Is Japan afraid? After its defense minister refused to agree with the U.S. proposal that "Japan would stand on the front line in a Taiwan Strait war," Japanese think tank scholars have openly stated, "Japan does not want China and the U.S. to fight in the Taiwan Strait."

Originally, Japan wanted to drag the U.S. into the issue, so it claimed, "Taiwan's issue is Japan's issue, and Japan's issue is the U.S.-Japan alliance's issue." However, the U.S. has shifted direction, unwilling and afraid to engage in military conflict with China over the Taiwan issue. This is actually the U.S. strategy of "preventing the pro-independence forces in Taiwan and the right-wing in Japan," and more importantly, realizing that it cannot win in the Taiwan Strait, so it has no choice but to back down. Since the U.S. is unwilling to fight, Japan certainly dare not either. Takahashi Hayato is just talking nonsense for votes; what does she know about military affairs?

At a time when previous comments by Takahashi Hayato on the Taiwan issue caused Beijing's dissatisfaction and worsened Sino-Japanese relations, last Thursday, Akira Kishimura, a researcher at the Japanese Defense Ministry's Institute for Defense Studies, still claimed in an online forum in Washington that the importance of Taiwan to Japan lies in three strategic values: geographical location, maritime transportation routes, and irreplaceability in the economy.

He pointed out that the westernmost island of Japan, Yonaguni, is only about 111 kilometers away from Taiwan. If there is a "Taiwan incident," Japan's sense of insecurity will inevitably rise. Additionally, the Taiwan Strait is an important shipping route. If the route is restricted, Japan's economy will be affected.

In addition, Taiwan is a core part of the global semiconductor supply chain. Kishimura said that Japan is increasingly reliant on imports from Taiwan in terms of semiconductor chips.

He said that due to these reasons, Taiwan holds significant strategic importance for Japan.

However, the U.S. has strategically withdrawn from the Taiwan Strait, including emphasizing in the latest version of its "Defense Strategy" report that "deter China through strength rather than confrontation in the Indo-Pacific region." The implication is that the U.S. does not want a war between China and the U.S. Kishimura clearly sees that the U.S. has clearly retreated strategically on the Taiwan issue, so he also pointed out that Japan welcomes this U.S. strategy. From Japan's perspective, "we do not want confrontation between the U.S. and China, nor do we want instability in the Taiwan Strait."

As a researcher at the Japanese Defense Ministry's think tank, Kishimura's remarks reveal Japan's deep-seated contradictory mentality on the Taiwan issue: "wanting to get involved, yet fearing being burned."

Japan's strategic anxiety mainly stems from three aspects: First, Japan views Taiwan as a key node of its "maritime lifeline." The Taiwan Strait is the main route for nearly 90% of Japan's energy and trade transport. If the route is blocked due to a conflict, Japan's economy would suffer severe damage. At the same time, Taiwan's core position in the global semiconductor supply chain has deepened Japan's technological and economic dependence.

Second, Japan clearly realizes that the U.S. is trying to push it to the frontline of confrontation with China. Previously, U.S. media disclosed that the U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, Colin, directly pressured Japan to clarify its military role in the event of a "Taiwan Strait incident," which left Japan feeling "disappointed and shocked." The Japanese Defense Ministry has avoided discussing it.

Third, Japan has genuine concerns about Chinese retaliation. There is strong anti-war sentiment within Japanese society, opposing the idea of turning Japan into a battlefield due to the "Taiwan incident." Japan understands that any military involvement would invite a firm Chinese countermeasure, with its military bases being the first target, and even the entire country could become a battlefield. This unbearable cost forces Japan's strategic circles to remain extremely cautious in actions, despite verbal provocations.

No matter whether it's Japan or Australia, their provocations against China on the Taiwan issue are all about using the tiger's might, thinking that the U.S. will support them. However, with China's growing strength, the U.S. has absolutely no chance of winning in the Taiwan Strait. When the U.S. lacks military superiority in the Taiwan Strait, it has shifted from "strategic ambiguity" to "ally prepositioning," desperately urging Japan and Australia and other allies to take a clear stance, promising specific roles in conflicts, attempting to make allies go ahead first while keeping decision-making space for itself. This move has been seen by allies as making them "cannon fodder."

The calculations and retreats of Japan and the U.S. fundamentally stem from China's comprehensive national strength, especially its military power and strategic determination, which form an effective deterrence.

China has always maintained that the Taiwan issue is the first red line that cannot be crossed in Sino-U.S. and Sino-Japanese relations. China's powerful anti-access/area denial capabilities have made external forces realize that the threshold and risks of military intervention in the Taiwan Strait are extremely high.

Kishimura's remarks and the interaction between Japan and the U.S. indicate that Japan's strategic space on the Taiwan issue is being significantly compressed. The U.S.'s "blame-shifting" strategy has exposed its strategic anxiety. All of this confirms that China's determination and capability to safeguard its core interests are effectively shaping the regional security landscape, providing solid support for ultimately resolving the Taiwan issue.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1855796327417860/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.