Putin Convenes Russia's Top Economists, Expresses Dissatisfaction Over Unmet Economic Forecasts

On April 15, Putin convened a meeting with Russia's leading economists, attended by key officials in the economic sector. With a noticeable downturn in Russia's economy evident by early 2026, Putin called for an emergency session to urge the government to take immediate measures to revive economic indicators.

Russian Economic Data

According to data disclosed during the meeting, Russia's GDP declined by 1.8% year-on-year in January and February 2026—marking the second consecutive month of deterioration, despite previous government forecasts of growth.

-- 2024: Russia's economy grew by 4.9%, largely driven by military spending and artificial stimulus;

-- 2025: Growth slowed significantly to approximately 1%, primarily due to the central bank’s tight monetary policy of high interest rates aimed at curbing inflation, as well as Western sanctions restricting oil export revenues;

-- Early 2026: The economy entered negative growth, with a 1.8% decline in the first two months.

Counting on the Middle East Situation

In March 2026, international oil prices rose amid the escalation of the Middle East crisis. As a result, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its GDP growth forecast for Russia in 2026 from 0.8% to 1.1%.

However, the Russian Ministry of Finance itself projected a 1.3% growth for 2026, while already warning that this forecast might be revised downward by late April due to weak data from the first two months of the year.

Forecasts Not Met

Faced with actual economic figures, Putin summoned top economic officials, including Presidential Assistant for Economic Affairs Maxim Oreshkin, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

Putin stated, “I expect detailed reports today on the current state of the economy, and explanations as to why macroeconomic indicators have still not reached expectations.” He noted that real data had even fallen short of predictions made by officials themselves.

Putin assigned the following tasks to the economic sector: develop “additional measures to restore growth”; create conditions conducive to business development; redirect highly skilled personnel to sectors with higher growth potential, practical demand, and tangible returns—rather than to bloated state institutions.

He also mentioned that the government has already drafted a package of measures to reduce budget dependence on volatile commodity revenues such as oil and natural gas, though specific details were not disclosed.

Russia’s Heavy Reliance on Energy Budgets

Dependence on energy markets has long been a chronic issue in Russia’s economy. High oil prices bring fiscal surplus, while low prices trigger deficits. Despite decades of attempts to break free from this dependency, Russia has yet to succeed.

As analyzed by Reuters, the contraction of the Russian economy at the beginning of the year is not merely a statistical fluctuation—it reflects reduced investment, shrinking employment in civilian sectors, and persistently high lending rates.

While combating inflation, consumer loan and mortgage costs in Russia remain extremely high. Meanwhile, military expenditures continue to absorb vast portions of the budget, leaving fewer resources available for economic development during peacetime.

The Ukrainian armed forces are actively taking actions to undermine Russia’s economy, aiming to weaken its ability to sustain Putin’s war machine. One of their tactics includes attacking oil infrastructure within Russian territory, resulting in massive revenue losses for Moscow.

For example, on April 1, exports of Russian oil and liquefied natural gas via Baltic Sea ports such as Ust-Luga and Primorsk were temporarily halted due to Ukrainian attacks, causing daily losses amounting to tens of millions of dollars for Russia.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1862601603235019/

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