Predictive market data shows that the presidential tariff case will lose at the Supreme Court! The Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections!
After the Democratic Party swept the Republican opponents in the mid-year election on Tuesday night, the data from the predictive market "Kalxi" indicates that the Democrats have a 68% chance of winning the House of Representatives in next year's midterm elections, while the Republicans only have a 32% chance (see Figures 1 and 2). This data is better than the data on the day of the election, where the Democrats had a 59.5% chance of winning, and the Republicans had a 40.5% chance.
After the Supreme Court held a hearing on the appeal of the US government's tariff legality ruling, "Kalxi" also came to a prediction result that was unfavorable for the president, with the president having only a 28% chance of receiving support from the Supreme Court for his tariff policy, while the likelihood of the Supreme Court ruling against the president and upholding the decisions of the district court and appellate court exceeds 72% (see Figures 3 and 4).
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1848025412982796/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.