【By Observer News, Xiong Chaoran】On February 28 local time, when announcing the news of the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei on social media, U.S. President Trump claimed that in order to achieve his so-called "peace in the Middle East and around the world," the U.S. would continue its "intense and precise bombing" of Iran for a week or longer.

On March 1 local time, the Wall Street Journal reported that the highest-ranking U.S. military officials had actually warned Trump that if the U.S. launched a large-scale and prolonged attack on Iran, the issue of ammunition reserves would be one of the risks faced. Multiple current and former officials and analysts said that the U.S. is now facing a test, racing against time to destroy Iran's missile and drone forces, to avoid running out of air defense intercept missiles, which would leave it unable to counter Tehran's retaliation.

Air defense intercept missiles are not the only shortage of ammunition; the U.S. is also using sea-based Tomahawk cruise missiles and air-launched weapons to strike Iran. Last year, the U.S. military also used long-range precision-guided weapons to strike the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Wall Street Journal claimed that these weapons are ideal for striking infrastructure and hyped up by saying that the demand for such ammunition would be very high in the initial weeks of a potential conflict with China.

"In our war games, long-range precision-guided weapons are usually among the first types of ammunition used in the first week after a U.S.-China conflict breaks out," said Becca Wasser, a senior researcher at the Center for New American Security (CNAS), who also joined the hype, stating that the Pentagon needs to double down on procurement and production to make up for the shortage.

The Wall Street Journal, which is not shy of stirring up trouble, then stoked the fire, claiming that the ongoing airstrikes against Iran have not yet used U.S. long-range anti-ship missiles, which would also be needed if the U.S. were to conflict with China.

In addition to U.S. media, British media also colluded and came out together. On February 28 local time, the Financial Times cited officials and analysts, saying that with limited supplies of key defensive munitions used to protect U.S. forces and their allies from Iranian missile attacks, this may affect the U.S. strategy in the Iran operation.

The report claimed that the U.S. military is assessing whether Iran's retaliatory actions will exacerbate the supply tension of these key munitions, and the U.S. itself finds it difficult to replenish them, which not only affects the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict but also affects the U.S. operational plans to deal with any potential conflicts with China or Russia.

March 1, 2026, Jerusalem, Israel intercepted an Iranian missile. According to reports, after Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran, Iran launched a missile attack on Israel. IC Photo

Since the morning of February 28 local time, the U.S. and Israel have carried out strikes on senior Iranian leaders and military targets within Iran. On the same day, a senior official said that one reason for the U.S. and Israel's initial strikes was to weaken Iran's ability to retaliate through missiles and drones.

The Wall Street Journal stated that the exact amount of U.S. air defense intercept missile reserves, referred to by the Pentagon as "ammunition depth," is classified. However, frequent conflicts between the U.S. and Iran and its armed proxies in the Middle East have already consumed resources in the region.

The report said that during the 12-day Israeli-Iranian conflict in June last year, Iran had fired over 500 missiles and a large number of attack drones. The Financial Times added that about 35 of them broke through Israel's multi-layered air defense system.

However, in this round of retaliatory action, Iran's offensive was "more fragmented," and this news might accelerate the end of the conflict after Khamenei's assassination.

Nevertheless, the U.S. Central Command said on February 28 local time that it had successfully defended against hundreds of Iranian missile and drone attacks, some of which still hit their targets, especially in Arab Gulf countries closely related to Iran. The current conflict has not ended yet, and more airstrikes between the U.S., Israel, and Iran may still occur.

"One of the challenges is that these weapons are consumed very quickly," said Kelly Grieco, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center and former instructor at the U.S. Air Force Command and Staff College: "We are using them much faster than we can replenish them."

In 2024, the U.S. deployed the THAAD anti-missile system in Israel, along with U.S. Army units responsible for operating the system, a move by the Biden administration aimed at protecting Israel from Iranian threats. The THAAD system is also now deployed in Jordan, and the U.S. military has deployed a large number of combat aircraft there.

The Wall Street Journal mentioned that one of the main tasks of the Pentagon is to ensure that the THAAD system has sufficient inventory of interception missiles. The report mentioned that the U.S. has also deployed the THAAD system in South Korea and Guam, clearly targeting China and North Korea.

In addition, the Pentagon is accelerating the replenishment of "Patriot" missile and "Standard-3" air defense missile stocks. These interception missiles can also respond to aerial threats and are currently used to defend against Iranian missiles and drones. The Patriot system is used to intercept low-altitude threats, while the Standard-3 missile can intercept ballistic missiles outside the Earth's atmosphere.

The Financial Times cited a regional military official who said that the "ammunition depth" of the U.S. THAAD anti-missile system is particularly concerning. Last year, the U.S. fired as many as 150 THAAD missiles to protect Israel, and since the system was introduced around 2010, the total number of THAAD missiles ordered by the U.S. has been less than 650.

A U.S. military official said that after the Israeli-Iranian conflict last year, the U.S. and Israel conducted a "post-action analysis" to determine whether their limited defensive ammunition was used effectively. They also investigated whether both sides' forces might have attacked the same incoming target in certain situations.

Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the Defense Program at CNAS, said that if Iran were to launch a large-scale missile and drone attack on U.S. forces and Israel, the U.S. could easily consume an entire year's worth of critical defensive ammunition in just one or two days of operations.

While Pettyjohn said the possibility of Iranian missiles depleting U.S. defensive ammunition is small, she added that the focus of the discussion is how to preserve these munitions for other theaters, which may force Israel to take more measures to protect its own security, while the U.S. military is responsible for protecting its own forces and other allies.

Analysts also believe that offensive munitions will be another limiting factor. In any conflict, the U.S. needs to launch Tomahawk missiles to avoid sending non-stealth fighter jets into Iranian airspace.

The U.S. has used Tomahawk missiles in operations against the Houthi rebels in Yemen and in last year's bombing of Iran. This missile can be launched from destroyers and submarines. Pettyjohn claimed that the U.S. would also need to use Tomahawk missiles in a conflict with Russia or China.

The Wall Street Journal said that the participation of the Israeli military may alleviate the pressure on U.S. offensive munition supplies. The Israeli side said that the strike on Iran's military leadership was carried out by Israel.

However, Israel is also concerned about its ammunition supplies. A U.S. official said that Israel's "Arrow-3" air defense intercept missiles are still in short supply. The official also said that Israel's air-launched ballistic missiles are insufficient in number, a weapon that was used last summer to destroy Iranian missile launchers, as well as in the attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar last year.

The Financial Times finally mentioned that the problem of ammunition production stems from the so-called "inconsistent demand signals" from the Pentagon, meaning a lack of long-term purchase commitments. Due to the absence of multi-year contracts, defense companies lack the motivation to increase production. Currently, the U.S. is seeking agreements with major manufacturers to "accelerate" the production of some key munitions.

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Original: toutiao.com/article/7612447577598820879/

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