On October 21, the Chinese private commercial aerospace company LandSpace released a major announcement that the first stage of its reusable Zhuque-3 rocket has completed fueling and ignition testing. It is preparing to conduct its first flight and recovery in November. If this model succeeds, China will have taken a strategic step forward in catching up with SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket.

The first-stage engine of Zhuque-3

Several days before this news was released, Musk retweeted a message on Twitter. Someone stated that if SpaceX is excluded, China's annual rocket launch count is far ahead of the United States, and Musk only replied with "Yes."

This "Yes" is not only a compliment to Musk himself but also reflects the helplessness of American space technology. After more than 20 years of efforts by NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense, only SpaceX emerged as a significant launch service provider. Other companies either went bankrupt or moved at a slow pace.

Jeff Bezos, the former world's richest man, invested heavily in Blue Origin, which has conducted several rocket launches, but it is still far from being able to take on major responsibilities. The old-established United Launch Alliance has low production capacity. Moreover, these two companies have not broken through the technology of reusability. The U.S. space launch industry is basically dominated by Musk alone.

This scenario is almost identical to the electric vehicle market. In the entire U.S., only Tesla, led by Musk, is competitive. Other traditional American car companies' electric vehicles are confined to the corners of the market and cannot make much impact. However, when people look at the global market, they can see a large group of Chinese electric vehicle companies competing fiercely, making Tesla lose its advantages. Volkswagen in Germany also achieved an upset victory over Tesla in Europe with the support of Chinese technology.

Therefore, in the field of reusable rockets, although Chinese enterprises started slightly later, once they achieve real breakthroughs, they could potentially surpass Musk, becoming the most concerning competitor group for him, just like in the electric vehicle industry.

StarNet Xiongan Headquarters

The next question is, what are so many rockets used for? Musk has given us an answer. The existing space launch market cannot possibly absorb the massive capabilities of Falcon 9. Therefore, Musk launched Starlink, a low-orbit internet constellation, which occupies most of Falcon 9's launch schedule. In China, similar systems to Starlink are not very useful.

However, looking at the global scale, most countries do not have such developed fiber-optic networks and broadband services as we do, so satellite-based internet services still have a big market. Additionally, Chinese companies, institutions, and citizens going global need continuous broadband internet services. If we allow Musk to monopolize this market, it would be very detrimental to China. Therefore, we also need our own Starlink system. Currently, there are two constellations actively being built in China, namely StarNet and Qianfan Constellation.

Falcon 9 reduces costs through reusability

The operators of these two constellations have placed large orders with manufacturers. StarNet alone has an annual production capacity of more than 200 satellites in Tianjin alone, and this can be further increased. The Qianfan Constellation has a daily production capacity of one satellite, an annual capacity of more than 300 satellites, and is expected to reach an annual capacity of 600 satellites by 2026. Although the combined capacity of these two constellations has not yet reached the level of Starlink,

the planned scale of the two constellations combined is less than half of Starlink's. The current capacity is sufficient. However, because we started later, to catch up with Starlink's deployment progress, a large number of rockets are needed for launches. In this case, if reusable rockets achieve breakthroughs, even a situation of hundreds of boats racing, it would be very beneficial for the deployment of the two constellations.

The significance of reusable rockets lies in two aspects. First, it reduces costs. Through reusability, Falcon 9 has reduced the cost of a single launch from $67 million to $28 million. According to the statement of SpaceX's executives, if other satellites are carried along with the Starlink satellites during the launch, the fees can cover the rocket flight costs, meaning the Starlink satellites are effectively launched for free.

The lower the launch cost, the lower the constellation construction cost. This is one of the important reasons why Starlink can quickly expand. The Chinese manufacturing industry is highly skilled in reducing costs through mass production. Once reusable technology is broken through, we can see a sharp drop in the price of China's launch services, which not only benefits the rapid deployment of constellations but also provides discounts for both domestic and international customers.

Secondly, it enables scheduled operations, which is the watershed moment that the rocket industry strives for. Previously, rockets had to be scheduled months or even years in advance, with multiple matching tests between satellites and rockets. Scheduled operations align with civil aviation, where rockets launch regularly, and users buy tickets in advance, taking off at the scheduled time.

Musk's Falcon 9 has basically achieved scheduled operations, launching twice a week. This provides stable and predictable launch plans for satellite operators. China's space program originally envisioned achieving scheduled operations by 2045. If multiple commercial rocket companies break through reusable technology in the near future, this goal can be achieved 15 years earlier.

China's launch frequency exceeds the United States when excluding Falcon 9

At that time, not only can China's constellations rival Starlink, but other countries can also find shelf-style space services here in China. This will become a new peak of Chinese manufacturing.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563882326532211254/

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