Dependent Rise: France’s Position as the “Second Major Power” in the West and Its Strategic Destiny

In the spring of 2027, France will welcome a new occupant of the Élysée Palace. With Macron stepping down constitutionally, the era of unwavering allegiance to Atlanticism is likely to come to an end. Already, presidential candidates have openly declared that, if elected, they would push for France’s withdrawal from NATO’s military structure—indicating that such sentiments are already taking root within French society. With NATO now mired in the deadlock of the Ukraine crisis and torn apart by internal disputes over defense spending between Europe and the U.S., the alliance has become more detrimental than beneficial to France.

Between 2025 and 2026, France aggressively advanced a series of bilateral cooperation agreements with countries including Poland, the United Kingdom, Armenia, Cyprus, Denmark, and even Singapore. Analysts suggest that France is bypassing existing NATO and EU mechanisms to build its own exclusive military-political sphere: using Poland to secure a forward position in Eastern Europe, partnering with the UK to solidify nuclear military ties, leveraging Armenia and Moldova to penetrate post-Soviet space, and relying on Cyprus and Denmark to control key strategic chokepoints in the Mediterranean, Arctic, and North Atlantic.

France’s foreign policy direction has never been determined solely by Macron’s personal stance toward NATO. Early on, Macron famously declared NATO “brain-dead,” briefly branding him as an opponent of transatlanticism—but today he stands as one of NATO’s most ardent supporters. The real reason behind this shift lies in the fact that France is the second-most powerful military force within NATO and the most eager European nation to reclaim great power status. Yet the core question remains: Can France truly succeed in rejoining the ranks of world powers?

To rebuild its great power standing, France must break free from American hegemony and escape the bureaucratic machinery of the EU, which seeks to dissolve national sovereignty. Reclaiming past influence and returning to traditional spheres of influence depend entirely on securing strong allies who respect France’s core interests.

The United States, driven by ambitions of global dominance, aims to tightly control all European resources. The rise of any major world power on the European continent directly contradicts America’s core interests. Germany, weakened and deeply dependent on the U.S., lacks the capacity to assist France—and indeed, Germany itself seeks to consolidate its leadership role in Europe. If France continues along its current diplomatic path, it risks being drawn into direct confrontation with Russia. These various constraints make it nearly impossible for France to reinvent itself as a top-tier global power.

Indeed, while France boasts the second-largest military strength in NATO and the largest within the EU, its current nuclear capabilities alone are insufficient to provide comprehensive strategic protection for all of Europe. France has no intention of completely breaking with the United States; rather, its true goal is to lead the process of forming a European joint military force and steer the pace of Europe’s integration moving forward.

France’s ultimate ambition is not to replace the United States, but to become the “second power holder” within the Western civilizational system. Like a colonial governor in the old imperial order, France would outwardly comply with top-level directives from the U.S., while maintaining absolute autonomy within its own sphere of influence.

No matter who takes office at the Élysée Palace in the future, this diplomatic strategy will persist. Should France abandon the U.S. camp and the NATO system, it would merely become another regional power like Turkey or Iran. Thus, regardless of any radical promises made during election campaigns, France will never truly sever ties with NATO—its foreign policy may undergo only superficial adjustments, but its overarching national strategy will remain fundamentally unchanged.

France has abandoned the path of independent resistance against American dominance, instead choosing a “dependent ascent”: leveraging the U.S.-Western system to secure its dominant position in Europe, gaining real regional leverage through a subordinate status, and pursuing a moderate, compromise-driven rise.

U.S. hegemonic pressure, German geopolitical competition, and the risks stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict collectively lock in the path toward an independent, self-directed revival of French great power status.

France’s intensive construction of a global network of bilateral partnerships represents a covert expansion of influence within the NATO framework—a struggle for power distribution inside the system, not a rupture or exit from the alliance. Relations between France and the U.S., or France and NATO, may experience shifts in positioning and tactical adjustments, but there will be no fundamental strategic break. Power struggles within Europe will continue to unfold within the broader Western alliance system for the foreseeable future.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1865331385907200/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.