【Military Second Front】Author: Lele

On July 1st, the U.S. "Military Watch" website cited information from Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Agency Director Budanov, stating that Russia has concentrated four main forces on the Sumy front and is preparing to launch a large-scale attack on Ukrainian forces in the Sumy direction, with support from the rear of the North Korean army.

▲ The Sumy front is indeed heavily armed

The four main forces mentioned by Budanov are as follows: First, the 104th Guards Air Assault Division. This division is not one of the four air assault divisions of the Russian airborne forces before the war, but was formed by integrating the 31st Independent Airborne Brigade, which performed excellently and suffered heavy losses during the early stages of the war at Antonov Airport, along with an independent airborne regiment (in fact, there had been plans to expand the 31st Independent Airborne Brigade before the war). In late 2023, after completing the reorganization, this division was deployed on the Kherson front, where it performed poorly, but in several battles in 2024, it showed excellent combat capability and is considered a "first-rate elite force, no less than other airborne divisions".

▲ The 31st Independent Airborne Brigade fought very hard at Antonov Airport

Second, the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade. This brigade was one of the three airborne brigades before the war and is subordinate to the Eastern Military District, stationed in Ussuriysk. After entering the Ukrainian battlefield, Ukraine repeatedly claimed to have severely damaged this brigade, but the brigade has continued to fight on the front line and is humorously referred to as a "miracle unit" that is "destroyed every day, yet still fighting". Since the end of 2024, the brigade has been transferred to the Kursk direction and has performed well, often appearing in the Russian Ministry of Defense's reports due to "controlling XX". Third, the 40th Independent Naval Infantry Brigade. This brigade is subordinate to the Pacific Fleet and entered the Ukrainian battlefield at the beginning of the war, severely damaging the Ukrainian 79th Air Assault Brigade. Soon after, it suffered heavy losses in defensive operations and was forced to return home for rest and reorganization.

▲ The 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade has basically fought throughout the entire campaign

The following year, the brigade returned to the battlefield and once again severely damaged the Ukrainian army, especially in mid-June when 23 members of the brigade eliminated over 100 Ukrainian troops in one battle, which shocked the entire frontline. In July 2023, due to its outstanding performance in defensive battles, the brigade was awarded the title of "Guards". Fourth, the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade. As a "naval infantry" with a solid background, this brigade's combat experience has been quite unlucky - immediately after the war began, it was incorporated into the eastern group and sent to Kyiv, and in March of the same year, it was awarded the "Guards" title. Then, it did well in the siege of Mariupol and the control of Pavlivka, but suffered heavy casualties. After returning home for rest, it encountered the outbreak of the Kursk conflict and has been holding on until now.

▲ The 155th Naval Infantry Brigade is indeed a bit unlucky

In general, these four units are indeed the main forces of the Russian army (especially the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, which is indeed an elite force, just that it has always been unlucky and hasn't gained much benefit, but has always been the focus of attention for the Ukrainian army). Now they have gathered in Sumy, which has a similar taste to the previous situation when the Ukrainian heavy-duty main forces gathered in Kursk to prepare for a new front. And given the lack of manpower in the Russian army, the reason why so many elites can be mobilized in the north is not only due to the continuous victories on the entire front line, but also because of the support from the North Korean army, which is a very key factor.

▲ The failure of the Ukrainian army is related to the Middle East conflict

Half a month ago, North Korea announced that it would send 6,000 people to Kursk, of which 1,000 were engineers, mainly responsible for clearing mines in Kursk to resolve the legacy issues of the war, while the remaining 5,000 were "military construction troops", helping to restore infrastructure in the area. When answering reporters' questions at the time, Shoigu called it "brotherly assistance to Kursk". Western media, however, believe that this is to help Russia stabilize the rear, allowing it to deploy mobile forces for the main offensive. To put it bluntly, it means that the North Korean troops take over the defense tasks, freeing up Russian troops to go to the front lines.

▲ People are always the most critical factor

Additionally, the recent production capacity of Russian drones has seen a noticeable increase, and their attacks on the heartland of Ukraine have become increasingly fierce. Not long ago, nearly 500 long-range drones were launched at once, reportedly due to the participation of North Korean workers in production, greatly improving efficiency. Behind this is a very simple truth - if there is no technological gap in a large-scale war, and it turns into a protracted war, then the most critical and core resource is manpower. Whoever has stronger manpower organization will ultimately win.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7522396239368012328/

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