【Military Second Dimension】 Author: ——Global Mobility ★ Intelligent Victory ——

The past few days have seen the Indian military circle's heat fully taken over by one thing —— the procurement contract for 114 Rafale fighter jets has been officially approved. 3.25 trillion rupees, approximately 36 billion US dollars, India's largest single military purchase in history, no one else.

As soon as the news came out, the Indian military fan circle visibly became excited, "the strongest air force in Asia" old joke was brought up again and again.

▲Even the Germans were amused

But interestingly, before the celebration could last long, some Indian military media themselves first poured cold water. The Indian defense research website IDRW published an analytical article, after calculating the accounts, it came to a conclusion that is embarrassing: even if all 114 Rafales are in place, plus the existing 36 (including those shot down last year), forming a fleet of 150 Rafale aircraft, it could never catch up with the speed of expansion of the Chinese Air Force.

The numbers on paper are clear. How long is the delivery cycle for 114 Rafales? Starting from 2029, it is expected to be fully in place by 2031. In other words, the Indian Air Force will have to wait at least five or six years before holding these planes in their hands. What about China? The annual production of J-20 is increasing year by year, and according to analysis by overseas think tanks, the capacity in 2025 is around 120 units.

What does this mean? The scale of the new aircraft fleet that India has been trying to accumulate for seven or eight years can be produced by the Chinese Air Force in less than a year with just one model. Not to mention that J-16, J-35, and J-10C are also in production, and the number of new fighters added each year is a very terrifying figure.

The gap between China and India is not only big, but it is also widening at an observable rate.

▲The Royal United Services Institute in the UK's projection of the quantity and production of several models

Some Indian media tried to make up for it by saying: although there is a disadvantage in quantity, the Rafale has a quality advantage. This statement might have worked in 2024 or earlier, but now it can only make people laugh.

What happened during the May India-Pakistan conflict? The Pakistan Air Force's J-10CE gained a decisive advantage over the Rafale, shooting down four of them.

At first, people thought it was due to the Pakistan system's advantage and the Indian pilot's poor skills. Later, when more information was made public, it was confirmed that there was no reliance on early warning aircraft guidance, nor any intense dogfighting. It was simply that the J-10C discovered the Rafale from a distance, fired a missile, while the Rafale's radar and electronic warfare systems were outdated, neither detected the J-10C nor the missile, and was completely baffled before being shot down.

▲The J-10CE has a significant advantage in radar and avionics

In short, the Rafale being beaten by the Chinese-made fourth-generation semi-fighter J-10CE has become a fact, reflecting a huge technological gap between two fourth-generation semi-fighters. Then comes the question: if the Rafale cannot gain an advantage against the J-10CE, where would its "quality advantage" come from when facing stronger models like the J-16, J-35, and J-20?

The J-20 is an authentic heavy stealth fighter, with a fuselage almost twice the size of the Rafale, internal bomb bays, radar cross-section, and situational awareness capabilities are on an entirely different dimension. By the end of 2025, the number of J-20s in service has already exceeded 400, which is just the scale of one model of fifth-generation fighter. The J-35 is also rapidly advancing in mass production, while the Indian Air Force hasn't even touched the shadow of a fifth-generation fighter.

The most tragic part is that by around 2031, when the entire batch of Rafales is delivered, the Chinese Air Force is likely to have already begun deploying sixth-generation fighters. In December 2024, Cheng Fei and Sheng Fei successively test flew two different designs of sixth-generation fighters.

According to the current R&D progress, the outside world generally predicts that the J-36 may form initial combat capability as early as around 2030. In other words, when the Indian Air Force finally gets all the new Rafales, they will face an opponent equipped with sixth-generation fighters.

▲The deployment of sixth-generation fighters is clearly within sight

This gap has been widened by two generations.

India is not without effort. The AMCA project has been announced for many years, and the Light Combat Aircraft MK2 has gone through many rounds of trials, but so far, it is still only heard of the sound of stairs but no sign of people coming down. The small foundation of India's aviation industry cannot support the ambition of independently developing a fifth-generation fighter. Therefore, the Indian Air Force can only repeatedly buy weapons on the international arms market —— in the past, it was Su-30MKI, then Mirage 2000, then Rafale, and now another large order of Rafale. Each time, it claims to "change the game," but each time, it finds that the opponent has already changed the track.

Will 114 Rafales solve the problem of the Indian Air Force? Objectively speaking, it can alleviate some urgent needs. The Indian Air Force's current fighter squadrons are seriously understaffed, theoretically requiring 42 squadrons to cope with "two-front warfare," but in reality, there are less than 30. The MiG-21 has been completely retired, and the MiG-29 and Mirage 2000 are too old, and without buying new planes, the gaps will continue to widen. The Rafale is a mature and reliable fourth-generation semi-fighter, which is usable, can be used, and arrives quickly, which is its biggest value.

But the problem is, what India wants is not "usable," but "winning."

The article by IDRW is actually quite straightforward: the Rafale bought back is not for winning air combat, but for "buying time" —— buying the time until AMCA is deployed, and the time until the Indian aviation industry becomes truly mature. Whether this time can be bought or not, who knows. After all, the pace of China's aviation industry will not wait for anyone.

▲AMCA is still at the model and PPT stage

If we look back at this matter, we will find a very interesting phenomenon: Indian military media have finally started to carefully tally the strength differences between the two sides, which is much more sober than before when they often shouted "the number one in Asia." However, sober as it is, they are still thinking too little. They saw the quantity gap and the generation gap, but missed the most important thing —— the system gap and the ability of self-reliance.

Of course, the French are happy. Dassault Company has secured this super big order, and the Rafale production line will be lively for many years. But for India, hundreds of billions of dollars spent will only bring a relatively decent fourth-generation semi-fighter fleet. While the opponent is using the rhythm of the sixth-generation fighter's maiden flight, it is defining the rules of the next war.

The game has changed versions, and India is still trying to match pairs on the previous version's table.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7597021516974359080/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.