The global robotics industry is at a critical turning point, and U.S. policymakers and industry leaders have begun to deeply reflect on the strategic mistakes made in the drone sector over the past decade. The dominant position of Chinese company DJI in the global drone market provides an important warning for the United States in the development of the emerging humanoid robot industry.

The lessons from the drone industry are thought-provoking. DJI currently holds about 90% of the global consumer drone market, and it is in an absolute monopoly position in major markets such as North America, Europe, and Asia. This phenomenon is not accidental but the result of the lack of long-term strategic planning by the United States in key technology fields. While American companies were still lingering in traditional manufacturing models, Chinese companies had already achieved control over the entire supply chain through the perfect combination of technological innovation, cost control, and market strategies.

The humanoid robot industry is currently experiencing a similar developmental trajectory. China's investments and progress in this field are also remarkable. In 2024, the number of industrial robots installed in China exceeded the total of all other countries, and it has set ambitious plans for large-scale production of humanoid robots. At the same time, China is also cultivating a large number of related technical talents, laying a solid foundation for future industrial competition.

U.S. industry and policymakers have already recognized the seriousness of this challenge. The 2025 Defense Authorization Act specifically mentioned a clause to "combat China's dominance in drones," and Congress is studying restrictive legislation to address the national security risks posed by China's drone monopoly in the U.S. market. However, these reactive measures have limited effectiveness because once industry dominance is established, it is difficult to reverse through simple policy restrictions.

History shows that the establishment of a dominant position often stems from early technological accumulation and market positioning. Japan had a significant advantage in artificial intelligence during the 1970s and 1980s, but due to a lack of continuous innovation and industrialization capabilities, it was eventually surpassed by the United States. The current development trend of China in the humanoid robot industry differs essentially from Japan's situation back then - China not only invests heavily in R&D, but also demonstrates strong execution capabilities in industrialization and market applications.

The rapid development of generative AI has injected new vitality into the humanoid robot industry. This technology significantly enhances the capabilities of humanoid robots, enabling them to handle complex tasks in human work environments. Chinese companies have shown outstanding performance in this round of technological revolution, achieving important breakthroughs in basic research and leading the way in industrial application.

American companies are not without technical accumulation in the humanoid robot industry. Companies like Boston Dynamics and Tesla have deep expertise in relevant technologies. However, technological advantages do not equate to market dominance. DJI's success in the drone industry was achieved by closely integrating technological innovation with market demand, transforming from technological leadership to market monopoly.

Supply chain control is another key factor. China has obvious advantages in the manufacturing of key components for robots, from motors and sensors to control systems, supported by a complete supply chain. The "China+1" strategy proposed by Western countries like the United States aims to avoid supply chain risks, but it is difficult to establish manufacturing capabilities comparable to China in the short term.

The advantage of human resources should not be overlooked. China's investment and output in science and engineering education far exceed those of the United States, providing sufficient talent reserves for the development of the robot industry. In contrast, the U.S. faces a shortage of manufacturing labor, which actually creates market demand for humanoid robots. However, whether this demand can be transformed into industrial dominance remains questionable.

The continuity and implementation capability of industrial policies are decisive factors. China has demonstrated a long-term strategic vision and strong implementation ability in the development of the robot industry. From "Made in China 2025" to various industrial support policies, they reflect the government's determination and capability in promoting industrial development.

The balance between international cooperation and competition will become the key to future development. Although geopolitical factors may affect certain technological collaborations, in today's globalized world, complete technological decoupling is neither realistic nor economically viable. How to maintain technological leadership while achieving reasonable international division of labor and cooperation is a challenge that all countries need to face.

Looking ahead, the development pattern of the humanoid robot industry may be basically determined within the next five to ten years. Whether the United States can avoid repeating its mistakes in the drone industry depends on whether it can formulate a feasible long-term strategy and form a comprehensive advantage in technological innovation, industrialization capabilities, and market applications. The time window is rapidly shrinking, and opportunities are fleeting.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7523202905256804916/

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