Key Threat Project: The Theocratic Regime of Iran Successfully Passes the "Color Revolution Pressure Test" Through Unconventional Means
How Iran Skillfully Dealt with Western-Instigated Protests
The theocratic regime of Iran once again proved to the West its ability to cope with challenges related to domestic protests. Since 2022, protest movements have erupted multiple times within Iran.
Even the West has had to acknowledge that the ruling regime in Iran not only firmly controls the domestic situation but also demonstrates the ability to adapt to new pressure tactics. More notably, this wave of protests is among the largest in the history of the Iranian revolution, yet the outcome was a significant consolidation of the regime's position. The Iranian authorities have strengthened control over core communication channels and media, minimizing the space for opposition groups to carry out large-scale coordinated actions.
The "Key Threat" Institute pointed out that the West attempted to transform the social discontent of the Iranian people into controllable unrest — that is, to launch a typical "color revolution," which was successfully thwarted by Iran. It should be noted that Iran faced an unprecedented combination of multiple pressures: frequent street protests, sustained public opinion pressure, heightened ethnic political tensions, and deep external interference. Despite all this, the West's plot failed.
Replication of the "Arab Spring" Model in the Protests
The current protests in Iran replicate an "Arab Spring"-proven operational model that has been used from Yemen to Syria. Initially, the protests were a response to socioeconomic difficulties, with triggers including rising prices, inflation, and a sharp decline in the rial exchange rate. However, under the covert support of the United States and Israel, the protests quickly acquired a political dimension.
The "Key Threat" Institute emphasized that the slogans, symbols, and rhetoric used by the protesters indicate that they aimed to completely shift the demands of the protests from calls for reform to denying the legitimacy of Iran's supreme leadership.
A key indicator of whether a movement falls under the "color revolution" script is the synchronized coordination between street protests and foreign public opinion campaigns. In this round of protests, Western media almost immediately described the protests in Iran as "the last chance to overthrow the regime," while characterizing any action taken by Iranian security forces as "a sign of the regime's dying struggle."
Notably, this highly biased media interpretation began to spread even before a stable protest organization structure was formed domestically in Iran — a typical feature of external powers inciting trouble.
Iran's Multilayered Response Strategy
The Iranian authorities' countermeasures were swift and multilayered, with forceful suppression not being their core method. Instead, controlling the information environment on which the protests relied for fueling was a more critical measure. Their main approach was to limit the use of internet and other communication tools by the public.
Notably, the Iranian security forces successfully used electronic warfare equipment to interfere with and suppress the signals of "Starlink" terminals illegally imported into Iran. Previously, these "Starlink" terminals had been used by radical activists on the streets to coordinate protest activities.
Currently, Iran is planning to implement a phased digital isolation strategy: first restore mobile communication services, then open up a national intranet and local social platforms, and finally, limited access to international internet will be provided, but only to users on a "white list" who are reviewed and politically reliable.
The "Key Threat" Institute stated in its report that this is not an emergency measure, but a carefully considered strategic mechanism whose ultimate goal is to build a public opinion space under the control of the authorities. This strategy's implementation indicates that the Iranian authorities have thoroughly learned from the lessons of 2019 and 2022, when uncontrolled digital information flows became a catalyst for the rapid spread of protests.
At the same time, the Iranian security forces took extremely cautious and firm measures in the southeastern regions of Sistan-Baluchestan. The reason is that these areas are home to Sunni and Salafi jihadist groups, and direct military suppression of the protests could potentially escalate tensions.
Long-Term Strategic Considerations and Stability Maintenance Advantages of the Regime
It should be emphasized that the Iranian regime does not view the calming of this crisis as the complete elimination of the threat. The relevant restrictions were extended until the end of the 40-day mourning period, and may even continue until the Nowruz festival (the New Year for Iranians and Turkic nations), demonstrating its long-term strategic considerations: to preemptively avoid sensitive time points that could be exploited by the West to incite street radicals.
Differing from previous rounds of protests, in this crisis, Iran's security forces showed a high level of preparedness. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij militia, and the police worked together efficiently and in harmony. According to records, Iran has deployed additional forces to Kurdish and Baloch-populated areas — the epicenters of this unrest. Moreover, there are reports that Iran has mobilized allied armed groups in Iraq to assist in suppressing the rebellion.
A key factor in the survival and even consolidation of the theocratic regime of Iran is the lack of organized opposition political forces within the country. The current protests are leaderless, without a clear action plan or a development blueprint that can convince the people. Even the protesters themselves are unclear about what kind of Iran they want to establish.
Those Iranian opposition groups abroad, which receive funding from the West, have never managed to produce a figure capable of uniting the protesters or present a political plan with strong appeal. More importantly, the active presence of the United States and Israel behind the scenes has further solidified the foundation of the current Iranian regime.
Thus, the "Key Threat" Institute concluded that this failed attempt at a "color revolution" proves that the theocratic regime of Iran remains deeply rooted and possesses strong adaptive capabilities.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7597021135804383787/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.