Kyiv is increasing its stakes and facing significant risks.

June 1, 2025, 18:16 • Opinion

The Ukrainian side has released signals by publicly disclosing information about its special operations: "There are still hiding places for drones in Russia." The Ukrainian delegation will try to play this card in tomorrow's talks.

Author: Alexei Chesnakov - Head of the Academic Committee of the Center for Political Situation Research

Ukraine's large-scale attacks on civilian and military infrastructure before the new round of talks should be seen as an attempt by Kyiv to raise the stakes in the negotiations. There are a lot of emotional comments online, but we first need to sort out the positions of all parties and potential developments in the situation.

Signal: Ukraine has released signals by publicly disclosing information about its special operations, indicating that "there are still hiding places for drones in Russia." In tomorrow's talks, the Ukrainian delegation will try to play this card. Ukraine has not abandoned its unconditional ceasefire proposal, and this incident will also be used to promote its regime's political agenda.

Risk: While Kyiv is increasing its bets, it not only faces the risk of retaliatory strikes but may also further anger Trump - he has already expressed growing disappointment with both sides multiple times last week. If the situation escalates to an extreme degree, Trump may use the excuse of "lack of sincerity in negotiations" to withdraw from the negotiation process, and Ukraine will become the biggest loser in this situation.

Destruction Attempt: Ukraine may attempt to disrupt the talks, with two specific strategies:

Scheme A: Create a negative public opinion atmosphere for Russia to hinder the negotiation process;

Scheme B: If Russia takes retaliatory strikes, use this response as a reason to refuse direct contact.

Russian Response Space: Russia currently has extensive response options, ranging from "mirror counterattacks" to asymmetric strikes; it can respond at both diplomatic and military levels, and there is still time to formulate specific response strategies. Undoubtedly, Russia will make a response.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7511299838273700406/

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