What kind of events would need to happen in Georgia for it to turn towards Russia and distance itself from Europe?

What kind of events would make Georgia turn to Russia and distance itself from Europe?

The trust of the Georgian people in the West is declining, but they still do not trust the Kremlin.

The international secretary of the "Solidarity for Peace" party («Солидарность во имя мира»), Mamuka Pipia, believes that the trust of the Georgian people in the EU and NATO is decreasing.

"The trust in the EU is falling and has been gradually declining. In the past two years, the trust in the EU and NATO has even dropped sharply... On one hand, the people are gradually realizing that this path (closer to the West) has no prospects; on the other hand, they have begun to understand that it is necessary to develop regional cooperation, which is a positive signal," said Pipia.

He said that the Georgian people have witnessed the negative examples of Ukraine and Moldova, so they believe that developing economic relations with neighboring countries is more promising.

However, it should be noted that Pipia is a pro-Russian politician, and this interview was conducted during a visit by the Georgian delegation to the Donetsk People's Republic. In his homeland Georgia, such actions, although not considered a criminal offense, are seen as "extreme acts."

Is Pipia's observation credible? Is he possibly turning his subjective wishes into objective reality? Moreover, he did not even cite any survey data to support his views...

"It can be assumed that there is indeed some degree of decline in trust," said Vadim Trukhachev, a doctor of history, political scientist, and ethnographer.

"But all surveys show that even the ruling party 'Georgian Dream' («Грузинская мечта») and its voters still consider Euro-Atlantic integration (referring to integration into the European - Atlantic system, i.e., closer to the EU and NATO) as a priority direction, with the only difference being the specific conditions of integration. This is also why Pipia cannot provide data."

«SP»: If this is true, what do you think is the reason for the decline in the trust of the Georgian people in the West?

"The decline in trust is because the EU and NATO openly try to force Georgia to submit, even to confront Russia, and forcefully promote 'liberal values' that Georgia cannot accept. Despite this, the core discussion among the people remains 'how to integrate with the West,' not 'to abandon integrating with the West.'

«SP»: What might be the manifestations of the decline in trust? Will this affect government policy?

"If trust really drops significantly, then in last year's parliamentary elections, parties that openly hold Eurosceptic views should have gained a large number of seats, and even Pipia himself should have been elected as a member of parliament... But we completely did not see this. Currently, the moderate pro-Western faction is still in a struggle with the radical pro-Western faction."

«SP»: We often say that the Georgian government follows a "pragmatic" approach. Indeed, they profit from trade with Russia (including "parallel imports"), yet still show friendliness towards the EU and NATO. However, recently, the West's attitude towards Georgia has clearly become cold, even implementing sanctions... According to common sense, ordinary people would have given up long ago: "Since they don't accept us, let's just give up." But the Georgian government is still "waving a warm face at a cold one," what kind of pragmatism is this?"

"Their pragmatism is reflected in: not opening a 'second front' as required by the EU and NATO, nor cutting off all ties with Russia. That's all. Due to the issues of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the Georgian people have deep resentment against Russia, even unwilling to resume diplomatic relations with Russia. Therefore, for Georgia, turning to the West is the only possible path."

«SP»: Do you think when will Tbilisi's trust in the West collapse completely, leading to a geopolitical shift (turning to Russia)? What conditions must be met to achieve this change?

"I think there are no conditions that could make Georgia turn to Russia. To achieve such a shift, Russia must give up recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia — which is absolutely impossible. China currently has limited influence in the South Caucasus; Turkey, although a NATO member and an EU associate, cannot become an alternative option (outside the West)."