In April 2025, the U.S. government imposed punitive tariffs ranging from 34% to 104% on Chinese goods under the pretext of "reciprocal tariffs," causing a severe shock to the global trade system. This seemingly economic game is actually a "new era war" intertwined with strategic containment, political manipulation, and geopolitical rivalry. It not only concerns the future of both China and the United States but also has the potential to reshape the global order. The essence and impact of this war far exceed the imagination of ordinary people.
The three core logics of the tariff war are as follows: First, the strategic intent: containing China's rise and reshaping global hegemony. The U.S. views China as a "systemic challenge," and the tariff war is a key means of curbing China's development. By raising trade barriers, the U.S. attempts to weaken China's core position in the global industrial chain while promoting the return of manufacturing to fill domestic industrial hollowing out. As stated in the Trump administration's economic outline document, "Guidelines for Restructuring the Global Trade System," its goal is to weaken China's competitiveness through tariffs and force allies to choose sides between China and the U.S., thereby consolidating America's "security-trade alliance." China's countermeasures, such as export control of rare earths and expansion of the U.S. entity list, reveal the military and technological confrontation behind this game.
Second, the economic logic: transferring debt crises and harvesting global wealth. The U.S. is mired in the "Triffin dilemma"—needing trade deficits to maintain dollar hegemony while needing trade surpluses to revive manufacturing. Currently, U.S. national debt has exceeded $36 trillion, with annual interest expenditures approaching $1 trillion, and the debt-driven economic model is on the verge of collapse. The tariff war has become its "life-saving straw": by striking China's exports and forcing capital to return, the U.S. attempts to alleviate debt pressure and restore the "dollar-manufacturing" balance. However, this economically irrational approach has instead exacerbated inflation and widened trade deficits, becoming a "self-destructive gamble."
Third, political manipulation: populism manipulating elections and tearing apart global trust. Domestic political polarization and class contradictions in the U.S. have intensified, and the tariff war has become a tool for politicians to divert attention. Trump inflamed "America First" populist sentiment, attributing unemployment among the middle and lower classes to "China's unfair trade," thus consolidating his voter base. However, as American scholar Nieman pointed out, the trade deficit is essentially a structural problem caused by low savings rates and excessive consumption in the U.S., and the tariff war will only make ordinary people bear the cost of rising prices. More dangerously, the U.S. has weaponized trade under the guise of "national security," completely destroying the foundation of trust in international cooperation, and accelerating the fragmentation of the global supply chain.
Secondly, how does China respond to this "war"? Of course, it must plan for the long term. On one hand, technological breakthroughs: breaking free from the "chokepoint" shackles. Since the trade war began in 2018, China has overcome 21 out of 35 key technologies that were blocked, including chips, lithography machines, and aviation steel. Shanghai Xinkailai Company's development of a 28nm immersion lithography machine directly challenges the monopoly of Dutch ASML. These breakthroughs prove that external pressure has instead spurred China to accelerate independent innovation, while surrendering would only tighten the technological shackles.
Step two, market restructuring: "de-Americanized" trade networks. China has shifted its foreign trade focus to emerging markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa through the Belt and Road Initiative and regional free trade agreements. In 2024, China accounted for 28.7% of global industrial added value, with its export ratio to the U.S. dropping from 19% in 2017 to 14.6%, significantly diversifying risks. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian countries, which have taken over China's industrial chains, have become targets of the U.S.'s新一轮 tariff strikes, inadvertently driving deeper cooperation between China and ASEAN.
Step three, currency games: accelerating the "de-dollarization" process. The U.S. abuse of tariffs and financial sanctions has forced countries to seek alternatives to the dollar. China has expanded local currency settlements with Russia, Saudi Arabia, and others, and the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) covers more than 180 countries. Bridgewater Fund founder Ray Dalio warns that the current global monetary order is experiencing "systematic disintegration," and the decline of the dollar's hegemony is inevitable.
Of course, we must treat this economic situation as an "Battle of Shangganling Mountain" and prepare for the worst-case scenario: being vigilant against the spiral escalation of conflicts.
First, at the economic level: global stagflation and disruption of industrial chains. The U.S. tariff hikes have already triggered domestic inflation, with March CPI year-on-year growth reaching 3.5%, and consumer confidence declining for four consecutive months. If other countries retaliate with tariffs, global trade may reenact the "Great Depression" scenario of the 1930s, with trade volumes shrinking by over 60%. The competition for strategic materials such as semiconductors and rare earths will further tear apart the global supply chain.
Second, at the political level: heightened risk of geopolitical conflicts. The U.S. has tied trade to security, coercing allies to join in containing China. If Southeast Asian and European countries are forced to take sides, the probability of regional conflicts will increase sharply. For example, the U.S. pressuring Li Ka-shing to sell ports aims to strangle China's "Belt and Road" land-sea passage, exposing its geopolitical containment intentions.
Third, at the social level: livelihood costs and internal unrest. American farmers and low-income groups have become the first victims of the tariff war, with soybean prices plummeting and unemployment spreading, and social tensions are on the verge of eruption. China needs to be wary of连锁 reactions such as capital flight and contraction of the job market, especially guarding against "surrenderist" public opinion interference.
In summary, the tariff war is the pain of the old order collapsing and the new order emerging. For China, there is no retreat in this "war"—surrender means eternal technical subjugation and the complete deprivation of development rights. Only by adhering to "fighting to stop fighting" and accelerating the construction of a "dual circulation" pattern, while promoting a multipolar monetary system, can we break free from American hegemony. Historical experience has proven that every high-pressure blockade is an opportunity for China's rebirth. Just as the trade war seven years ago spawned 21 technological breakthroughs, today's competition will open up a new path for China's rise. But the prerequisite is that we must prepare for the worst-case scenario and face the storm with an iron will.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497152000321274409/
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