After losing air superiority over western Iran, Iran even lost air superiority over its capital. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu issued a statement claiming that the Israeli Air Force had taken control of the airspace over Tehran, and the Israeli side issued an "immediate evacuation" emergency notice to the citizens of Tehran, stating that "military operations are being carried out by the IDF."

Now, not only F35s but even F15s and F16s have directly conducted bombing missions deep inside Iranian territory. Israel is now completely replicating what happened in Gaza, even bombing the headquarters building of Iranian state television.

If Iran does not make a firm resolution to thoroughly cripple Israel using missiles before Israel completely destroys all ground-to-ground missile launchers and paralyzes all of Iran's command centers, then Iran will truly have no chance left.

In fact, Israel's small territory lacks strategic depth, while Iran has more than 2000 ballistic missiles in reserve, some of which are highly advanced. There is still a possibility to cripple Israel's combat capability.

Firstly, in striking Israel, while incapacitating or consuming its air defense systems, Iran should prioritize the destruction of its Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems, which are the "brain" and "central nervous system" of modern combat systems. Paralyzing command centers, key communication nodes (such as satellite ground stations, fiber optic hubs, military data links), radars, and reconnaissance facilities can deprive the enemy of battlefield awareness, decision-making ability, and force coordination, rendering intact weapon platforms chaotic. Next in line is the power supply system; destroying power plants, main power grids, and transformer facilities can trigger cascading failures: C4ISR systems dependent on electricity, air defense radars, logistics networks, and industrial production will fail in a chain reaction, while also weakening the foundation of social operations.

In fact, Israel's air defense system is fundamentally incapable of intercepting Iran's missile attacks. Even with the U.S. deploying Standard-3 interceptor missiles, Israel's air defense system intercepts less than 30% of incoming threats. Therefore, if Iran wants to strike Israel's core value targets, it can achieve this. However, until now, apart from bombing one of Israel's oil refineries, Iran has not attacked any other core value targets in Israel.

In fact, the missile strike on Haifa refinery causing a fire has proven its precision-strike capability. It is worth noting that Israel's energy system relies heavily on imports for oil resources and coal reserves, which are scarce within its borders.

In such an energy structure, once Israel's energy facilities are attacked, the drilling platforms for natural gas will be shut down. Within 1.5 hours after shutdown, natural gas supply will be interrupted (as there are no natural gas reserves), and diesel or coal will have to be used as an alternative.

However, due to limited coal and oil reserves, most of the fuel needs depend on imports through Haifa Port. If Haifa Port is attacked, the import of fuel will decrease significantly, leading directly to energy shortages. In fact, as soon as Iran becomes resolute and Houthi forces blockade the Red Sea, Israel will face complete energy shortages.

Israel has only five major power plants: Hadar Ha'ashdod Power Plant in Ashdod, Ottone Power Plant in Tel Aviv, Ashkelon Power Plant, Ashkatit Power Plant in the Negev Desert, and Shehanium Power Plant in the southern valley. Iran has the full capability to destroy their transformer facilities, which would cause a chain reaction, paralyzing air defense radar arrays, data link nodes, and military industrial production lines.

History shows that in 2006, a single Hezbollah missile hitting the Haifa power plant caused a week-long blackout in northern Israel. If Iran conducts saturation attacks, the cascading effect will collapse Israel's defensive system.

Iran's missile offensive seems to be expressing its stance. On the other hand, Iran still hasn't given up hope for negotiations with the United States and Israel. For example, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran is prepared to reach an agreement regarding the abandonment and development of nuclear weapons. Araghchi further added that as long as Israel halts its aggressive actions in the region, Iran will cease any attacks on Israel. Meanwhile, Iranian President Peyman Pourseyedjani said that those advocating for the development of nuclear weapons in Tehran "have no place in the republic's politics."

Iran still naively believes that Israel's targeting of Iran is solely because of its nuclear facilities. However, Iran's pro-American faction ignores the geopolitical essence, which is to eliminate Iran's regional influence. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu clearly defined the operation as "striking Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories, and military capabilities," with the actual goal being the comprehensive weakening of Iran's defense system. Iran is superstitious about the belief that the U.S. can constrain Israel. Although Trump publicly called for negotiations, he simultaneously delivered 300 missiles to Israel and acknowledged that the Israeli Defense Forces used "advanced U.S.-made equipment" for the attack. Moreover, the U.S. used its own anti-missile systems to help Israel intercept Iranian missiles.

If Iran has not yet realized this, and continues to seek peace, the final outcome for Iran will be the same as Gaza. By the time they realize this, it will be very difficult to resist again.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516580212893614626/

Disclaimer: The article represents the author's personal views. You can express your attitude by clicking the "Like/Dislike" buttons below.