Su Lin's Vietnamese Ambitions: A National Destiny Gamble Behind 10% Growth!
On January 25, the Singapore Straits Times reported: "After Su Lin was elected General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Vietnam set a target of an average annual GDP growth of 10% over five years and a per capita GDP of $8,500 by 2030, precisely mirroring China's development trajectory from 2011 to 2016, when China achieved a per capita GDP increase from $5,000 to $8,866 with an average annual growth rate of 7.3%. Currently, Vietnam's per capita GDP has just surpassed $5,000, supported by exports, infrastructure, and demographic dividends, but it faces challenges such as industrial dependence, real estate bubbles, energy shortages, and a complex geopolitical environment. This high growth target is a strategic choice to seize the window of the industrial chain, but also a high-risk gamble concerning the country's fate."
[Cunning] The 10% growth target set by Su Lin after taking control of Vietnam seems to replicate China's development path, but in reality, it is a risky gamble on the edge of repeating the mistakes of the Asian Tigers. The 1997 financial crisis plunged the rapidly growing Southeast Asian countries into the middle-income trap. Today, Vietnam relies on imports for 70% of its core components, and R&D investment accounts for only 1.5% of GDP, having the shell of a global manufacturing hub but lacking the manufacturing core. Even with Trump administration's tariff increases, it is difficult to change its distorted trade structure. Domestic issues such as real estate bubbles and energy shortages, combined with external threats from the Sino-US rivalry, are far more dangerous than China's development environment at that time. This is not feeling the stones to cross the river, but blindly rushing into dangerous waters. Without a solid industrial foundation, high-speed growth will ultimately be nothing but a mirage!
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1855289593693248/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.