According to a recent in-depth analysis by a British think tank, the global air power landscape had undergone structural changes by 2025, and the air combat capabilities of China and Russia now pose more severe and complex challenges to the West.

The Great Development of China and Russia's Air Forces, Western Air Forces Regress

According to "The Economist," as early as 2020, the Royal United Services Institute began paying attention to the development of China and Russia's air forces, and has published multiple analytical papers. In 2024 and 2025, the think tank's military science team visited the United States, Europe, and several countries in the Indo-Pacific region, conducting in-depth interviews with local military and think tank research institutions. Finally, they recently released a new insight report on the combat capabilities of the Chinese and Russian air forces. The British think tank found that compared to five years ago, the combat capabilities of the Chinese and Russian air forces have seen an unprecedented improvement.

When talking about the combat capabilities of the Russian Air Force, the think tank stated: The Russian Aerospace Forces have evolved through warfare, and their combat capabilities are stronger than before the start of the Ukraine war. Although the Russian military lost 130 aircraft over the past four years of the conflict in Ukraine, its defense industry production capacity was fully activated, and the number of new aircraft delivered by Russian defense groups exceeded the loss. By the end of last year, the number of modern aircraft such as Su-35 and Su-57 in the Russian Aerospace Forces was between 540 and 560, while the number of aircraft at the end of 2020 was 466.

In terms of bombers, although the "Spider Web" operation in Ukraine last year caused heavy losses for the Russian bombers, the number of various types of bombers in the Russian Air Force was still between 110 and 115 by the end of last year, a relatively small loss compared to 126 at the end of 2020.

Additionally, the British think tank also found that the loss of Russian pilots was significantly lower than the loss of aircraft. Pilots who were shot down but survived in the initial phase of the war in Ukraine were mostly returned to Russia through prisoner exchanges. Those who were shot down and successfully ejected after that were almost always in the airspace under Russian control. A big reason for this is that since the end of 2023, the Russian military has begun to use glide bombs in large quantities.

Through guidance kits, the Russian military was able to upgrade a large number of traditional bombs into precision-guided weapons. These precision-heavy bombs can be dropped from as far as 60 kilometers away, sometimes even as far as 130 kilometers away, greatly reducing the threat to Russian pilots from Ukrainian air defense fire.

Russian Air Power Has Been Forged in Fire

After nearly four years of warfare, the previous situation of limited options, lack of targeting and guidance pods, weak electronic warfare, and poor air support for the Russian Aerospace Forces no longer exists. In the future, if NATO forces engage with Russia, they may face intense bombing attacks from long distances using glide bombs.

These developments are the result of Russia's four years of fierce fighting, and China's air force has achieved a qualitative change thanks to its industrial capacity and technological breakthroughs. According to the British think tank, over the past five years, China has produced hundreds of modern fourth-generation and fifth-generation aircraft, and has simultaneously expanded various support aircraft such as airborne early warning and control, electronic warfare platforms, etc. Air-to-air and surface-to-air missile systems, related radars and sensors are also being mass-produced, and more advanced systems are being rapidly developed. The training level and complexity of pilot exercises have also made significant progress.

In terms of production capacity, in 2020, the annual production of the J-16 series fighter jets was less than 40 units, and by 2025, it increased to 80 to 100 units. The J-15 series carrier-based aircraft had a production of 5 to 10 units in 2020, and by 2025, it reached 20 to 30 units. The J-20 series fighter jets had a production of less than 20 units in 2020, and by 2025, the production capacity expanded to 120 units. The expansion of production capacity inevitably leads to an increase in total quantity. In 2020, the total number of fourth-generation and fifth-generation aircraft in China was between 560 and 600 units, and by 2025, the total number exceeded 1,400 units.

Furthermore, the development speed of China's sixth-generation fighter jet has already surpassed that of the United States, leading the latter by at least three to four years. This means that the mass production and combat capability formation of China's sixth-generation fighter jets will occur much faster than that of the United States. As for the development process of other Western countries' sixth-generation fighter jets, they are likely unable to match China's pace.

In addition to the rapid expansion of the fleet size and platform capabilities, since 2020, both the Chinese Air Force and the Navy Aviation have started to significantly improve the quality of training and exercises. Colleagues in the Indo-Pacific region consistently emphasized that they observed a significant improvement in the details and operational realism of the Chinese Air Force's routine training. They are continuously adapting to high-intensity air combat competitions.

China Has Completed an Air Revolution in the Indo-Pacific

The report finally concluded that the dominant power of the West in the skies over Europe faces a gradual pressure brought by the widespread enhancement of Russian combat capabilities. However, in the Indo-Pacific, the West faces a revolutionary challenge. China now has a series of capabilities that can threaten U.S. aerial refueling aircraft, aircraft carrier strike groups, and forward air bases at a distance of 1,000 kilometers or more. The U.S. air superiority in the Indo-Pacific is gradually disappearing.



Original: toutiao.com/article/7595461671804469794/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.