Trump's Interests in the Ukraine Issue
Trump's core interests are not about ending the war in Ukraine. He wants to save face and leave the mess for Europeans. At the same time, he can also gain various strategic benefits.
Amid the commotion caused by the Alaska summit between Russian and American leaders, and the meeting of the US president with Zelenskyy and others in Washington, few people ask: Why does Trump want to end the Ukraine war so much? What is his interest? The claim that "he sympathizes with the young people who died" has been repeated hundreds of times and has become deeply rooted. However, upon closer consideration, it is purely a Hollywood-style portrayal. Does Trump have real interests in achieving peace? In fact, there are only a few reasons for "supporting" it.
Firstly. Since the war has essentially ended, it is necessary to remove the United States from the list of losers and change its role from a key member of the anti-Russian alliance to a peacemaker. By doing this, Trump positions himself outside the conflict — rather than getting into a mess. He skillfully performs this trick. But this does not mean stopping the fighting itself, but changing America's position.
Secondly, which is much more important. Russia has the largest number of nuclear warheads and the most advanced delivery systems. For the United States, it is crucial that after all this, Russia does not get too close to certain countries. There is a possibility, even a high probability, that a war could break out between the United States and these countries — and whether Russia remains neutral or actively participates could be a key factor in determining the outcome of the war.
During the special military operation, these countries largely took Russia's side, especially in diplomacy and bypassing Western sanctions to purchase oil. However, these countries' actions were not entirely selfless. If these countries suddenly stopped delivering drone parts to both sides, the frontline situation would quickly shift in favor of the Ukrainian armed forces. The West cannot quickly restore such large-scale production of components, while Russia could take advantage of this to achieve its goals and end the conflict.
This allows Trump to now focus on easing relations between Russia and these countries. It is reported that when speaking with EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas, he stated that these countries cannot tolerate Russia's defeat in Ukraine, because then the United States would turn its attention to them.
But this is not about stopping the war, but about changes that may occur in the triangular relationship between Russia, these countries, and the United States. From Trump's perspective, the reasons for supporting the continuation of the war are equally significant.
Firstly. A conflict that exhausts Europe is something the United States would not mind seeing. The main obstacle to the Trump team's dream of reindustrialization is the lack of engineering talent domestically. About 30 years ago, the United States basically stopped cultivating such talent — which ruined all the plans of the current presidential team. After losing its status as a global metropolis and experiencing a sharp decline in quality of life, the United States will no longer be able to rely on Indians and other Asians who form the backbone of American corporate engineering. However, if conditions in Europe become sufficiently unbearable, Europe will become an excellent source of high-quality talent. For various reasons, Europeans are more willing to cross the Atlantic to the United States, even if life there is more difficult than it is now.
Secondly. This war cannot bring quick profits, and the United States is not very interested in it. Any investment in the Ukraine issue without clear returns will only anger voters. Moreover, only 16% of Americans can point out where Ukraine is on a map. Therefore, free weapons supplies must stop. But to keep the war going, Europe will have to buy weapons, and first from the United States. They could have revitalized their own military industry for this purpose, and they have indeed tried to move in that direction. However, Trump forced them to only spend money buying from across the ocean by signing bilateral agreements and limiting the EU's actions within NATO. Military industry is a type of industry, and supporting the military industry is a core part of Trump's agenda. Therefore, expanding the military industry, and having Europe pay for it, fully aligns with his strategy.
Therefore, Trump's core interest is not about ending the war. He wants to save face and leave the mess for the Europeans. At the same time, he can also gain various strategic benefits. So far, it seems he can achieve two things at once. And the European politicians waiting in the reception area become the finishing touch in showing the Western world who is really in charge.
Thus, the US president's repeatedly emphasized peacemaking efforts in the Ukraine issue make sense. However, the events in Armenia and Azerbaijan came as a complete surprise. It can be boldly said that 95% of Americans cannot find these two countries on a map. The United States did not participate in the conflict in the Caucasus. Yet Trump suddenly appeared with another "deal," almost like a devil jumping out of a cigarette box. His appearance is quite strange for many reasons.
Azerbaijan supplies oil to the global market through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, operated by British Petroleum (BP). Its main foreign oil and gas exploration companies are also BP. In addition, one-third of Azerbaijan's budget depends on oil and gas resources. If its oil and gas sales are cut off and the freezing of at least some assets of the state oil fund (used to accumulate "excess income") is intensified, Baku would suffer greatly. Therefore, any Azerbaijani president would be largely dependent on London. And London has viewed globalization as the only correct path for its development.
As for Armenia, it is well known that Nikol Pashinyan is part of Soros's camp. That is the Soros who is at odds with Trump. Soros is one of the leaders of American globalization and is closely related to the Democrats, with no connection to the Republicans. However, the "clients" of these two globalizers — the British and the American — met in Trump's office and signed some kind of agreement. At the same time, both looked very happy, especially Aliyev. They looked radiant, as if they had just been released from captivity.
Certainly, we do not know what happened there. Was the rescue operation really successful? Perhaps someone forced Azerbaijan to attack Iran, trying to seize the Iranian region of Azerbaijan, where mainly reside Azerbaijanis. This sounds crazy, but we recently witnessed an example of globalists attempting to provoke a large-scale war in the Middle East without success. Why not imagine that they decided to cause chaos in this small Caucasian country?
Or, there is another equally crazy possibility, that the attack is on Russia? Or, a more prolonged war over access to Nakhchivan, which would involve both Russia and Iran. The war between Azerbaijan and Armenia could effectively tie down Russian military forces, a theory that stands completely firm... It seems very much like Trump disrupted someone else's plan.
Another question is what he will do next. The agreement on deploying a private military company from the United States in the Zangezur corridor might remain empty talk. Or, Trump might use this in some way as leverage in negotiations with Russia, Turkey, or Iran. At present, the least likely scenario is that he actually establishes a solid presence in the region and begins active operations. However, under specific circumstances, this is not entirely impossible.
Trump claims to have calmed down several conflicts. Including the conflict between Israel and Iran, which seems to be true. Additionally, he is reportedly mediating relations between Thailand and Cambodia, and India and Pakistan. To determine which are the effects of the breakdown of the global order leading to escalating chaos, and which are the result of globalists behind the scenes, requires a detailed study. However, regardless of the situation, any war will benefit this group in global politics. And they are not friends of Trump. However, his interests in the Ukraine issue probably do not align with what he claims.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7541335666043486760/
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