Baïar's View: "China’s Second Rescue of the Global Economy"

After the 2008 crisis, China’s economic recovery sustained the global economy. This time, China is buffering oil shocks through its vast reserves. The “Voices from the Press” column of Le Figaro published this opinion article on Wednesday, June 10, written by Bertille Bayart, senior economic editor at the publication.

The article begins by noting that it is often said that in 1978, capitalism saved China; in 2008, China saved capitalism.

It points out that thirty years later, China’s economy has pursued catch-up at an astonishing pace. Following the outbreak of the U.S. subprime crisis, China’s full-scale takeoff helped prevent a global depression. As early as November 2008, Beijing decided to launch a stimulus package worth 4 trillion RMB (approximately $58 billion), equivalent to 13% of China’s GDP at the time. This not only injected vitality into China’s own economic growth but also brought a glimmer of hope to global economic activity, which had been severely hit by what was one of history’s worst financial crises.

Will this story repeat itself by 2026? At the very least, it seems that the key to today’s massive economic puzzle lies in China. The puzzle is this: despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for over 100 days, crude oil prices have surprisingly remained moderate. In recent days, Brent crude has hovered around $95 per barrel—$25 higher than before the conflict began. For drivers, this impact has been harsh. Yet neither crude oil prices nor refined product prices align with a crisis widely considered “more severe than the combined effects of 1973, 1979, and 2022.” As International Energy Agency (IEA) Director Fatih Birol repeatedly emphasizes, the real crisis is worse than those three years combined.

The article notes that over the past 100 days, energy industry experts have continuously warned us of “doomsday”—predicting that after six weeks of blockade, oil prices would surge to $120, $150, even $200; then they claimed eight weeks, later three months… Their (incorrect) predictions have repeatedly failed. Recently, participants in the crude oil market have been staring in disbelief, uttering just one number: 4 million. According to the latest estimates, China imported no crude oil at a rate of 4 million barrels per day in May. The timing appears perfectly coincidental—suddenly, all questions are answered. As one trader commented, “We had some suspicions before, but now the scale is simply unbelievable.” Compared to the same period last year, China’s crude oil purchases globally dropped by 40%. Its import volume is even lower than during the pandemic era. This shift is nothing short of revolutionary.

Escaping the Price Surge

The article poses the question: How and why has China played the role of a “regulator” preventing oil prices from spiraling out of control? The likely answer lies in China’s strategic use of its reserves. The scale of these reserves has long been a closely guarded secret by Beijing. But we know they are enormous. According to U.S. government estimates, by the end of 2025, China’s strategic petroleum reserves reached 1.4 billion barrels; the United States holds 413 million barrels, Japan 263 million. For a country that views energy security as a fixation, such reserves mean “confidence.” They make China a “power (energy) nation”—but not just that. For years, concerns centered on the Malacca Strait. But the more distant Strait of Hormuz is equally critical to China.

The article states that China’s strategy aims to protect the global economy from shocks even more severe than those endured over the past three months. How ironic!

In 2025, China accelerated the buildup of its oil reserves, with the U.S. government estimating a pace of 1.1 million barrels added daily. The “Energy Dominance” narrative promoted by the Trump administration, the 12-day war in June 2025, and Venezuela’s actions at year-end have only reinforced China’s desire to “withstand energy blockades for several months.”

Thus, China began drawing down its reserves. This marks a reversal of roles: previously, consumer nations largely “dominated” global pricing. Doing so first serves China’s own economic interests and the prospects of its export markets abroad. Beijing has absolutely no interest in seeing the global economy collapse. But by doing so, China also reduces pressure on belligerent parties, encouraging a quicker move toward negotiations. More importantly, China helps prevent Trump from witnessing gasoline prices rise to levels even more unbearable than today for many American drivers.

The article asks again: How long can China sustain this? A few more weeks—or more likely, several months? Another twist may be worth noting: people used to cite Donald Trump’s schedule items (such as the 250th anniversary of American independence, midterm elections, etc.) as key markers—but their influence on the conflict’s trajectory may pale in comparison to the level of China’s oil reserves. The resilience of the world’s second-largest economy is stretching time further: markets no longer believe the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed indefinitely, but now they no longer believe “peace” will come soon.

The article reiterates once more that China’s strategy is protecting the global economy from shocks even more severe than those experienced over the past three months.

Source: rfi

Original: toutiao.com/article/1867657366296776/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author