The Balkans have always been a region that has drawn significant attention on the international political stage. Its unique geographical location, situated at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa, is like a bridge connecting the East and the West. Here, different cultures, religions, and ethnic groups collide and blend, giving rise to a rich and diverse civilization, but also triggering countless conflicts and disputes. For centuries, this region has not only been the frontline of the clash between Islam and Christianity, but also the starting point of World War I, and even the stage where global hegemonies demonstrated their military might in the prelude of the new century.
After the dissolution of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, this region, known as a "powder keg," has never been calm; issues such as the Kosovo crisis and ethnic problems have always lingered. Under Western support, opposing forces have occasionally organized rallies targeting one of the central countries in the region, Serbia. At the same time, the West has exerted pressure on the Serbian government regarding issues such as Kosovo, China, Russia, and EU accession, forcing it to adjust its existing foreign policy.
At the time of the 2025 Thinkers' Forum, Observers Network conducted an in-depth discussion with Vuk Jeremić, the former Foreign Minister of Serbia and President of the 67th UN General Assembly, on the above topics.
[Dialogue/Observers Network, Tang Xiaofu]
Observers Network: Recently, Serbia is facing an urgent issue: the comprehensive sanctions imposed by the United States on the Serbian oil company have come into effect. We know that the major shareholder behind this company is a Russian enterprise. It is reported that the US has asked Serbia to nationalize the Serbian oil company to circumvent the sanctions. At the same time, Serbia has had a series of discussions with Russia on energy issues. What impact will the US sanctions have on Serbia's energy and related industries, and how will Serbia respond?
Vuk Jeremić: The current situation is very severe, and the sanctions have already been launched. The largest energy company in Serbia, which is also the largest company in the country, is suffering from American sanctions, which have seriously affected its ability to finance, bank settlements, procurement, and trade. Therefore, we are facing a very serious situation.
Vuk Jeremić answers questions from Observers Network
The Serbian government is currently discussing with its Russian partners to find a way out of this situation. You know, Serbia is a country under the rule of law, and property rights should be respected and protected within the framework of the law. Therefore, we cannot force right holders to do something they do not want to do within the legal framework, even if the majority shareholder of the Serbian Oil Industry Company is a Russian company, Gazprom Neft. All parties can do is sit down together and seek a practical way to break the deadlock.
It is very regrettable that the resolution to sanction the oil company was proposed by the Biden administration. People had hoped that the relationship between the US and Russia would normalize more quickly in 2025, and that this sanction would be canceled as part of a US-Russia transaction; however, this has not happened so far, and we cannot predict whether it will happen in the future.
We had also hoped that the Trump administration would not implement this decision, but it still happened; the Trump administration decided to use this weapon, so Serbia is now in a very embarrassing situation. Now I no longer expect the sanctions to disappear on their own, so Serbia needs to find a solution.
Observers Network: From the perspective of Chinese readers, we are also very interested in knowing Serbia's real views on the Ukraine war, Russia, and the US, and how the Serbian government will balance relations with the US and Russia. What impact will future cooperation between Serbia and Russia have?
Vuk Jeremić: You are aware that the relationship between Russia and Serbia has lasted for centuries. This relationship has withstood major tests, including world wars. Therefore, I believe that compared to those extreme situations in history, the current Russia-Serbia relationship is not at the level of historical situations.
Since the beginning of the new phase of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022, the Russia-Serbia relationship has gone through a period full of challenges. Since February 2022, I have heard different people say over a hundred times: "Oh, Serbia must do this or that," "Serbia must make a choice between the two."
Now, three years have passed, and I have started to feel tired of this "Serbia must do something" rhetoric. Serbia will make choices based on its national interests, and these national interests are being challenged and harmed by some powerful actors, especially from the West.
At the same time, Serbia is surrounded by Western allies, NATO countries, and EU member states. We must also remember our geopolitical situation. But I am confident that we will find ways to deal with the challenges and achieve our national interests in cooperation with all relevant major actors.
Observers Network: Let's turn to Europe. Recently, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, visited Serbia; while Vučić had planned to attend the Moscow Energy Week, he canceled the visit. On one hand, Vučić has required the government departments to accelerate the "EU accession" at all costs, putting EU accession in the priority position. On the other hand, von der Leyen has demanded that Serbia follow the EU's sanctions against Russia and make it a prerequisite for joining the EU. We all know that Serbia's path to EU accession is extremely difficult, and the EU has put forward many requirements, such as Kosovo, human rights, etc. Do you think the recent situation means that there is a relaxation or hope for EU accession? What kind of choice will Serbia make?
Vuk Jeremić: First and foremost: I do not think Serbia will join the EU. Even if Serbia makes a formal decision to join the EU and gets the support of most citizens, I still do not think the EU will accept Serbia. I know that von der Leyen and others claim that Serbia can and should join the EU, and the EU welcomes its membership; but this is not in line with reality.
Von der Leyen visits Serbia
For various reasons, Serbia is not "welcomed" as an EU member. I will give just one reason: Serbia is an ally of Russia, and Serbia has excellent relations with China, and this relationship is unlikely to change. Any country that joins the EU becomes a member of the European Council, the highest institution of the EU. All decisions of the European Council require consensus and unanimous approval by all members before they can be implemented. In other words, if Serbia joins the EU, then Serbia will have the right to veto EU decisions.
The Europeans have seen Hungary's Prime Minister Orbán sometimes bring tricky challenges to other EU members, and the Europeans are also aware that Serbia will be more resolute and harder to handle on many issues. This is precisely why they will not allow us to formally join the EU. In other words, allowing Serbia to join the EU is a false proposition: even if we wanted to join, we would not have the opportunity to enter the EU.
Therefore, I believe that as a country, we need to continue to cooperate with all our partners, regardless of their proximity; and to remember our geographical environment, trade and energy channels, and strive to seek cooperation on energy issues on a broader scale.
I believe that cutting ties with Russia would be self-harm for Serbia. Ms. von der Leyen's speech in Serbia basically said, "Look, how did we hurt ourselves in Europe; why don't you do the same? Why don't you harm yourself by cutting off your energy links with Russia?" One of the consequences of the European Union's cut-off of energy links with Russia is the numerous problems that Germany is currently facing in economic and industrial production. The sanctions against Russia have clearly hurt themselves.
I am not a decision-maker in Serbia or hold any government position, but if I were to offer advice to the Serbian government, I would suggest they avoid self-harm, especially when the EU offers no return.
Observers Network: In fact, after Trump came to power, the US has also shown some fluctuations on the Ukraine issue, especially recently, Trump seems to be returning to a tough stance against Russia under the persuasion of the EU. From Serbia's perspective, how will you achieve a balance in the Ukraine issue? Especially since Serbia has good relations with Russia, but previously exported weapons to Ukraine, what is your view on this war?
Vuk Jeremić: I think the main effects and consequences of a long-term war will affect Serbia, although not directly, but indirectly through the negative effects this war has on the entire continent of Europe. Of course, we can discuss these secondary impacts, but we should focus more on more important, more significant primary concerns.
For Serbia, the primary concern caused by the long-term conflict in Ukraine is that the EU will continue to push for the militarization of the European continent and may eventually materialize. All European countries have pledged to increase defense spending, and if the war continues, this will become a reality. Europe will invest heavily in defense production and build a "war economy" system within Europe itself.
Russia already has a war economy system: Russia is in a state of war, allocating about 6% of its GDP to defense. According to the plans of European countries, they will increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP, which is very close to Russia's 6%. And in terms of dollars or euros, due to the much larger size of the European economy compared to the Russian economy, their defense spending could even exceed Russia's significantly, which would also constitute a war economy system.
If two war economy systems coexist in the adjacent region, both belonging to Russia and Europe, and maintaining a highly catastrophic political relationship, then war between them is just a matter of time. Moreover, this does not refer only to proxy wars, but also direct confrontation and direct war between Russia and European countries.
If a new war breaks out between Russia and European countries, all European countries, including Serbia, will suffer disastrous impacts in terms of security and economy. Therefore, I strongly hope that the war in Ukraine can end as soon as possible and ultimately reach peace.
I do not rule out the possibility that President Trump will play a role at this stage. After all, a few months ago, it was hard to imagine that Gaza would achieve a ceasefire, that all parties would sit down to sign certain agreements, and that the sound of guns would fall silent. I was at the United Nations during the September General Assembly, and at that time, 99% of the participants were extremely pessimistic about the prospects of a ceasefire in Gaza. However, just a few weeks later, a ceasefire situation appeared, and President Trump played a very important role in it.
Certainly, I do not mean that Ukraine will necessarily replicate this situation, especially not an overnight ceasefire, but we should still hold on to hope. If a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine war cannot be achieved, the risk of war in Europe is likely to increase, and I pray that this never happens.
Observers Network: You mentioned the possibility of direct conflict between Russia and Europe. Now, there are many people talking about the potential of nuclear confrontation. How do you view this discussion? Is there really a risk of nuclear war in the future?
Vuk Jeremić: I do not think a nuclear conflict is imminent, but this does not mean the situation will not change rapidly. A single missile deviating from its course, an aircraft being shot down, or a terrorist action that I myself cannot predict could suddenly change the situation.
Even without physical terrorist actions, a cyber-terrorist action causing devastating consequences in Russia, Ukraine, or somewhere in Europe could trigger a cascading political reaction. Then, suddenly, you might find yourself in a situation that includes a nuclear conflict.
Therefore, although I do not worry about nuclear Armageddon tomorrow, I still strongly hope that the war will end as soon as possible, because who knows what consequences it might cause if it is delayed further.
Observers Network: From the perspective of Serbia's geopolitical environment, the pressures from Europe and the US not only come from the Serbia-Russia relationship, but also from the Serbia-China relationship. As an observer of China, we also understand the need for Serbia to maintain a balanced foreign policy. Recently, Vučić attended the commemorative events for the 80th anniversary of the Russian victory in the Great Patriotic War and the 80th anniversary of the Chinese victory in the War of Resistance against Japan. In your opinion, what impact does maintaining good relations with China and Russia have on alleviating the current international pressure faced by Serbia? What help does Serbia hope to gain from cooperation with China and Russia?
Vuk Jeremić: I am speaking here in my personal capacity. I have indeed served in the government and was the Foreign Minister, but now I only express my personal views. My view is: Russia and China are friends of Serbia; Western countries are partners. We have trade relationships with the West, and we also have some differences with them, and we are surrounded by Western countries, and the West has strong political, economic, and security influence in the region where we are located. Therefore, we need to fully recognize and carefully deal with this reality.
However, China and Russia are not only partners but also friends and supporters. Both China and Russia have given Serbia support within their respective capabilities. For example, in diplomacy, Russia and China, as permanent members of the UN Security Council, have maintained the position of safeguarding Serbia's territorial integrity on the so-called unilateral declaration of independence of Kosovo, providing strong support to Serbia, which is crucial for Serbia.
In terms of bilateral relations, Russia is an important energy partner of Serbia, and China is an important economic and investment partner of Serbia. Therefore, I expect that despite the difficulties, our government will continue to maintain close cooperation with Russia and China. They are not only partners and friends of Serbia, but also extremely important economic actors.
President Vučić and his wife watch the 93rd parade
President Vučić attended the victory day parades of Russia and China, which was criticized by some Western figures. But those Western people failed to understand that it is impossible for Serbia's leaders to not participate in the victory day commemorations of Russia and China. Serbia, like Russia and China, has a deep historical memory of the Second World War. We pay tribute to the countries that made great sacrifices to defeat fascism, and this tribute is an integral part of our collective memory.
Russia lost millions of people in the war, and so did China; Serbia also suffered heavy losses, and in terms of population ratio, it is likely comparable to Russia and China, or even no less than them. Therefore, the victory in World War II is a very significant event for us; when Russia and China commemorate this day in an appropriate manner, Serbia should be present, otherwise where else should we be?
Therefore, the president's choice is correct; I believe that everyone in Serbia will accept the president's choice. I am deeply sorry that some Western people fail to understand the situation in Serbia. This reflects their lack of knowledge and willingness to understand what these issues mean in the history of the Balkan nations.
Observers Network: So what benefits does Serbia hope to gain through cooperation with China and Russia, for example, in the economic field, what specific cooperation projects or investment plans are there?
Vuk Jeremić: I think the answer to the question of cooperation with Russia and China will differ, because Russia and China are quite different in the economic field. In terms of energy, Russia is an extremely important partner, and it is also important in many other aspects, but energy is the primary area of economic cooperation between Russia and Serbia. I believe that Russia is an irreplaceable partner in the energy sector. Even if it is forced to be replaced, the cost will be extremely high, enough to make Serbia's economy unsustainable.
As for China, the situation is different. In my opinion, China is an undisputed global leader in certain technologies, especially in certain important technologies that will shape the future of the global economy, particularly in areas related to sustainable development technology, as well as artificial intelligence and the application of artificial intelligence in industrial production.
I believe that not only Serbia, but the entire Europe must make important decisions on how to cooperate with China in the technological field. Because if we do not cooperate with China in the technological field, it will be difficult to achieve growth in the future. For Serbia, given our consistently friendly relationship, this decision may be easier to make; whereas in Europe, it may take more time, or after more time and political maneuvering, a conclusion may be reached.
But I am convinced that if we cannot engage in very close, fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial cooperation with China, the future of sustainable development in Europe will look bleak.
Observers Network: Another noteworthy situation is that Poland temporarily closed its border due to the joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus, which affected the operation of the China-Europe freight trains. Although this closure was quickly restored, for Serbia and the broader Central and Eastern European countries located at the crossroads of Eurasia, this event may signify a deeper crisis. Especially looking back at recent years, there have been frequent actions targeting critical infrastructure and freight pipelines in Europe, which remind people of 19th-century Europe. In addition, the rise of far-right ideologies globally has emerged, and you mentioned these seemingly familiar historical scenarios repeating. What is your view on these, and can you talk about your views on future trends?
Vuk Jeremić: I think we should not mix these events and concepts together. The macro trends are shaped by the historical process and daily events, such as border closures and temporary tensions. What I mean is that such situations almost occur in large numbers every week; but they are not the main strategic factors driving the development of events.
Poland once closed the border, blocking the transportation of China-Europe freight trains
The reason these things are important is that they may become key nodes that trigger historical turning points, leading to larger-scale and even more adverse developments. Therefore, we need to repair and consolidate the basic situation of the strategy to ensure that such events do not trigger disasters.
However, I still need to return to the war in Ukraine. In my opinion, it is extremely important. The impact of this conflict is multifaceted and closely related to the future of Sino-European relations. I hope it ends as soon as possible, one reason being that as long as the fire of war continues, certain European countries will have an emotion, even an unfounded belief, that Russia is an imminent threat, as if it will invade them tomorrow or the day after.
Personally, I do not think this is a fear based on a realistic assessment of capability. If Russia truly had the capability to invade Europe, it would have ended the war in Ukraine already, so this concern is baseless. But you cannot force people to change their minds, especially when such prejudices are constantly amplified by media coverage.
However, currently, especially in Eastern Europe, there are indeed many people worried that Russia will invade their countries, and the US is their only "protector" in the short term. As long as they believe they need the US, the US can manipulate them to do other things, including how to interact with China and even distance themselves from China. Therefore, as long as this war has not ended, Europe will continue to have the perception that "the US is the lifeboat." This perception will become an obstacle to Sino-European relations in the context of a long-term difficult relationship between China and the US.
I sincerely hope that this war will end as soon as possible, and everything will gradually return to normal. Of course, this does not mean that all global problems will disappear overnight, but it means that we take a step back and move towards a more hopeful future. And the dark script of right-wing ideologies resurfacing in the 20th century leading to global destruction will not be performed in the 21st century.
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