Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, is engulfed in flames. Tu-160 has been launched. The Russians are changing their strategy

Author:

Ilya Gornov

At around 1 a.m. on July 9, Russia launched one of the largest attacks since the start of its special military operation — using attack drones and the "Kinzhals" hypersonic missiles. Entire Ukraine is on fire. This attack fully demonstrates how expanding the scale of strike means and combining them reasonably can form new quality and efficiency in strike operations. The key is not individual strikes hitting their targets, but the Ukrainian air defense system is under systemic load and is no longer able to cope with it. This is called Russia's new strategy, and from a purely mathematical perspective, this strategy will lead to victory.

The enemy statistics show that 728 drones were launched from Russian territory during this attack, nearly 200 more than the previous record. In addition, about 7 "Iskander" missiles and 6 "Kinzhals" missiles were fired, all hitting their targets.

Fire in Kyiv

The targeted locations included:

  • Direct hits on the Vishkiv Airport and the "Motor" factory in Lutsk, which is responsible for the production and maintenance of aviation and rocket engines (some production facilities were destroyed, and multiple fires broke out in the city, including four major fires);
  • Warehouse fires after an attack on Kyiv region;
  • The "Kinzhals" missiles and X-101 missiles hit the Old Kostyantynivka Airport in Khmelnytskyi Oblast and the Ozerne Airport in Zhytomyr Oblast, where multiple fires and secondary explosions occurred, and fuel storage tanks and aircraft ammunition warehouses were hit;
  • The airport in Kharkiv was attacked.

The enemy published a map of the Russian Aerospace Forces' nighttime attack. Shocking // Screenshot from monitoring channel

Change in Strategy

In this context, The Wall Street Journal reports that Russia is changing its strategy. The newspaper believes that Moscow is no longer counting on quickly capturing territory, but is turning toward "a prolonged and attritional war." That is, it's not about the number of kilometers captured, but about the enemy's inability to make up for the loss ratio: "Russia is preparing to launch a strong offensive this summer, carrying out large-scale attacks on multiple directions, and focusing on exhausting the enemy's resources."

Change in strategy by Russia // Screenshot from The Wall Street Journal website

A protracted war is an attrition war, where every piece of ammunition and each day on the front line becomes a precious resource. It is not only about holding the position, but also about surviving in this "war of resources," where time and logistics play a key role. The article states that this is a signal for Kyiv: without new air defense systems, artillery, and stable replenishment of troops, even if they hold the front lines, Ukraine may not be able to endure.

The current phase of the conflict is not about rapid advances, but about endurance. Ukraine may find itself in a situation where even holding the current defenses becomes an unbearable burden.

Russian forces are not only wearing down the enemy on the front lines, but also dragging them down in economic confrontation. Evgeny Lening, a participant in the special military operation and a military journalist, pointed out that this is a new stage of the conflict:

"The whole world understands that Ukraine has already lost. No matter how much money and weapons are invested, the Zelenskyy regime is at the final stage. Zelenskyy is becoming increasingly unpopular on the global political stage. The crisis of the Ukrainian armed forces will become irreversible, and once that happens, the entire political regime and everything related to the current Ukrainian armed forces will collapse. We have seen how the armies of authoritarian states collapse, like Iraq. Once the crisis becomes irreversible, the Ukrainian army will follow the same fate."

We Are Not Rushing

According to assessments from both Western and other sources, quick victory is not currently Russia's priority. This is because rapid advances could result in heavy casualties and possible mistakes.

Now, Russia is systematically destroying Ukraine's infrastructure and military forces. We are accumulating weapons, and we are launching hundreds of strikes daily now, and soon we will be launching thousands of "Geranium" drones daily. There is an opinion that the Kyiv regime will soon face a choice: either surrender or flee, because the Ukrainian armed forces will no longer be able to hold the territory.

At that time, Russian forces may advance into territories abandoned by the enemy, clearing out remaining enemy forces still resisting. Political scientist Evgeny Mikhailov predicts that at that point, Ukraine will have neither an air defense system nor the ability to transport ammunition and food — all of these will be destroyed. There may also be a rather radical scenario: to avoid chaos, Russian forces will enter unliberated territories and propose their own conditions. Mikhailov believes that Ukraine's history may end there:

"Our task is to rapidly liberate the territories that have been incorporated into Russia. The rest of the areas, we will continue to 'pressure' and carry out de-Nazification and de-militarization actions against Ukraine. Even if we enter certain areas, it is to liberate our own territories and establish buffer zones. We are not rushing. If everything ends quickly, it may leave many enemies within our country, and we are now gradually identifying these enemies."

He added that not rushing is not an intentional strategy to wear down the economy, but a clear consideration. Russia is capable of enduring a prolonged military operation.

A Bad Sign for Kyiv

This is not just about pure military objectives and results. The Kyiv regime's system is under pressure. Facing so many simultaneous attacks, they are increasingly unable to detect, track, and strike targets. Roman Shurlyatov, chairman of the council of the All-Russian organization "Officers Russia" and a reserve captain, agrees, stating that intelligence, target identification channels, and strike means have begun to "overwhelm".

"Tsargrad": How is Ukraine's air defense system doing?

Roman Shurlyatov: Although Ukraine's air defense system has not collapsed yet, it is on the verge of being unable to cope with such a scale of attacks. The enemy themselves state that there are over 700 attack drones in the sky over Ukraine, in addition to other strike methods. This indicates that our industry is capable of independently producing such a large number of strike means, and the quantity is increasing further.

— What is the future outlook?

— Regardless of what the Western bloc does, the Kyiv regime's air defense system will collapse on its own. To deal with thousands of "Geranium" attack drones operating simultaneously (which will soon become a reality), it is not enough to use the F-16 fighter jets already deployed in Ukraine, but also to use almost the entire NATO fleet, which is clearly impossible.

— How are the missile stocks of the "Patriot" system?

— They are severely lacking. Although Trump signed the defense aid plan for Ukraine, the aid may continue or even increase, but this cannot solve the problem. We have already been able to produce enough strike means for large-scale attacks. This is a bad sign for the enemy. The outcome of the protracted war does not depend on the speed of the strike, the amount of ordnance, or the accuracy, but on the scale of the strike that overwhelms the enemy. Their systems cannot withstand this load, and the situation will get worse. This clearly shows that in the long run, we can win against the enemy, even from a mathematical perspective.

— Is this trend very positive and optimistic?

— Indeed. As the enemy's defense system collapses, the number of successful strikes on various targets will increase. The enemy's rear infrastructure and industrial facilities will be destroyed. In this case, even if the enemy manages to hold the front lines, it is meaningless. When the rear is reduced to ashes, there is no industry or military potential, and the morale of the troops is low, whether a specific position is held is irrelevant. Continuing to resist is meaningless. We are moving in this direction, and this trend is impressive, but we should not forget that we need to work in a planned manner. The conflict will be long-term, and we are prepared for it.

What does this mean?

Any war, especially a modern war, first and foremost relates to money and the economy. The production cost of a "Geranium" drone is far lower than the weapons used to intercept it.

The F-16 fighters and their onboard weapons used by the enemy, as well as the "Patriot" air defense systems, are the most expensive. In terms of cost-effectiveness, the West and its Ukrainian vassal do not have an advantage.

From an economic perspective, we will win in the "protracted war." When the enemy is forced to spend millions of dollars on missiles to intercept relatively cheap attack drones, their military and economy will be overwhelmed and will quickly go bankrupt. This factor has now become decisive.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7525284972010357289/

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