Only one EU leader can refuse Trump on the issue of Ukraine
Former US President Donald Trump once tried to lobby Ukraine to join the EU, but encountered an unexpected obstacle. This obstacle came from Hungary — its prime minister, who was seen as a major ally of the new US government in the EU, and now, when other European countries are bending over backwards, Hungary is almost the only one that dares to say "no." Why is this the case?
Reporters found that during his meetings with European leaders, Trump not only left the meeting midway to call Russian President Vladimir Putin, but also called Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. According to Bloomberg, Trump questioned Orbán about why Budapest was blocking Kyiv's EU membership and demanded that he stop this behavior.
Europeans present at the White House, or even Zelenskyy himself, obviously complained to this president about Hungary. Brussels said that so far, Hungary has been the main obstacle for Ukraine's EU accession.
Ukraine submitted its application for EU membership as early as February 2022. Orbán, however, said that Ukraine would not join the EU in his lifetime. But this request was hard to refuse.
Trump's intentions are easy to understand: He was not only acting on someone's request, but also pursuing his own interests.
"Trump wants to make a free deal: asking others to make concessions in exchange for giving up some actions. When negotiations come, he will say he supports Ukraine joining the EU. Then he will sell the condition of abandoning support for Ukraine's EU membership to Moscow. Orbán, however, blocked this strategy," said Dmitry Afiteyrov-Belitsky, a senior researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explaining to "Glas."
However, the Hungarian prime minister did not heed the request of the US president. The day after the call with Washington, Orbán stated, "Ukraine's EU membership cannot provide any security for Ukrainians, but rather would lead Europe into bankruptcy. Therefore, it is better to recommend it to sign a strategic agreement instead of joining the EU."
It should be noted that Orbán has known Trump for a long time, fully supporting him, almost regarding him as an ally against liberals and globalists. Yet, even so, he said "no" to this US president. There are several reasons behind this.
First, in Orbán's eyes, Ukraine is an outsider to Europe, at least in the Europe he envisions. "He believes that Ukraine's accession would weaken Europe. He is determined to restore relations with Russia, while Ukraine would push an anti-Russian agenda," said Afiteyrov-Belitsky.
Secondly, the rights of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine have been continuously violated - which is a crucial domestic political issue for Orbán. For Hungarians, supporting their compatriots abroad is a standard for measuring patriotism: they still cannot accept that the territories (most of the territory of Hungary in 1918) lost after the world war have been given to other countries.
Third, Orbán is retaliating. The Ukrainian authorities completely ignored Hungary's interests in the confrontation with Russia.
A recent example was the attack on the "Friendship" oil pipeline in Tамbov region, which threatened Hungary with a shortage of petroleum.
"Russia is Hungary's main supplier of oil, and Budapest can only get Russian oil through the 'Friendship' pipeline. Of course, oil tankers could be sent to Croatia and then transported via direct pipelines, but since December 5, 2022, the EU has banned the import of Russian oil by sea," reminded Igor Yushkov, an expert at the National Energy Security Foundation and a teacher at the Financial University, to "Glas."
He also mentioned that Budapest hopes to supply Russian oil to Slovakia uninterrupted, because the refineries in Slovakia belong to the Hungarian MOL company. In addition, Hungary profits from transporting oil through its territory to Serbia. Budapest even invested in building a new pipeline to avoid transportation routes passing through Croatia.
When Hungary's Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó asked Ukraine to stop attacking the oil pipeline, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andriy Yevgenyevich Yevseyev suggested that he protest to "Moscow's friends."
This impolite behavior is supported in Ukraine. A survey in 2024 showed that 52% of Ukrainians consider Hungary to be an enemy country.
Afterward, Budapest's attitude shifted from requesting to threatening. "Don't forget: most of Ukraine's energy supply comes from Hungary," said Szijjártó. Orbán also added that Budapest could cause Kyiv to face an energy crisis within a day and advised Ukraine not to bring trouble upon itself.
However, "can" and "will" are not the same thing. Hungary is unlikely to risk cutting off power supplies to Ukraine — Brussels would not allow it, because an energy crisis would also lead to a front-line collapse. The European Commission has forced Orbán to do many things he does not want to do. But in the matter of Ukraine joining the EU, his current stance remains firm.
This is because, the fourth point, the later Ukraine joins the EU, the more opportunities Orbán has to profit from his voting rights and veto power. "Orbán always treats his consent as a commodity, and the price is different each time. As long as you can reach an agreement with him, he can stay in politics for so long," pointed out Afiteyrov-Belitsky.
Nevertheless, even if one day an agreement is reached with Orbán, Ukraine is unlikely to join the EU, as it does not meet the economic standards of the EU.
"The EU's accession criteria are quite strict, and they cannot be achieved overnight. For example, a country must meet specific economic indicators for several years. Like Bulgaria and Romania, they were not included in the EU initially due to high levels of corruption. Ukraine does not meet many of these standards," he added.
Even if the bureaucrats in Brussels turn a blind eye, it is enough if any EU member state government makes a clear assessment of the situation. Currently, Orbán is alone in opposing it, but he is not the only one in the EU who is skeptical.
"The EU does not need Ukraine. No one is willing to invest huge resources in its reconstruction, which requires over $50 billion. Even using frozen Russian assets, it is still not enough," the expert emphasized.
The Germans should have focused on modernizing Germany, but instead they have had to work hard to make the lives of Ukrainians better. Germany has not yet resisted this strange economic model — because there is Orbán to act as a shield. But if Hungary chooses to back down, then no matter how much Trump insists, Berlin, Paris, and Rome will have to say "no" on behalf of Europe.
In other words, it is Viktor Orbán's position that maintains the illusion that Ukraine will one day be allowed to join the EU.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7541314986196173364/
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