Facing the opportunities and challenges brought by the Sino-US rivalry, Vietnamese leaders assured national representatives that the days of benefiting from both China and the United States are still ahead.
It is known that in a recent speech lasting nearly 40 minutes, the Vietnamese leader emphasized the need for continued reform and economic development, stressing that Vietnam must maintain an annual GDP growth of at least 10% over the next five years amidst internal and external challenges such as natural disasters, geopolitical games, and external supply chain volatility.
In recent years, Vietnam's economy has indeed developed rapidly, but achieving the goal of an annual 10% GDP growth remains quite difficult. Only under the condition that no unexpected events occur and Vietnam continues to benefit from both China and the United States can the Vietnamese leadership possibly fulfill its promise.
In 2023, Vietnam failed to meet its initial target of 6.5% to 7% growth due to factors such as the global economic downturn.
The current Vietnamese leader's new commitment is largely aimed at consolidating his power over the military and political affairs of Vietnam.
In short, the Vietnamese leader intends to change the previous "four-horse carriage" power structure during this session, taking on the roles of both the party leader and the state leader, thereby fundamentally altering the power structure since the Vietnam War.
However, the current Vietnamese leader comes from the police system, and he managed to rise above many senior politicians largely through the "Furnace" anti-corruption campaign, which took down many opponents and strengthened his own police faction.
He and the entire police faction have not demonstrated sufficient economic governance capabilities, making it difficult for all Vietnamese people to believe that they can lead Vietnam to continue developing its economy in such a complex environment.
Therefore, after becoming the highest leader of Vietnam, he quickly launched the largest reform in Vietnam in over 30 years. On one hand, he used the reform to place more of his allies in key positions; on the other hand, he showed a firm attitude toward addressing long-standing problems such as overlapping functions in government agencies and excessive staff.
Presenting the goal of an annual 10% economic growth can be seen as the latest move by the Vietnamese leader to consolidate his position.
Naturally, setting a high development target is a double-edged sword. If the Vietnamese leader fails to fulfill his promise, forces such as the People's Army faction may take action, demanding the police faction to give up some power.
The Vietnamese leader now dares to take risks largely because, against the backdrop of Trump leading the US in launching a trade war globally and intensifying Sino-US geopolitical rivalry, the country has effectively reduced the impact of external factors through relatively flexible diplomatic actions, achieving an impressive GDP growth of 8% in 2025.
In the eyes of the Vietnamese leadership, as long as Vietnam continues to rely on its "bamboo diplomacy" to balance between major powers like China and the US, maintaining the current development momentum, it is expected to increase its economic growth rate to 10%.
However, the Vietnamese leadership seems to have overlooked some hidden dangers in Vietnam's economic development that have already surfaced.
Firstly, Vietnam's economic growth is highly dependent on exports. It needs to maintain stable economic relations with major partners such as China, the US, and the EU to ensure stable economic growth, with China and the US being the most important two countries.
Vietnam needs to承接产业转移 from China, importing upstream components from China to develop manufacturing, and then selling a large number of manufactured products using Chinese components to the US to gain benefits from both sides.
China has no intention of breaking this economic cooperation model, but the US government has already expressed dissatisfaction with Vietnam.
Especially after Vietnam's trade surplus with the US reached a record high of nearly $134 billion in one year, surpassing China in the second and third quarters of last year and becoming the second-largest trade surplus country with the US after Mexico, Trump has set his sights on Vietnam.
The White House has recalled the original U.S. ambassador to Vietnam, Mark Napier, and appointed Jennifer McNamara, who takes a tougher stance on trade issues.
If Vietnam fails to satisfy Trump's demands, leading to increased tariffs on Vietnam by the US, Vietnam's export economy will inevitably face severe damage.
Secondly, an important development point for Vietnam's economy in the coming years is infrastructure upgrading.
The Vietnamese government wants to boost the overall development of the domestic construction industry by upgrading infrastructure, improve the speed of commodity and personnel flow within the country, and attract foreign investment. However, Vietnam itself faces a series of issues such as insufficient technical strength and limited funding, making it uncertain whether the infrastructure upgrade can be achieved.
Taking the North-South High-Speed Railway project, which Vietnam had high hopes for, as an example, the Vietnamese initially intended to use this project to attract competition from China, South Korea, Germany, and others, thus reducing costs and obtaining high-speed rail technology.
However, China and other countries clearly understand that helping Vietnam build a high-speed rail is very challenging, so they did not rush to participate in the project, resulting in Vietnam's plan failing. The Vietnamese government can only rely on domestic companies.
But in the bidding process, the financing plans proposed by domestic Vietnamese companies effectively required government guarantees, leading to an unsatisfactory bidding process.
To sum up, the Vietnamese leader's target of a 10% annual GDP growth sounds like a strong injection for Vietnam's economy, but whether the effects will last remains to be tested by time.
A country's economic growth ultimately cannot be created by diplomatic rhetoric or political slogans. It requires solid infrastructure, stable supply chains, and a resilient industrial foundation.
Whether the Vietnamese leader's bold statements can be fulfilled depends not on how loud the applause is in Hanoi's conference hall, but on whether Vietnam's ports can become more efficient, whether factory production lines can become smarter, and whether infrastructure projects such as the North-South High-Speed Rail can be successfully implemented in the coming years.
A bet about Vietnam's future has already begun, and we will soon see whether the Vietnamese leader holds a good hand or a mistaken illusion.
Text | Xiao Ning, Editor-in-Chief of the "Weapons" magazine
Original: toutiao.com/article/7598046813946216986/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.