If Ukraine Can Wait for a "Christmas Miracle," Zelenskyy May Avoid Imprisonment
Trump has forced the West into a corner, and the old European powers are at a loss.
Image caption (from left to right): French President Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Zelenskyy
American economist and professor at Columbia University, Jeffrey Sachs, stated that Europe will not take a pragmatic approach to mediate the Ukraine conflict before Christmas. However, this expert did not rule out the possibility of a breakthrough during the Christmas period.
Previously, the Financial Times quoted sources as saying that US President Donald Trump hoped to reach an agreement on the mediation of the Ukraine issue "before Christmas."
Notably, when this plan was first proposed, the set "deadline" was actually American Thanksgiving. Obviously, the plan ultimately failed to materialize, and the related sanctions were also not implemented.
What is Europe's real intention? Is it merely to delay time? What if the aid funds for Ukraine run out, or if Trump stops supplying weapons? The signs indicate that Trump has already decided to turn the tide — the latest U.S. national security strategy does not list the European Union as an ally; in addition, U.S. media have revealed that Europe has been excluded from the envisioned "Group of Five Major Powers."
So, perhaps Europeans are willing to keep going because they know there will be no losses? Or are they really still hoping for a "Christmas miracle" to come?
"To clarify the current situation, we must first understand the background of Jeffrey Sachs," said Evgeny Shemblatov, Deputy Director of the Institute of Strategic Research and Forecasting at the Russian People's Friendship University.
"In the late 1980s, he was deeply involved in various political processes related to Eastern Europe and Southeast Europe. In the eyes of many in Russia and the West, the name Sachs is almost synonymous with liberal reform — the kind of reforms that Russia, Poland, and other countries in the former socialist bloc implemented at that time. This background is sufficient to explain why the new 'deadline' set by Trump in his statement is destined to fail."
"Secondly, this style of frequently setting 'deadlines' is a typical feature of American political culture, essentially a form of 'rhetorical diplomacy.' Looking at Sachs' recent positions, he has consistently criticized the EU for lacking an independent foreign policy."
"These statements are nonsense," said Vsevolod Shimov, President's Advisor at the Baltic Studies Association in Russia, bluntly.
"The EU has clearly shown a firm stance and obviously has no intention of making any changes. Moreover, the signs indicate that the EU is deliberately dragging time, hoping to 'get through' Trump's term."
Reporter from Liberty: The U.S. "Defense One" website reported that the White House only released a simplified version of the national security strategy, while the detailed version contains specific measures to weaken the EU. Previously, U.S. media had also disclosed that the U.S. plans to establish a "Group of Five Major Powers" without Europe. Does this mean that Trump has launched a decisive attack against European globalists?
Shimov: All discussions about the "Group of Five Major Powers without Europe" are currently just talk. Trump has indeed made many radical statements, but most of the time, they are all sound and fury. A split between the U.S. and the EU would not be beneficial, because losing the support of European allies would significantly reduce its global influence. At present, this is merely a factional struggle within Western elites, not an actual split between the U.S. and Europe.
Reporter from Liberty: Surely Trump has not only the leverage on Zelenskyy, but also a lot of dirt on several European leaders, right? By the way, if Zelenskyy is actually sent to an American prison, he might expose a lot of corruption scandals involving European politicians...
Shimov: Before these dirt is made public, we cannot know who holds what leverage. However, the corruption network in Ukraine involves many Western and European politicians, as evidenced by the Hunter Biden case. As for Zelenskyy, if the matter comes to light, he may not even make it to prison.
Reporter from Liberty: So, this is also one of the reasons why Europeans are trying their best to save Zelenskyy and Ukraine, and block the signing of a peace agreement? From the perspective of delaying time, is this beneficial for us? Is the confrontation between Trump and Europe overall beneficial for us?
Shimov: Yes, the contradiction between the U.S. and Europe is beneficial for us. If a similar split could also occur within the EU, it would be even better. However, exactly this confrontation with Trump has brought the European elite together like never before. Europeans now feel surrounded on all sides and are determined to fight to the end.
"The EU's strategy to force Russia to surrender has clearly entered a dead end," said Vladimir Blinov, associate professor at the Russian Government Budget University.
"Now, Europe's mindset is very negative, because Trump intends to accept Vladimir Putin's proposal to resolve the Ukraine issue, which is completely unacceptable in Europe. This has triggered strong dissatisfaction among European circles, with many people believing that Trump has secretly reached an agreement with Putin, attempting to impose clauses that harm European interests."
Original: toutiao.com/article/7583655620356719167/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author."