The conflict between Israel and Iran entered its fourth day as both sides continued to launch mutual airstrikes. On June 15, the Israeli Defense Forces announced that they had carried out large-scale strikes against multiple Iranian weapons production bases; early in the morning on June 16, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have launched a new round of missile attacks against Israel, even "causing their own air defense systems to attack each other."

What are the current damages Iran has suffered from the attacks? How does Iran plan to retaliate against Israel, how does it view America's role, and what strategies will be formulated to address the increasingly intense regional conflict? Mohammad Marandi, a professor at Tehran University, and Pascal Lottaz, host of the "Neutral Institute" project, held an online exchange to share his views. The following is an interview transcript based on the video, translated for reader reference only and not representing the position of Guancha Observer Network.

[Text by Mohammad Marandi]

Pascal: Hello everyone, this is Pascal from the Neutral Institute. It is Sunday, June 15. Just a few minutes ago, I interviewed Professor Sayed Marandi from Tehran University via video link to get his insights on the current situation in Iran and the overall conflict between Israel and Iran. The connection was unstable, with frequent interruptions and even complete disconnections several times. Therefore, the video you are about to see is not as smooth as usual; we had to edit it into segments to ensure all parts were clear and audible. There may be some interference at certain moments, making it hard to hear everything clearly, but his insights are highly significant, and his analysis of the current situation, as well as Iran's response to last Friday's attack, is worth understanding deeply. After editing, my conversation with Professor Sayed Marandi is as follows:

Pascal: Thank you for joining us today, Professor Marandi. How have you been recently?

Marandi: I'm doing well, thank you, Pascal. Please note that over the past few days, the government has reduced internet speeds for security reasons. If the connection quality is poor, it is due to the current situation, and I apologize for any inconvenience caused.

Screenshot of Professor Marandi's online dialogue

Pascal: You don't need to apologize at all. Clearly, you're going through a very difficult situation, and I can still hear you. Could you tell us what the situation in Tehran is like right now? How was your Sunday morning?

Marandi: Tehran is currently very quiet, roughly eight hours or more, I can't be sure. Israel will definitely strike again today, there’s no doubt about that. But Iranians, as you can see, have already retaliated fiercely. Last night, all regions of Israel were hit hard. We expect this war to continue for quite some time. Therefore, Iran's armed forces are operating efficiently, and the performance of the air defense system is better than before. Of course, the missiles and drones Iran has launched are producing the expected effects.

Pascal: Was Iran hit by another wave of attacks last night? One of Iran's largest natural gas fields (South Pars) was attacked, and continuous strikes occurred in Tehran. How do you assess the damage so far?

Marandi: The damage Iran has suffered so far is very limited. While it may seem significant on social media, Iran is a vast country. Moreover, many of the images you see are not necessarily accurate; some come from other battle zones.

Those missile systems that Israel thought were destroyed were decoys; Israel spent heavily destroying worthless things. So the current situation is optimistic, with high morale. The Iranian public is indignant about Western countries openly supporting Israel's aggressive actions.

Women and children in our country have been brutally killed. In one air raid, they destroyed an entire apartment building, killing 60 people, including 20 children. The way Israel's regime attacks is indiscriminate, as shown in Gaza, Lebanon, and other areas they have bombed. They attack civilians and armed personnel without distinction, considering everyone as "Amalekites," "non-humans," and themselves as the chosen people above all others. When other ethnic groups are degraded to subhumans, whether women or men, children or soldiers, shopkeepers or ordinary citizens, none of it matters anymore.

Pascal: Could you tell me what targets in Israel Iran is aiming at currently?

Marandi: All targets are related to Israel's military or regime strength, either as retaliation for facilities attacked within Iran (such as refineries). If civilian facilities are hit, it is because Israel interfered with the flight paths of Iran's missiles or drones using electronic means. However, all target choices are retaliatory in nature.

In other words, regardless of how Israel's regime attacks Iran, except for civilian targets, Iran will strike similar targets in Israel as retaliation. The difference lies in the fact that Israel deliberately attacks apartment buildings to assassinate specific targets, but innocent family members and even neighbors end up being killed. This is not the goal of Iran's strikes. To reiterate, if Iran's missiles or drones hit civilian targets in Israel, the only possibility is due to Israel's electronic warfare interference.

Intercepting Iranian-launched missiles in Tel Aviv - Reuters

Pascal: What about Iran's nuclear program? We know the Natanz facility was attacked, not a nuclear power plant but an Iranian nuclear facility. Is there any latest news about radiation levels? Does the air strike pose a danger to nearby residents?

Marandi: The Israeli regime tried to contaminate the environment and cause radioactive leaks through air strikes on nuclear facilities. Western countries obviously support this, as they witnessed Israel's attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities. The EU, the United States, they all support these criminal acts.

But your audience needs to know that since the U.S. invaded Afghanistan and Iraq and surrounded Iran, Tehran has begun moving all core assets (in whatever form) underground. This work has been ongoing. A few years ago, after Israel conducted drone attacks in Iran, this process accelerated. Over the past year and a half, everything has been progressing faster.

Therefore, all key assets of Iran, whether missiles, drones, their core production lines, or facilities related to the nuclear program, are buried deep underground, beyond the reach of Israeli authorities. Currently, they are only attacking surface structures, but our nuclear program's key facilities are not located on the surface.

Israel invested heavily in this air strike but did not achieve the expected results.

Pascal: What is the status of Iran's air defense system? On one hand, we know Israel has the capability to penetrate Iran's air defense network; on the other hand, reports claim Iran "shot down two F-35 aircraft." Is this true?

Marandi: Iran's air defense system is functioning well, indeed shooting down Israeli aircraft, many drones, and several missiles. Of course, many of Israel's weapons have penetrated the air defense network, which is the nature of war.

Despite the entire West defending the Israeli regime and assisting in its aggression, Iran's missiles and drones can still break through Israel's interception network, with even more impressive results, as Iran's missile warheads are much larger than those of Israel.

Pascal: Are you concerned that Israel might escalate the conflict to a nuclear level? We know they have nuclear weapons. Is this conceivable?

Marandi: Your question actually reveals the madness of the Israeli regime and the absurdity of Zionism, leading someone to imagine such a scenario. I believe that if anyone seriously considers using nuclear weapons against Iran, Iran's nuclear policy will immediately change. I think until now, the U.S. and Israeli authorities have realized they are powerless against this. Therefore, this forms a strong deterrent.

But I think other countries in the world would also consider such action (attacking Iran with nuclear weapons) excessive, which would impact Israel's standing internationally, far surpassing the current situation.

But importantly, if the Israeli regime intends to move in this direction, Iran will immediately change its stance on the nuclear issue. Iran does not want nuclear weapons, has never wanted to develop them, and there is ample evidence proving this. During the Iran-Iraq War, Western countries provided Saddam with chemical weapons to attack Iran. When senior Iranian officials requested permission to develop similar weapons as retaliation, Supreme Leader Khomeini refused. He said these are inhumane weapons, and Iran has never manufactured them, and the attitude towards nuclear weapons is the same today.

Comparison of before and after the damage to the surface part of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility - CNN diagram

However, if faced with life or death, Iran's stance on the nuclear issue will naturally change. I believe there is a huge moral gap between Iran and the Israeli regime, one without principles, morality, or humanity, while the other is the opposite.

Pascal: As we can see, Iran has not yet targeted numerous U.S. assets in the Middle East. Is Iran's current strategy to limit the conflict to just Iran and Israel? Because Iran has threatened to attack U.S. facilities, and we know Americans are deeply involved in Israel's strikes, we all know this is a joint effort by the U.S. and Israel. But Iran has not attacked any U.S. targets yet. Do you think this situation will continue? Is Iran still being cautious about the U.S.?

Marandi: Iran does not want this war; it was imposed upon us. Iran also does not want to trigger a global economic collapse. Because if the U.S. and Iran go to war, it means the oil and gas supply in the Persian Gulf and West Asia will be completely cut off, not just for a day or two, weeks, or months, but for years on end. This will completely destroy the global economy, far exceeding any crisis in modern history, and cannot be compared to the Great Depression of 1929-1930.

Iran does not want such a scenario and is striving to control the escalation of the conflict. However, the influence of the U.S. and Israeli regimes extends throughout the region, assisting the Israeli government in offensive and defensive actions from their military bases in Turkey, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, and elsewhere, including outside the Middle East.

But Iran's red line must not be crossed. If the U.S. directly participates in hostile actions against Iran or launches direct attacks, Iran will immediately retaliate and view those Arab micro-states in the Persian Gulf as accomplices, who will pay the price. I think it is clear that under such circumstances, those regimes will quickly collapse. The UAE, Kuwait, and others need to pressure the U.S., otherwise, once the U.S. makes a wrong decision, these regimes will end.

Pascal: What do you think could help ease the current situation? After being attacked, Iran is retaliating against Israel. What specific steps are needed to return to a ceasefire?

Marandi: The Israeli regime must step back and guarantee that such actions will never happen again. The Israeli regime must deeply understand that this is a catastrophic mistake and that they have not succeeded. This is the only way to end the current conflict. Ordinary Zionists must realize that such aggressive behavior will incur extremely heavy costs.

Iran will continue self-defense counterattacks, ensuring that only when the aggressor stops its actions and meets our conditions will a ceasefire occur. So far, Iran is determined to punish the Israeli regime and will continue to do so until the other side deeply recognizes its mistakes.

Pascal: Israel's attacks on Iran have been condemned by many countries, and China has recently clearly stated that this is an unwarranted attack on Iran, a member state of the United Nations. What actions will Iran take at the UN level? We know that the operation of the UN Security Council is hindered by the veto powers of the U.S. and the UK. But this is not the only way. Do you know Iran's plans to seek international support?

Marandi: I think Iran has already achieved this goal. Iran participated in negotiations, and the whole world saw Israel's aggressive actions, recognizing them as baseless attacks. Iran was originally willing to negotiate, including Trump's dishonest and hypocritical performance. All of this helps international society and public opinion sympathize with and support Iran. I believe Iran will continue to hold this position.

In the past 20 months, Israel's and the U.S.'s genocidal actions in Gaza, similar actions in Lebanon, and their use of extremist organizations such as ISIS and al-Qaeda local branches in Syria have all changed the world's perception of Iran, especially in the Global South. Even public opinion in some Western countries has shifted.

Photo of Iran's "underground missile city" facilities displayed by Iranian media in 2019

Therefore, Iran will continue to push forward, demonstrating through its posture of retaliation and deterrence against the Israeli regime how the U.S. negotiates deceptively while secretly conspiring with Israel to commit massacres and invasions. The Iranian government will continue to implement these policies in the coming weeks.

Pascal: The Netanyahu government stated in its declaration regarding the attack that Israel must strike Iran because Iran continues to issue threats to "wipe out Israel," and Israel takes these threats seriously. What do you think about this? Does Iran really want to eliminate Israel?

Marandi: Iran has never, and will never, talk about militarily eliminating the Israeli regime. Iran has previously said that the apartheid regime ruling Israel, which promotes racial supremacy, must end, and the Palestinian people must receive equal humane treatment. For Netanyahu and the Zionists, this means total destruction. For other nations in the world, it means acting in a normal and rational manner.

The Netanyahu regime has always been dishonest toward Iran, especially Netanyahu himself, who is very dishonest. For nearly forty years, he has consistently claimed that Iran is about to build nuclear weapons, just weeks, months, or years away from possessing nuclear arms. For nearly forty years, he has been saying this. There is quite compelling evidence, but you won't hear it in Western media. Because Western media is controlled by the same elite group comprising neoconservatives and Zionists.

But the truth is that Netanyahu and his regime have been lying about nuclear weapons for years. They never show this to the public; you can only learn the truth through other media channels.

From the beginning, Iran has made its position clear: the apartheid regime in Israel must end, just like what happened in South Africa, following the same model. This has always been Iran's position.

Pascal: So, do you think Europe will take a more neutral stance on this war at this moment? We have seen European governments and media shift their stance on the Palestine issue, starting to criticize Israel more critically. What do you expect from Europe?

Marandi: Europe is slightly wavering but still supports the Israeli regime. The only reason for their attitude shift is that public opinion has turned against the Israeli regime. So, Europe is merely going through the motions, putting on a facade. But they are still assisting the Israeli regime in attacking Iran and are currently participating in the aggression and genocide in Gaza.

The only factor that could change Europe's policies and help end the conflict is if they see the Israeli regime in trouble and the serious harm caused by Iran's retaliation. Iran is committed to bringing down this Israeli regime. As signs of the Israeli regime's failure become more apparent, Europe and the U.S. will gradually begin looking for an exit route for their allies in Tel Aviv.

Pascal: Professor Marandi, while we are talking, the situation is still evolving. Thank you very much for taking the time to explain this in detail. We hope to contact you again in the coming days or weeks to get the latest updates. We greatly appreciate your candid expression of opinions.

Marandi: Thank you very much. I apologize for the poor internet connection. But as I mentioned earlier, they have reduced the speed for security reasons. Hopefully, after a few days, when the Israeli regime fails and everything ends, people will be able to hear higher-quality discussions. I am always open to talking with you, and I am very grateful for this opportunity.

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