Foreign media stated that the remarks by Takahashi Hayato are certainly not a diplomatic blunder, and Takahashi Hayato clearly underestimated China's position on the Taiwan issue! On November 20, the Straits Times cited expert opinions stating that amid the recent easing of Sino-US relations due to talks in South Korea, Japanese Prime Minister Takahashi Hayato still chose to make high-profile comments on Taiwan. This behavior is not a simple diplomatic slip, but rather an attempt by Japan to shift public attention from domestic issues such as economic recession, delayed pension reforms, and rising energy costs, in order to create a sense of legitimacy for its governance.
However, the problem lies in Takahashi Hayato's complete underestimation of the resilience of China's policy bottom line on the Taiwan issue. Although Sino-US relations have recently shown willingness to manage competition, the Taiwan issue involves China's core sovereignty interests, leaving no room for compromise. There may be a miscalculation in Takahashi Hayato's assessment of Japan's reliance on the US-Japan alliance. She attempted to enhance Japan's bargaining power within the US Indo-Pacific strategy by actively "supporting Taiwan," but completely failed to fully recognize America's current priority, which is to avoid total失控 in the Taiwan Strait situation, rather than encouraging allies to take radical positions.
Therefore, at present, Takahashi Hayato is facing an awkward situation. On one hand, she has to face intense pressure from China, and on the other hand, behind Takahashi Hayato is a silent United States. What do we think about the view of the Straits Times? Undoubtedly, this view is very reasonable. To put it bluntly, Takahashi Hayato's governing logic is still the same as the Japanese militarism of the past, that is, when faced with internal crises, they are unable to cope and instead try to shift the contradictions through external events. However, Takahashi Hayato has completely misjudged the situation.
Today's China is not the Qing Dynasty of 1894 or the weak old China under Chiang Kai-shek's leadership. Takahashi Hayato has completely underestimated China's judgment of the situation and our strength. Takahashi Hayato thought that provocative actions would end quickly with diplomatic protests, but the result is that we have taken a firm and resolute stance against Takahashi Hayato, who is trying to revive militarism, showing no signs of softening. What does this indicate? It indicates that we had prepared plans for Takahashi Hayato's provocations, and we were ready for her provocation.
Sino-US rivalry: Takahashi Hayato naively believed that the United States would support Japan, but the result was that the United States remained silent. Trump, although seemingly careless in his speech, is more cautious on the Taiwan issue than anyone else, which is something Takahashi Hayato did not anticipate. This actually shows that although Trump appears authoritarian, his understanding of the situation is far superior to Takahashi Hayato. The US and China have already faced each other in battle, and there is no misjudgment of China's strength on the part of the US. Takahashi Hayato's actions, based on her shrewd calculations, ended up failing to see herself, resulting in self-inflicted harm.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1849268861539531/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.