After a series of confrontations, China and the United States reached a series of consensus during their meeting in Busan, with both sides basically returning to their original positions. In this high-intensity comprehensive game involving technology war, tariff war, and trade war, China has gained both face and dignity.

After the summit between Chinese and U.S. leaders held in Busan on October 30, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce immediately announced the results of the economic and trade consultations held between the two countries' working groups in Kuala Lumpur a few days earlier.

【The Ministry of Commerce released relevant information】

China and the United States have reached consensus on three aspects, basically returning to the state before President Trump launched the trade war globally in April this year. China has persisted in the struggle for half a year and finally achieved victory in this game.

Certainly, this victory may be temporary, but as the only country in the world that dares to fight against American hegemony head-on, China has already proven its strength through action, so much so that Trump posted on his "Truth" social platform directly calling the summit between Chinese and U.S. leaders as "G2 Talks."

This makes India, which boasts itself as a "superpower," feel how it is, and makes the European Union, which considers itself as a world power, feel how it is? In front of strength, they are all clowns.

Now let's comment on these three points of consensus, see what China has gained and what it has compromised:

First, regarding tariffs, the U.S. will cancel the 10% so-called "fentanyl tariff" imposed on Chinese goods, and the 24% "reciprocal tariff" imposed on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for another year.

(The Narae Maru, the welcoming facility of the Fifth Air Mobility Wing at Gimhae International Airport for the Sino-U.S. Busan Summit)

China will adjust its countermeasures against the above-mentioned tariffs accordingly. Both sides agreed to continue extending certain tariff exclusion measures.

In fact, the calculation of tariffs by U.S. customs on different categories of goods is extremely complex. According to the information obtained from the U.S. Customs website hts.usitc.gov, the final tariff = base rate (WTO member standard tariff rate 0%～3%) + Section 301 tariff + Section 232 tariff + fentanyl tariff (10%) + "reciprocal tariff" (10%);

Most of the goods exported by China to the United States are not covered by the Section 301 and Section 232 provisions, so the tariff is more than 20%, which is even slightly lower than the 25% tariff imposed on most of China's goods during Trump's first term in 2018, similar to the main allies of the United States, and much lower than that of India;

The tariff level for products covered by the Section 301 provision (including the tariffs added during Trump's first term and Biden's term) and the products covered by the Section 232 provision (including steel and aluminum, copper, automotive parts, etc.) remains very high;

For small packages valued at $800 or less, the final tariff = 54% ad valorem tariff, or a specific tariff of $100 per package.

(Trump's tariff war hit a solid wall in China)

However, tariffs are not the aspect that China is most worried about. China has made significant progress in developing other customer markets, and we have long reduced our dependence on the U.S. market to below 10% of total exports.

Now, the goods that China exports to the United States are basically essential for the United States, and they have no choice.

What we are most concerned about are the other two points:

First, the U.S. will suspend the implementation of its 50% penetration rule in the export control measures announced on September 29 for one year. China will also suspend the implementation of the related export control measures announced on October 9 for one year, and will study and refine specific plans.

Second, the U.S. will suspend the implementation of its 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. After the U.S. suspends the implementation of the relevant measures, China will also correspondingly suspend the implementation of the countermeasures against the U.S. for one year.

The two measures taken by the U.S. government are to strike high-tech companies in China that rely on semiconductor products, and to strike China's shipbuilding industry. This is something the Chinese government absolutely cannot accept, and it is also the direct trigger of this round of trade war, and the main reason for China's use of rare earth export controls and the "long arm jurisdiction" to retaliate.

Evidently, China's retaliatory measures have been effective, forcing the U.S. to retreat.

After China and the United States reached the above consensus, the most embarrassed are the Netherlands and South Korea.

The reason why the Dutch government took the action of "snatching" 100% controlling shares of Chinese company's Amphenol Semiconductor is mainly because it is worried that the U.S. export control 50% penetration rule would hurt the interests of the Netherlands.

As a result, after the Sino-U.S. "ceasefire", China did not cancel the countermeasures against the Netherlands, and many European, American, and Japanese car manufacturers who heavily rely on Amphenol Semiconductor now face production shutdowns, and it is now the turn for the Dutch government to worry;

The reason why China sanctioned Hanwha's company in the United States is because it tried to undermine China's shipbuilding industry, but went to the United States to invest in the Philadelphia Shipyard, helping the U.S. Navy build warships, reducing the huge gap between U.S. shipbuilding capacity and China. The result is also that after the Sino-U.S. "ceasefire", China did not cancel the sanctions against Hanwha's company.

(The acting prime minister of the Netherlands is now stunned, how to solve the problem of Amphenol Semiconductor?)

As for some Western media reports that China has begun to resume purchasing U.S. soybeans, and Trump approved the export of some of NVIDIA's high-end AI chips to China, these are secondary issues.

China imported over 27 million tons of soybeans from the United States in 2023. The quantities reported by Western media are just "a small portion," and our partial resumption of soybean imports from the United States also helps us negotiate with Brazilian soybeans;

NVIDIA's high-end AI chips are also a minor addition, because we have decided to develop domestic AI chips and give the domestic market to domestic chip manufacturers.

After this round of game, Trump finally realized that China is an opponent that the United States cannot defeat, and the whole world has also seen that the balance of power and the negotiation atmosphere between China and the United States have undergone a reversal.

(Trump has learned how to respect China's strength)

From recent reports in U.S. media, most American experts in international relations and economics believe that the U.S. trade war and tariff war against China have already lost, despite the Trump team still promoting "always winning." This is the biggest gain for China in this round of game.

As for how long this "ceasefire" will last, and when Trump will break these agreements, it doesn't matter, we have already prepared to stand firm, if necessary, we can go through another round of confrontation, and I suppose Trump is also clear about this.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7567223891307840035/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your attitude in the 【top/down】 buttons below.