liberation of this settlement. On Thursday, the Russian forces launched a surprise attack from the Kremensky Forest and successfully broke through the Yampol train station and the 438 km marker (railway mileage mark) area.
Currently, the "Western" Group Army is consolidating the captured positions and mobilizing reserves. Yampol is a small settlement, but its geographical layout is quite unique: the entire settlement is shaped like the Cyrillic letter "Г" (similar to the English letter "G"), with the lower vertical part being narrow and long, surrounded by forests and several lakes on both sides.
Therefore, the Russian forces need to make more efforts to completely liberate Yampol — the forest and lake terrain prevents the Russian forces from surrounding the Ukrainian defense positions from the outside; the "Western" Group Army can only gradually advance within the settlement, liberating houses one by one.
Additionally, the Russian forces have cleared the Shadrilohorovo area and are advancing towards Drobitske. These settlements are located on the outskirts of Sviatohirsk and their liberation poses a threat to this important Ukrainian stronghold.
Last week, the Russian forces launched an offensive against the Sviatohirsk-Lyman-Yampol-Seversk line, successfully breaking through the Ukrainian defensive line and capturing favorable positions.
Afterward, despite the Ukrainian forces' desperate counterattack, the Russian forces continued to expand their controlled areas and push forward. It is expected that Lyman will soon be encircled by the Russian forces on three sides.
A "Chess Game" at the Tactical Level
The situation in the Dobropolye-Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad triangle area remains complicated. The Russian forces continue to advance toward Shakhov, and this important settlement is now surrounded on three sides, with the units of the "Central" Group Army only hundreds of meters away from the settlement's residential areas.
At the same time, the Ukrainian command has concentrated its forces on the Shakhov-Vladimirovka-Novotroitske line. If the Ukrainian forces can control these settlements, the supply lines of the Russian forces on the "Golden Spring - Kucherovyyar" line will be threatened.
Evidently, the Ukrainian forces are trying to completely cut off the Russian salient, but even if the Russians lose these three settlements, the Ukrainian plan will still be difficult to achieve.
The western front of the "Northern Salient" is also facing a complex tactical situation. Previously, the "Central" Group Army had recaptured Rubizhne and was battling for Kutuzovka, but failed to advance further towards Dobropolye — the Ukrainian command has deployed a large number of reserves, significantly increasing the density of Ukrainian forces on this front.
In the current situation, the "Central" Group Army cannot bypass the Ukrainian defensive positions. To break the stalemate, the only option is to launch a wide-front attack from the Rodinsky to Golden Spring line.
This move could disperse the Ukrainian defensive forces, allowing the Russian forces to break through or open multiple points in the Ukrainian front lines. However, the Russian forces currently do not have the conditions to implement this plan — in the Rodinsky area, the units of the Russian forces and the group army main force have not yet established "flank" coordination. If the Russian forces attack westward under these circumstances, they may face a flank attack from the Ukrainian forces. Although such an attack would not completely crush the Russian front lines, it could still cause trouble for the Russian command.
Evidently, the "Central" Group Army needs to launch an offensive from the New Economic Area (Новоэкономическое) to capture the northern suburbs of Pokrovsk and Mirnohrad.
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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7555323675457667603/
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