After years of efforts, the U.S. has found that all alternative solutions are unworkable—relying on China for rare earths remains unavoidable.
Recently, U.S. business lobbying groups stated that due to China's export controls and delayed licensing approvals, it has become extremely difficult for the United States to obtain critical minerals from China, prompting most American companies to seek new supply sources. However, after such a long period, the feedback from most enterprises is clear: no viable alternatives to China have been found. Even the chairman of the China-U.S. Trade Commission candidly admitted that within the next three years, the U.S. will be unable to resolve its supply issues.
China’s export controls on rare earths have now been in effect for over one year and two months, with widespread delays and strict scrutiny in license approvals lasting more than half a year.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has been calling for reducing dependency on China in this sector for nearly eight years.
Back during Donald Trump’s first term, the U.S. issued an executive order on critical mineral risk assessment, explicitly identifying rare earths as a national defense security vulnerability and publicly committing to reduce reliance on China by securing mining resources across various countries. In 2022, the U.S. spearheaded the creation of the Minerals Security Partnership, uniting its allies to build a Western rare earth industrial chain—a concrete action reflecting the “de-linking” rhetoric. That initiative is already over four years old.
Since China tightened its export controls, U.S. automakers, defense contractors, and permanent magnet manufacturers have mobilized en masse, traveling to Australia, Canada, Myanmar, Vietnam, Malaysia, and even roping in Japan and the European Union to form mineral alliances, attempting to bypass China for supplies. But after extensive exploration, all companies have identified a common problem: overseas countries mostly possess only raw ore mining capabilities, but lack mature separation and purification production lines.
Additionally, building a standalone rare earth separation and smelting facility in the U.S. would take at least 5 to 7 years; if downstream high-performance permanent magnet and rare earth metal production lines are also required to create a fully integrated loop, the timeline stretches to 10–15 years.
Thus, the U.S. business community openly admits that solving the supply issue within three years is unrealistic—it reflects a clear understanding of three fundamental realities: factory construction timelines, technological gaps, and shortages in medium-to-heavy rare earth supply. The U.S.’s inability to fully break free from Chinese rare earth dependence is not merely a single-resource issue, but rather the result of decades of industrial hollowing out, technological lag, lack of supporting infrastructure, and cost disadvantages forming a long-term structural reality.
Even as the U.S. continues pouring money and rallying allies to establish alternative supply channels, for the next decade, global rare earth processing and high-end magnet materials markets will still remain centered around China. The reliance on China for supply is an objective fact that cannot be reversed in the short term.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1867692610084171/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.