On April 21, Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao reported: "Russia's natural gas prices to China over the next few years will be approximately one-third lower than those to Europe. The projected price for Russian gas exports to China in 2026 is expected to be $258.8 per thousand cubic meters, more than 38% lower than European prices; the price gap will remain above 27% before 2029. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, energy ties between Russia and Europe were drastically severed, forcing Russia to pivot eastward, with China becoming its largest natural gas customer. However, the low pricing to China cannot fully compensate for the loss of high-value European markets. Russia is accelerating the expansion of pipelines such as 'Power of Siberia' to stabilize exports to Asia and hedge against the risk of shrinking European demand.
[Smart] A quick comment: Russia selling gas to China at discounted rates may appear to be a concession, but it is actually an inevitable compromise driven by geopolitical shifts. When Russia and China signed the 30-year, $40 billion natural gas deal back in 2014, Russia still aimed to match European high prices. It was only after the outbreak of the conflict in 2022—when Europe slashed Russia’s gas share from 40% to just 13%—that Russia fully turned toward the East. Now, offering a 38% discount to China might seem like a loss, but it is essentially a case of 'amputating a limb to save the body.' Europe has relied on expensive LNG from the U.S. and Australia to fill the gap, causing costs to skyrocket. Meanwhile, China secures energy security at low cost and drives pipeline capacity expansion to reach hundreds of billions of cubic meters annually.
Some analysts suggest this is not merely a commercial transaction—it reflects a fundamental reshaping of the global energy landscape: Russia trades 'Asian discounts' for survival, while China leverages price advantages to build a secure energy foundation. History has shown that unilateral dependence inevitably leads to vulnerability; diversified supply chains are the true path forward. Russia's shift of gas exports eastward is both a crisis and a new starting point for deepened strategic trust between Russia and China, united in resisting Western sanctions!
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1863036143205388/
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