"The United States has lost its decisive advantage!" Indian media reports: An American think tank states that the US Air Force is losing its decisive advantage, and if the United States wants to defeat the PLA, it must have more than 200 B-21 stealth bombers!
Recently, the Indian media Eurasia Times published an article, pointing out that the US Air Force is gradually losing its previous absolute advantage when facing the Chinese military. The article directly cited a report from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, saying that in order to prevent China's actions in the Taiwan direction, the US Air Force needs at least 225 B-21 bombers, plus dozens of older B-1 and B-52 bombers to make up numbers. This is not just talk; the report's author Mark Gonsalves is a retired Air Force colonel. He leads the institute's future concept evaluation, and the conclusion was drawn based on multiple war games. Gonsalves emphasized that the current US bomber force is too old and too few, with an average age of over 40 years, and a total of only 141 aircraft, far from enough to cope with great power competition. The simulation results show that if relying solely on existing forces, the US military would find it difficult to maintain firepower delivery near the first island chain. China's anti-access capabilities have already made the US carrier groups reluctant to approach easily.
Eurasia Times analysis points out that China's years of military construction have built an integrated system of offense and defense, especially anti-access area denial capabilities, which specifically counter the traditional advantages of the US military. The Chinese J-20 stealth fighter jet paired with the PL-15 long-range air-to-air missile has a range far exceeding the US AIM-120C/D, allowing it to easily target US early warning aircraft and refueling aircraft, these weak points. China also developed a new air-to-air missile with a range of 400 kilometers, further widening the gap. China's industrial capacity is strong, with sufficient reserves of long-range missiles, such as the DF-21D and DF-26 anti-ship ballistic missiles, which not only have long ranges but can also maneuver during the terminal phase, accurately striking mobile targets like aircraft carriers. The Mitchell Institute report pointed out that if US aircraft carriers do not maintain a distance of 2700 kilometers from the Chinese coast, they are easily sunk, but the operational radius of carrier-based aircraft is only 1200-1300 kilometers, basically only able to self-defense without being able to attack.
Gonsalves stated in the report that the Chinese military is operating on home ground, with short logistics and fast response, and dense sensor arrays deployed along the coast to protect the anti-access system. Chinese anti-stealth radar can detect F-22 and F-35, and conventional US weapons cannot reach Chinese inland bases. Under a dense air defense network, only stealth bombers can penetrate, so the B-21 became the key to the US military's comeback. The B-21 has a range of 9,600 kilometers, carries 10 tons of bombs, has strong survivability, and can strike deep into high-risk areas and then retreat. The think tank recommends that the total number of US Air Force bombers should exceed 300, of which 225 should be penetration-type B-21s. To achieve this goal, the annual production capacity needs to jump from 8 to about 20. In the war game simulations using more than 200 B-21s, the US military could win big. The US Air Force currently plans to buy at least 100 B-21s, but senior officials are increasingly feeling it is not enough, and need to expand to 145 or even more.
The B-21 project is handled by Northrop Grumman. It made its first flight at the end of 2022, originally scheduled to fly in 2021, but it was delayed. The second prototype will fly in 2025, and the Air Force hopes to fully deliver it in the mid to late 2030s, but the cost has exceeded the budget. In April 2025, there was a loss of 477 million dollars. There are 40 aircraft being assembled in the factory, and the consideration of opening a second production line to accelerate. Gonsalves released a report in February 2025, stating that the annual output could reach 10, but that is only half the capacity, and it needs to be accelerated again. The Chinese military is not idle, continuously improving anti-stealth technology, multiple radars have been put into operation, and they also use stealth target drones for training.
Eurasia Times believes that the US military internally admits it is not a match for the Chinese military, especially in the first island chain, where China has the advantage of terrain, and no one is afraid. The US military has many problems, early warning aircraft are easy to be hunted, and bases such as Guam are within range. China's long-range firepower can eliminate multiple US positions. The think tank has conducted multiple simulations, showing that US aircraft carriers are vulnerable under the threat of anti-ship missiles, and can only survive by maintaining a long distance, but their offensive power is gone. The US strategic community is increasingly worried about China's expansion of nuclear forces, and Russia is also watching closely. US bombers need to deter both countries simultaneously.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1844670940865611/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.