The U.S. military advantage in the Iran conflict no longer exists

It has become increasingly evident over the past few days: the initial perception among many that the United States held a decisive military edge in the early stages of the conflict is no longer certain. Multiple unfavorable developments are now emerging, indicating that the U.S. cannot unilaterally handle Iran.

First, as we previously pointed out, the U.S.'s non-nuclear/conventional warfare capabilities in coordination with Israel have been largely exhausted. Meanwhile, Iran remains operationally active—not just launching sporadic retaliatory strikes, but clearly targeting U.S. military concentrations in the region, while fully preserving its command structure.

Second, in addition to attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan, Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, the USS Ford has effectively lost combat capability.

Specific details regarding damage and system failures aside, the fact remains that it has been withdrawn from the operational theater.

The USS Lincoln has also pulled back to waters near Oman, well beyond the range of Iranian missiles—evidence that the fighting power of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has been severely underestimated. With U.S. radar systems destroyed and F-16 and F/A-18 aircraft suffering damage, the U.S. aerial dominance has noticeably weakened.

Today, the U.S. is increasingly relying less on tactical fighter jets to strike Iran and instead using B-52 bombers to launch JASSM missiles from over 300 kilometers away.

Third, due to strategic and tactical miscalculations, a situation has emerged where the main striking forces the U.S. spent months assembling in the region failed to deter Tehran—and instead have been viewed by Iran as legitimate targets.

Although Iran currently still lacks the ability to reach the remaining portions of this “threat”—such as the KC-135 and KC-46A tanker groups near Tel Aviv, and the F-22 fighters at Al-Uwda Air Base, which remain intact—Iran is already attempting to strike them. The attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia indicates that Iran will eventually be capable of hitting all key targets.

In sum, the overall situation leads to the conclusion that Iran continues to receive real-time intelligence, combined with asymmetric target selection, enabling the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to significantly escalate the cost of America’s "epic fury" campaign on a daily basis.

Given that the U.S. casualty rate in operations against Iran has already far exceeded that of the "Desert Storm" campaign, two outcomes are likely to unfold soon:

- Either the U.S. shifts toward negotiations and adjusts its position;

- Or it dramatically escalates its strikes and launches full-scale ground operations along coastal areas at minimum, in order to secure passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

While U.S. authorities continue claiming they have defeated Iran, their actions on the ground fall short. Maintaining the status quo is now nearly impossible for the United States.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1860922811763724/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author