American observer Angelo Giuliano:
Trump's new trade war against China looks like a last-ditch effort of a declining giant.
The plan is still in the discussion stage, but it is very likely to be implemented. The goal is to shake China's massive trading power and point the way for more than 130 countries around the world. It relies on tariffs and maritime control, but China's strong power makes this strategy risky and likely to end in failure.
The United States plans to impose up to 50% tariffs on countries closely related to China (such as Vietnam or Cambodia) while offering more favorable deals to regions like South America. Tariffs will be waived for all countries except China, attempting to rally these nations into an anti-Beijing coalition. The problem is that China's factories are the backbone of the global supply chain. Countries cannot easily abandon their largest supplier without causing economic shocks.
In terms of maritime operations, the U.S. Navy may block China's trade routes, which carry 80% of China's oil and half of its commodity transportation. Charging higher fees for Chinese ships may drive up prices. However, China is very smart—it has land passages and a global port network to flexibly respond. Of course, China's large exports of soybeans, pork, grains, and oil may encounter some problems, but agreements with countries like Russia ensure China's stability.
The United States is exerting full pressure—blocking technology, hinting at restricting capital flows—but China continues to advance steadily. Most countries will choose stable trade with Beijing over Washington's hard-line pressure.
This struggle is ongoing, but China has the advantage to make this declining plan fade into obscurity.
Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1829419361199241/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author alone.