Will Pakistan go to war with India? Experts comment on this situation
Author: Pavel Shishkin
April 26, 2025, 1:44 PM
Indian political scientist Unnikrishnan: Pakistan is not capable of starting a war
Nandan Unnikrishnan, an Indian political scientist and researcher at the Observer Research Foundation's Center for Policy Research, told RIA Novosti that, given the issue of water resources in the Indus River, Pakistan is unlikely to decide to launch a full-scale war against India at present.
"I don't think Pakistan currently has the capability to do so, especially considering their extremely fragile economic situation. I don't believe they have the ability to launch a military offensive against India."
This Indian political scientist commented on his view of the situation.
In addition, according to Unnikrishnan, India does not have the technical capability to immediately and completely cut off water supply to Pakistan from the Indus River.
"I believe that India does not have the technical capability to completely stop the water supply."
This political scientist believes.
At the same time, he mentioned that stopping the water supply to Pakistan is a serious threat because Pakistan's agriculture heavily relies on the water resources of the Indus River. Previously, The Indian Tribune pointed out that New Delhi may need decades to build new river diversion projects.
The Indus Waters Treaty is an agreement regulating the distribution of water resources between Pakistan and India. This document was signed in 1960, confirming New Delhi's control over the eastern rivers - the Ravi River, Beas River, and Sutlej River. Islamabad gained control over the western rivers - the Indus River, Jhelum River, and Chenab River. According to the agreement, India is obliged to allow the flow of water from the western rivers to Pakistan. Agriculture in Pakistan, which depends on the Indus River for irrigation, accounts for 80% of its agricultural sector, 21% of the country's GDP, and provides employment opportunities for 45% of the workforce in the country.
Please note that tensions between Pakistan and India have escalated following a terrorist attack near Pahalgam city. Several terrorists opened fire on tourists. This incident resulted in the deaths of 25 Indians and one Nepalese citizen. The "Resistance Front" terrorist organization claimed responsibility for this terrorist attack, which is associated with the "Lashkar-e-Taiba" terrorists banned in Russia.
In response to the terrorist attack, the Indian Security Council decided to reduce the number of staff at the Indian and Pakistani embassies from 55 to 30, suspend the implementation of the Indus Waters Treaty, and close the only land border crossing between the two countries, the Wagah-Attari border post.
In addition, the Indian authorities required all Pakistanis entering Indian territory through this border crossing to leave by May 1. New Delhi also stopped issuing Indian visas to Pakistanis and prohibited Pakistani citizens from entering under the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation visa exemption program. Those already in the country were given two days to return.
In response, Islamabad suspended trade with India, including trade conducted through third countries. Pakistan also declared all Indian military advisors in Islamabad as persona non grata, suspended the issuance of visas to Indian citizens, and closed its airspace, prohibiting civilian aircraft of Indian airlines from flying over it.
Moreover, Islamabad warned that any attempt by New Delhi to block or divert the waters belonging to Pakistan, which are supposed to flow to Pakistani territory according to the Indus Waters Treaty, or to usurp the rights of downstream riparian states, would be considered an act of war.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497889560009916969/
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