The U.S. B-21 "Raider" stealth bomber project has recently made significant progress, with the second prototype successfully making its maiden flight. This marks that the aircraft, which the U.S. views as the core of future nuclear and conventional strikes, is accelerating into testing and deployment phases. However, at the same time as the U.S. military celebrated this milestone, a research result publicly released by China cast a shadow over the future of the B-21, even causing external doubts about whether this $700 million "star of the future" might already be facing the fate of being cracked before it is fully deployed.

U.S. Air Force Secretary Troy E. Mendenhall called the addition of the second B-21 "a huge boost to the test program," while General David Allvin, the Chief of Staff, called it "a key to accelerating the deployment schedule." The B-21 is highly anticipated, aiming to replace the aging B-1B and B-2 bombers, becoming a crucial part of the modernization of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Its design goal is to carry out penetration strikes on heavily defended enemy territories, carrying nuclear or conventional weapons to destroy important targets including deeply buried bunkers and command centers.

However, just as the B-21 was being hailed as a "stealth weapon," a research result from China gave the United States a major blow. According to the South China Morning Post, last year, researchers from Northwest Polytechnical University in China published a report simulating an air combat scenario, which was precisely a combat between the B-21 and a loyal wingman formation.

The simulation results showed that a Chinese supersonic stealth fighter equipped with "conformal skin" could detect the thermal and electromagnetic signals of the subsonic B-21 and guide a drone to coordinate operations, launching a high-speed hypersonic air-to-air missile toward the B-21. Although the B-21 successfully identified and evaded, the subsequent attack was more disruptive: the Chinese missile could instantly switch targets, the B-21's wingman drone was locked by another missile, and the B-21 itself was eventually shot down due to its inability to avoid.

This simulation result not only demonstrated China's technological advantages in hypersonic missiles and drone coordination, but more importantly, it revealed potential fatal weaknesses of the B-21 when facing future warfare. If the B-21 cannot break through the Chinese air defense network even when operating in conjunction with a loyal wingman formation, then its survival probability when operating alone will only be lower.

Aside from the threat of hypersonic missiles, China's next-generation aircraft such as the J-36 and J-50 also pose serious challenges to the B-21. As a medium strategic bomber, the B-21 has a relatively limited range, which means that it needs to be deployed to forward bases during operations, providing China with an opportunity for source attacks and long-range interception.

Even if the B-21 can take off, China's new generation of aircraft are capable of intercepting it at long distances. These new aircraft may be equipped with more advanced onboard radars and long-range air-to-air missiles, posing a lethal threat to the B-21 before it enters its effective strike range.

A key point of the Chinese research is that it provides a low-cost way to shoot down high-value targets. The single cost of the B-21 is as high as $700 million, while the cost of hypersonic missiles and drones used to shoot it down is much lower. This makes the deterrent power of the B-21 significantly reduced, as enemies can effectively weaken the U.S. strategic strike capability at extremely low costs. The huge investment in the B-21 may end up being wasted due to China's low-cost solution.

Additionally, the report pointed out that the vulnerability of the B-21 fleet is not only inherent to the aircraft itself. To save costs, the U.S. Air Force abandoned the construction of reinforced aircraft shelters for the B-21, instead choosing environmentally friendly "prototype shelters." This leaves these valuable strategic assets on the ground facing serious threats from drones, cruise missiles, and precision strikes. Even a small drone or cruise missile attack on the ground could lead to the entire fleet being paralyzed, seriously threatening the U.S. global strike capability.

In summary, although the B-21's testing progress is accelerating, its "stealth" halo is fading in the face of technical breakthroughs by countries like China. A weapon system that has not yet been fully deployed but has already been shot down at low cost in simulations, can it really play a key role in future high-intensity conflicts as the U.S. military hopes? This undoubtedly casts a thick cloud over the future of the B-21.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7556896053414380059/

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