As the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, the energy-poor Taiwan region faces the imminent crisis of oil, gas, and power shortages. However, the authorities in Taiwan are still being stubborn. The mainland has already opened a "path to heaven," but Lai Ching-te is still courting Japan, which is simply not tactful.

Hormuz Strait Oil Tanker

Recently, as the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran escalated, the Hormuz Strait has essentially been "completely blocked," and the world is facing an "energy crisis." The Taiwan region, which has always relied on imported energy, is now in dire straits and can't last much longer. Taiwanese media reported that Taiwan is facing the risk of "oil shortage, gas shortage, and power outage."

This is not alarmist. Taiwan is an isolated island with scarce resources, and almost all fossil fuels are imported, most of which pass through the Hormuz Strait. Worse still, the energy reserves in the Taiwan region can only support 11 days. Once the sea transport route is cut off, these 11 days of inventory will be the countdown for the entire island's power supply.

Besides that, the "economic pillar" of Taiwan, TSMC, may also face shutdown due to raw material shortages or power outages. In this era of AI breakthroughs and surging demand for wafer manufacturing, if TSMC "shuts down," it will cause a "great earthquake" in the global technology supply chain. Perhaps because of this card, the authorities in Taiwan remain calm and confident that there will be "external support."

TSMC

However, despite the economic department of the Taiwan authorities claiming that the shipping schedule for March and April has been arranged, such "symptomatic treatment" is powerless against long-term supply chain disruptions caused by the conflict. Moreover, whether it is Japan, South Korea, or the United States, they are now all preoccupied with energy issues and desperately seeking help, leaving no time to care about Lai Ching-te.

Lai Ching-te has recently made increasingly frequent pro-Japanese and pro-American statements, clearly treating them as a lifeline. But the authorities in Taiwan should not forget that as an isolated economy, Taiwan has almost no room for diplomatic maneuvering and no qualification to sit at the negotiation table. The bargaining power for energy imports and transportation safety is essentially supported by the backing of major powers.

Lai Ching-te

The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities have shown an attitude of "everything under control," with their economic department citing "three contingency plans" to try to reassure the public. However, the market's reaction is honest, and the corporate response is even more sensitive. When natural gas inventories run low, factories are forced to implement power cuts, and prices soar, the authorities' sweet words cannot solve the problem.

When anxiety spreads throughout the island, the mainland once again offers the "path to heaven." Chen Bin, a spokesperson for the State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office, stated that as long as cross-strait peace and reunification are achieved, the mainland is willing to provide more solid energy security for the people of Taiwan, allowing them to live without fear and enjoy a better life. This is not empty talk, but a promise backed by confidence.

Last year, the mainland's social electricity consumption exceeded 10 trillion kilowatt-hours. During peak periods, there were no power cuts or significant price hikes. In addition to traditional energy sources such as coal, oil, and gas, the mainland also has the largest clean power supply system in the world, with ample energy reserves. After peaceful reunification, the two sides will achieve interconnectivity and full connectivity.

The mainland has the world's largest power system

This means that a submarine power cable or a natural gas pipeline could directly deliver the mainland's abundant electricity and stable oil and gas resources to Taiwan. At that time, the people of Taiwan would no longer worry about the so-called "11-day inventory," no longer need to be anxious about the actions of the Middle East, nor suffer from power outages during the summer. Taiwanese companies would enjoy cheaper, cleaner, and more stable energy supplies than ever before.

The DPP authorities, for political interests, ignore this "path to heaven" and instead go against the trend, refusing to acknowledge the "1992 Consensus," leading to the inability to conduct normal cooperation on energy infrastructure between the two sides. When the crisis comes, what else can they do except stubbornly refuse to admit the truth? The mainland's statement is based on the genuine concern for compatriots and the inevitable logic of national reunification. Lai Ching-te, don't be ungrateful.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7618801949932110351/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.