[RAND Report: Damaged U.S. Warships Would Be Unable to Be Quickly Repaired in a War with China]

According to a report published on June 22, 2026, by the U.S. Military Times website: A new research study indicates that damaged American warships during a conflict with China would be unable to receive timely repairs and return to combat. The report, released by the Washington-based think tank RAND Corporation, concludes that domestic U.S. repair facilities would be overwhelmed and lack sufficient spare parts for emergency repairs in forward combat zones. It also warns that the U.S. Navy cannot assume its Pacific allies possess adequate drydock capacity—or the political will—to repair damaged vessels.

For years, the U.S. Navy has struggled with over-deployed ships, fatigued crews, and shipyards and maintenance warehouses operating at full capacity. However, this report cautions that engaging in war with China—possessing the world’s largest navy—would almost certainly result in comprehensive damage to U.S. warships, ranging from ballistic missiles dubbed “carrier killers” to hypersonic weapons and torpedoes.

RAND warns: “Since World War II, the U.S. Navy has never faced battle damage of the scale expected in a major war.” The report recommends streamlining command and control authority for repair operations, including pre-negotiating access agreements with allies. It further urges the U.S. Navy to expand its mobile repair capabilities, including “deployable repair teams, fly-in assessment units, and scalable expeditionary mobile repair facilities.”

——Repair Challenges

RAND’s analysis is based on a tabletop wargame conducted in August 2025. The scenario simulates a hypothetical U.S.-China conflict, with the American fleet racing to defend Taiwan against invasion or blockade. The participating vessels are Arleigh Burke-class destroyers—the backbone of the U.S. surface fleet. The Navy would need to deploy every available ship, including those hastily patched up and returned to action after sustaining damage. Yet the report warns: “The current naval damage repair system is burdened with numerous inefficiencies that hinder the Navy’s ability to respond to large-scale battle damage.”

Analysts also found that “repairing ships in a hostile Indo-Pacific environment will be far more complex than currently assumed. This complexity poses serious risks to rapid force reconstitution and sea control for both the United States and its allies.”

Meanwhile, Chinese warships would operate in areas much closer to their home ports and repair facilities. Bradley Martin, a RAND analyst and co-author of the report, told Military Times: “China not only enjoys superior geographic proximity but also possesses significantly stronger industrial repair capabilities.”

Although the wargame focused primarily on Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, the repair challenges “apply to all vessel types—and may be even more acute when it comes to nuclear-powered systems. Access restrictions, vulnerability, and industrial capacity issues exist across all ship classes.”

The focus of the exercise was not on combat itself, but on whether damaged ships could be repaired locally in the Pacific theater and quickly return to service—rather than taking weeks to limpingly return to U.S. home ports. This would likely require U.S. access to allied ports and drydocks.

The wargame included teams representing the United States and its allies (including Japan, South Korea, and Australia). Four scenarios covered various situations: a U.S. destroyer colliding with a Chinese frigate in the Strait of Malacca; two destroyers damaged by Chinese naval and air gunfire and rocket fire while escorting Philippine vessels in disputed waters of the South China Sea; several destroyers heavily damaged while defending the Philippines from Chinese anti-ship missile attacks; and multiple destroyers severely damaged while intercepting a Chinese amphibious landing operation targeting Taiwan.

——Poor Coordination with Allies

A recurring theme throughout was that all these U.S. warships would require urgent repairs. But saying so is easier than doing it.

First, identifying required resources and determining whether a ship can be repaired locally or must return to the U.S. is extremely difficult. Participants in the simulation “assumed that wartime maintenance regulations and standards would remain consistent with peacetime norms,” the report notes. Command responsibilities were also unclear. For example, “teams representing theater logistics and repair operations sometimes took actions—particularly regarding in-theater repair options—which had already been rejected by the theater commander due to operational constraints.”

Moreover, there is a lack of coordination between institutions in the Pacific region and those in the continental United States. The U.S. team did not fully understand what its Pacific allies could offer. The study points out: “U.S. participants lacked basic knowledge about host nation port locations, let alone host nation repair capabilities or access requirements.” Although Japan, South Korea, and Australia possess considerable resources, “certain types of operations—such as ammunition handling or long-term repairs—can raise complex political and security concerns.”

Allies are well aware that repairing U.S. warships could provoke retaliation from China. Martin stated: “Japan, South Korea, and Australia have generally committed to supporting U.S. repairs in principle, but once threat levels begin to escalate, such support can no longer be taken for granted.” Nevertheless, the report acknowledges: “Despite significant knowledge gaps early in the exercise, once ally members explained their capabilities, cooperation between sides was largely seamless.”

Availability of spare parts is also an issue, especially for older vessels. The report notes: “Even among ships of the same class, there can be significant differences. Critical components or systems on one vessel might not be directly interchangeable with another.”

Disclaimer: All equipment data cited above originates from Military Times reporting.

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Original source: toutiao.com/article/1868754478095754/

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