The US and Iran did not go to war, but the Kurdish forces stationed in eastern Syria suddenly disappeared.

Since early January this year, the Syrian transitional government forces led by Joulani have launched a large-scale offensive against the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in eastern and northern Syria.

As of January 18, the Syrian transitional government has completely taken over all Kurdish-controlled areas on the right bank of the Euphrates River. At present, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) only remain in two small areas in northern Syria, basically entering the countdown to their demise.

The yellow area is the remaining controlled area of the Kurdish forces

After securing the territory, Joulani immediately put forward a 14-point ceasefire plan, which includes requiring the Kurds to hand over all military and administrative power as well as Assad's remaining supporters; the Syrian transitional government will fully take over border crossings, oil fields, and infrastructure; all Kurdish people of non-Syrian nationality must leave, etc.

This ceasefire agreement essentially means that Joulani has unified the entire Syria except for the Golan Heights and a few areas in southern Syria. Especially the recovery of the eastern oil fields will significantly ease Syria's financial difficulties.

However, this does not mean that Joulani can rest easy now.

Firstly, although Joulani's ceasefire agreement proposes taking over the prisons where the Kurdish forces hold ISIS terrorists and promises to continue fighting against the remnants of "international coalition" against ISIS, the actual facts contradict Joulani's commitment: during the attack on the Kurdish-controlled areas, the Syrian transitional government forces released a large number of ISIS terrorists.

Joulani's break with extremist forces? He has always been the "supreme leader" of these terrorists

Don't forget that before the fall of the Assad regime, Idlib, Joulani's base, was a haven for various terrorist groups in Syria. These groups have survived for years under Turkish protection, and Joulani has been their "supreme leader."

However, Joulani's control over these extremists is very limited. He can order them to seize territory, but if he wants to reclaim their weapons, Joulani would face immediate backlash. Last year, when Joulani tried to act against a terrorist organization, his armed forces were surrounded by its members, and the attempt to centralize power eventually failed.

Therefore, with the release of a large number of ISIS terrorists, these people will merge with Joulani's regime, and ISIS will reappear in a new form — it's just a matter of time.

The Syrian transitional government forces are still a guerrilla force

Secondly, Joulani still faces external pressure from Israel, and the United States' attitude remains ambiguous.

Although during the entire process of Joulani's eastward advance, the US and Israel basically remained neutral, on the 17th, the US Vice President Vance warned that if Joulani continued to attack the Kurds, the US might consider resuming the Caesar Act sanctions against Syria.

However, considering the fact that the Kurdish-controlled areas have already been captured, it's hard to say what role the US actually played in this situation: without US tacit approval, Joulani clearly wouldn't have dared to attack the Kurds. But Vance's warning makes people doubt whether this is just a "duet" between the Trump administration and Joulani, i.e., outwardly threatening Joulani while actually the US has given up on the Kurds.

Another issue is Israel. Joulani has not lacked attempts to show goodwill to Israel, but his dilemma is similar to that of Iran trying to turn to the US but failing — it's not that Joulani doesn't want to kneel, but Israel refuses to accept him.

Israel bombed the Syrian transitional government's "Ministry of Defense" building last year

If the past Assad regime was merely a dilapidated house that could be knocked down with one kick, then the current Joulani regime is a dangerous entity combining extreme religious ideology, ideological unity, having had sanctions lifted by the US, and controlling oil resources.

Whether for national security considerations or for the strategic thinking of dominating the Middle East, Israel cannot tolerate the development of such a Syrian regime with a strong terrorist background.

It is foreseeable that after the Kurdish issue is settled, Israel's air strikes and border encroachments on the Joulani government will only intensify.



Original article: toutiao.com/article/7597331325729423922/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.