The Philippine opposition is leaderless, turning the 2028 election into a showdown between two powerful families.
Rubio has announced he will not run for president.
This former vice president and opposition leader has decided to return to Naga City to focus on local governance. On the surface, this appears to be a "shift of focus," but in reality, it amounts to admitting that the opposition has no viable candidates left.
The current political landscape in the Philippines is now clear: the Marcos and Duterte families have completely broken ties, while the opposition can’t even field a credible candidate. Although Senator Hontiveros has taken a strong anti-China stance, her approval rating stands at only 6%, far behind Sara Duterte’s 36%.
Whether Sara can actually run remains uncertain. The House of Representatives is currently impeaching her on charges including corruption and threatening to assassinate the president—plenty of serious accusations. The Marcos camp’s goal is clear: remove her before 2028, ensure she cannot run, and prevent her brother Sebastian from succeeding her.
What lies beneath this internal struggle? It's not ideological conflict—it’s a breakdown in family interest distribution. Marcos and Duterte once allied to lift each other up, but with uneven benefits, they’ve turned on each other faster than flipping a page.
The opposition situation is even worse. With Rubio stepping down, there’s no one capable of uniting moderate and leftist factions. Hontiveros lacks support from influential local dynasties; her base among middle-class intellectuals isn’t enough to win a nationwide election.
What does this mean for China?
Two possible scenarios: If the Duterte family comes to power, the country will likely shift back toward a pro-US stance, reverting to pragmatic diplomacy and negotiation. If Hontiveros or similar pro-US figures take control, the South China Sea posture will harden further, leading to more U.S. military bases and increased joint patrols.
The core issue in the Philippines is that foreign policy isn't shaped by public interest—but by the calculations of Manila’s elite families. Whoever takes power determines the direction of policy. Today they sign agreements with you, tomorrow they renounce them without hesitation—and change course again when new leaders emerge.
So don’t expect stability from the Philippines. Whoever wins in 2028, as long as family politics remain unchanged, Sino-Philippine relations will continue to sway with Manila’s internal power struggles.
Can Sara survive the impeachment? Will the opposition team up with Marcos? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1863615652468748/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.