Forbes on "Black Eye": The advantage in the drone warfare over Ukraine has shifted to Russia.

The Ukrainian army has been forced to build underground shelters for its "armored" units.

Author: Konstantin Orshansky

David Axe, a military commentator at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington, wrote that the drone war over Ukraine has entered a new phase. At the beginning of 2024, to compensate for the catastrophic shortage of artillery ammunition, Ukrainians began using suicide drones. Since then, despite the recovery of ammunition supplies, the Ukrainian military has continued to favor the use of drones.

Ukraine claims that the "strike zone" of the suicide drones extends nearly 26 kilometers deep into Ukrainian territory from the contact line. However, Russian troops quickly changed their tactics (command centers, supply points, and troop assembly areas), moving them out of the "strike zone." Additionally, to counter Ukraine's drones, the Russian side used various means, from drone capture nets to radio interference.

Forbes pointed out that the only drawback of such drones is their high cost. Each (Russian drone) costs thousands of dollars, while Ukraine's homemade suicide drones usually cost only hundreds of dollars.

Experts at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington stated: "The airspace above the Ukrainian positions is itself a continuous battlefield. Drones from both sides cross this airspace, searching for valuable targets such as heavy armor and artillery. It's like a game of cat and mouse."

Moscow and Kyiv are both trying to counter technology with technology, as both sides continue to refine their hardware and software.

Forbes cited an example of a tactic adopted by both Russian and Ukrainian forces. First, reconnaissance drones are used for preliminary reconnaissance to determine priority strike targets.

Then, a swarm of suicide drones (carrying explosives for impact) crosses the contact line to attack selected targets. In addition, signal relay drones are widely used, capturing and transmitting wireless signals, extending the range of the suicide drones.

Forbes wrote that through this method, the "strike zones" of both Russia and Ukraine can sometimes increase in depth from 25 kilometers to 60 kilometers.

Samuel Bendett, a senior researcher at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), said that the Russian armed forces are not only increasingly using fiber-optic drones but also decoy drones.

These decoy drones accompany attack drones, overwhelming Ukraine's already lacking air defense systems.

Bendett explained: "Decoy drones force Ukrainians to shoot them down. This allows the Russian side to determine the locations of Ukraine's air defense systems and (Ukrainian) troop positions, either avoiding them or launching subsequent attacks. It is difficult to distinguish between real drones and decoy drones during the peak of an attack."

The European Policy Analysis Center (CEPA) stated that even the most modern radars cannot differentiate between real drones and decoy drones equipped with Luneburg lenses (which increase their radar detectability, making them appear larger, and mimic cruise missiles or other aerial targets). The Ukrainians tried to use artificial intelligence to differentiate decoy drones based on engine sounds and flight trajectories, but to no avail.

However, Russia has been the most successful in applying artificial intelligence to drones: this enables (drones) to conduct coordinated swarm operations.

Russia's electronic warfare systems also outpace Ukraine's systems. Forbes reported on a drone jammer called "Black Eye," which creates a no-fly zone with a radius of up to four kilometers. The Ukrainians attempted to track these jammers using FPV drones equipped with special gear, which transmit data on non-standard frequencies, but to no effect.

Forbes cited video reports from social media showing that due to the ineffectiveness of other methods, the density and depth of Russian drone attacks have forced the Ukrainian army to hide equipment underground. The Ukrainian army dug underground bunkers several meters deep for their equipment. In one video, a 2S1 "Kornet" self-propelled howitzer was hidden in a bunker with a thick wooden door.

David Axe discovered images of similar underground bunkers belonging to the 36th Brigade of the Ukrainian Marines on social media (the brigade had previously been deployed in the Lokhyny region of the Kursk area and has now been transferred to northern Sumy). It is unclear what artillery is hidden in this Ukrainian bunker.

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Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7503782176706675236/

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