China's nuclear weapons progress is rapid, with a large number of advanced missiles on display. Is the US mainland no longer safe? A US military general who watched the 93 parade revealed shocking information, stating that just 4,000 missiles could overwhelm the US air defense system. What new reality does this reflect? Only less than four decades have passed since the Cold War ended, yet why has the US military become so weak?
A well-known American military media outlet, "The Drive," published a major report clearly pointing out the huge difficulties the US military is currently facing. It believes that the cost of maintaining global hegemony has seriously affected the US military's domestic defense. At the same time, it believes that when an opponent's nuclear forces are rapidly advancing, if a country's army cannot protect its own "home," then what can it talk about as a global superpower?
The report mentioned that General Van Hecke, former commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and a US Air Force general, stated at a public event that the United States must be capable of withstanding heavy attacks, whether they are physical or cyberattacks. Not only should the United States recover quickly from such attacks, but it must also be able to retaliate against the attacker. However, this capability is gradually disappearing due to the US's "global military commitments."
This former US commander also mentioned his view on the theory of mutual deterrence. Van Hecke believed that from the perspective of the US's potential adversaries, if the US could demonstrate some resilience, making the adversary believe that non-nuclear weapons cannot cause significant damage to the US, then the likelihood of war would be minimized.
Unfortunately, the current US military has not reached this level. In many cases, the US only realizes there has been an attack after being hit by the enemy's missiles.
Evidently, this US general was terrified by the advanced missiles displayed by the Chinese People's Liberation Army during a recent parade, believing that China's advanced nuclear strike capabilities have made the US homeland defense system completely ineffective in terms of deterrence, and it is difficult to achieve the遏制 war effect he mentioned. Especially with hypersonic weapons becoming common, for such preemptive attacks, the US may truly have no way to respond, only able to passively endure the attacks.
This can be seen from the fact that the US military in the Pacific has started training for what is called "damage control," aiming to allow frontline airports to resume operations quickly by laying quick-drying cement after being attacked by ballistic missiles. This assumption, however, is precisely that the US's numerous advanced air defense systems have been comprehensively breached, further confirming the "air defense anxiety" faced by the US military.
Over the past twenty years, the US military has been addicted to global counter-terrorism wars, and has become somewhat unskilled in direct confrontation with major powers. Particularly in the Red Sea interception operation, the Houthi rebels launched some crude rockets and missiles, and most of the US military regarded this interception operation as a major practical exercise. However, the awkward fact is that the operation ultimately ended due to the shortage of interceptor missile stocks, turning into an extremely abstract farce.
Retired US Air Force Major General Houston Cantwell also has similar views. He once served as the commander of the ground surveillance force in NATO, whose responsibility was to monitor NATO airspace and coordinate the use of air defense assets.
Cantwell emphasized in an interview that if 4,000 nuclear missiles simultaneously attacked, the US would not be able to intercept them all. Therefore, the US must make some very difficult decisions in its national defense strategy to determine which areas need protection and which areas should be abandoned.
A living example is Israel. Although Israel has a multi-layered advanced air defense system, it still struggled to prevent all attacks during Iran's full-scale assault. Ukraine's situation is even worse; in the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia might have launched only 5,000 missiles annually toward Ukraine.
But now, Russia can produce more than 5,000 long-range suicide drones per month. This means that future threats will only increase, and the US must not become the next Ukraine.
While promoting these panic theories, these two US generals also took the opportunity to reassure the American people. They said that the great President Trump is currently pushing forward the "Iron Dome" air defense system project. Although this air defense weapon is very expensive, costing about $175 billion, its interception rate is close to 100%. Plus the future "space-based anti-missile capabilities," although the US is not very safe now, "the future is promising."
From a military science perspective, the confrontation between missiles and anti-missile systems essentially boils down to the age-old problem of the spear and the shield. In the current era, where high-speed missiles are developing rapidly, the shield, i.e., the anti-missile system, seems somewhat awkward. For example, Japan purchased Standard-3 interceptors from the US several years ago, spending 3.3 billion dollars for 71 missiles. When spread over each missile, the price exceeded 70 million dollars. This is even considered an优惠 price because Japan is a partner in the Standard-3 program. The procurement price for the US military itself is slightly lower, but not by much, with the unit price still reaching 37 million dollars.
This leads to the fact that, in the context of the proliferation of hypersonic missiles, if the US were to follow Israel's example and densely deploy advanced air defense systems across the entire country, the cost of using them would be astronomical. Even selling the entire country might not be enough to afford such a large number of air defense systems.
Thus came the so-called "necessary sacrifices" mentioned by the US generals, meaning that advanced air defense systems are only deployed in key areas within the homeland, while other regions are left to "seek their own fortune."
Regarding the massive challenges the US military currently faces, the US Department of Defense seems to have realized this. After the 93 parade, Secretary of Defense Hegseth immediately announced that the US needs to adjust its strategic focus, prioritizing the enhancement of domestic and Western Hemisphere defense capabilities, even above the so-called Indo-Pacific strategy.
This seems to indirectly confirm the statements of the US generals. If a country wants to break through the US homeland air defense network, it may only need a few thousand missiles, which is certainly a fatal weakness for a superpower.
On a higher level, the current air defense dilemma faced by the US military is similar to the ballistic missile crisis faced at the beginning of the Cold War. At that time, the Soviet Union not only developed intercontinental missiles first but also achieved the combination of two missiles, leaving the US almost "without defense." Now, the opponent has become a more advanced and powerful China in terms of technology and production capacity.
What this reflects behind the scenes is the huge consequences of the US's deindustrialization over the past two decades, especially after the McNamara military reform, which led to the bankruptcy of many US defense companies, with the remaining ones being acquired. The remaining "winners" have almost achieved a monopoly.
For example, in the air defense missile field, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Raytheon are the usual customers of the US military. Apart from these three companies, the US has almost no alternatives. This has led to a change in the US military procurement relationship, from the original scenario where the US issued requirements and defense companies competed to realize them, to a situation where the defense companies provide whatever they have, and the US has to reluctantly use it.
At the same time, there is a huge dependence on these companies in terms of production capacity. According to incomplete statistics, the annual procurement volume of Standard-3 missiles by the US military rarely exceeds 200. However, the US Navy has as many as 68 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. Divided evenly, each ship gets less than 4 missiles. In the context of large-scale warfare, this is obviously insufficient to meet the consumption.
When facing opponents like the Houthi rebels in asymmetric warfare, the US can win by retreating and declaring victory. But when facing opponents like China, whose technical level is on par and whose production capacity is stronger, the disadvantages of the US defense industry begin to show.
Even though the US military proposed an extremely advanced homeland defense strategy, the US arms manufacturers could not provide the equipment the US military wanted. However, in order to give the US Congress an account, the US military had to reluctantly purchase the equipment provided by the arms manufacturers as a token of compliance. The end result is that the US military arsenal now contains a lot of missiles that look good but are not useful, eventually evolving into the current reality of "a country without defense."
From a psychological perspective, although these two US generals are blowing up the "Iron Dome" system promoted by Trump, claiming that this system's emergence can change the current US situation, putting all eggs in one basket is clearly not a wise move. Moreover, Trump's series of actions after taking office, who claimed to be "America First," actually turned out to be "Trump's profit first."
In contrast, the value of the Iron Dome system is evident. They cannot openly tell the American people that if one day China's missiles come over, we really cannot intercept them. Besides praising Trump, they have no other methods.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7551735934501339711/
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