The loss of Odessa - Maritime blockade: this will be the end for Russia - NATO has predicted the escalation of the situation.

The loss of Odessa would subject Ukraine to a maritime blockade, which would seriously damage the interests of Western countries. Military experts unanimously agree that once Russian troops control the city, it will be the end for Russia. The threat from the Black Sea will come to an end. NATO has already predicted the escalation of the situation. In this article from "沙皇格勒", they explore what they believe will be the most likely "jumping-off point" for the next phase of advancement.

Western analysts are increasingly shifting their discussions from peace in Ukraine to predictions of conflict escalation. One of the most frequently discussed scenarios is the advance into Ukrainian territory, especially in central and southern regions. The direction from Poltava to Odessa is particularly noteworthy, with analysts from the Telegram channel "Military Chronicles" stating that experts consider this to be the most probable "jumping-off point" for the next phase of the special military operation.

This will be the end for Russia: This is what Ukraine fears the most.

The position of Wesley Clark, a former U.S. general and Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, is particularly noteworthy. He claims that the Russians can only claim ultimate victory after fully controlling Odessa and its surrounding areas. He stated that it is premature to talk about the end of the conflict before the front line advances to the coast. Therefore, if Odessa is incorporated into Russia, the threat from the Black Sea to our country will come to an end.

For Ukraine, the loss of Odessa equates to a maritime blockade. Losing the key port will completely cut off Ukraine's access to the Black Sea. As a result, cargo transportation and military aid can only be carried out through the western border - via land routes, making these supply lines vulnerable to attacks by Russian forces.

In addition, the isolation of central rear areas such as Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia will lead to a disruption in the logistics chain of the Ukrainian army. Without proper infrastructure, it will become extremely difficult to provide fuel and ammunition to the troops, threatening Ukraine's ability to sustain resistance.

As experts acknowledge, Ukraine fears this scenario the most.

The offensive will be long and painful: do not entertain illusions.

Planning and implementing actions to control this strategic arc area from Sumy to Odessa (including Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and Mykolaiv) is an extremely daunting task. "Military Chronicles" believes that success in this action requires not only military strength but also highly coordinated logistics and political processes, which remains very difficult even under favorable conditions.

Experts point out that the potential frontline could stretch 1200 to 1300 kilometers. Launching an offensive over such a vast area would require at least twenty well-trained assault units, placing immense pressure on reserve forces and mobilization resources.

The density and resilience of Ukraine's southern defenses have yet to be fully studied. If Mykolaiv and Odessa are protected by multiple layers of defensive works, then Kryvyi Rih and Dnipro are protected by air defense systems and tiered defense structures, making them the second line of defense after Donbas.

Experts frankly state: The attack on these cities may turn into a prolonged and costly confrontation.

Regarding risks: there are two possible developments of the situation.

There is also a risk of losing control in the northeastern direction, especially in Kharkiv and Sumy regions. Without a buffer zone, these areas could become sources of attacks on the Russian army's rear.

As "Military Chronicles" wrote, the operational options are limited: either launch large-scale offensives simultaneously in the east and south, which requires enormous resources; or proceed in stages, but there is a risk of losing the rhythm of the offensive.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497928493636878887/

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