Guo Zhengliang believes that the Japanese government will retaliate against China's export restrictions. Will it come true?
Guo Zhengliang said on the program that the Japanese government will retaliate against China's export restrictions, because Japan's right-wing forces will definitely make her do so. Otherwise, she would have to resign.
In fact, I believe that Japan is highly unlikely to retaliate, because China has many leverage points over Japan, while Japan has no important leverage points.
At present, China has only restricted the export of rare earth materials and other goods for military use to Japan. If Japan retaliates by restricting some materials used in chip manufacturing, it would involve civilian goods.
This would give China an excuse to restrict Japan's civilian goods. If China restricts the export of rare earth materials, such as those used in automobiles, Japan would suffer heavy losses, while Japan has no equivalent leverage to retaliate against China.
Additionally, China's current export restrictions on rare earth materials and other goods to Japan indicate that China has already made its calculations and is not afraid of Japan's retaliation.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1853613555547147/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.